Actual economic effects cont...

[ManonLescaut]

Telegraph: Britain could be up to 70 billion worse off if it leaves the single market IFS warns

The respected economic think tank said that Britain could enjoy an extra 4 per cent in national income if it remains in the single market, equivalent to two years worth of growth.

The report claims that while leaving the EU will free the UK from an estimated £8 billion a year of budget contributions, the loss of trade from Brexit could hit tax receipts by a larger amount.

It found new trade deals would be unlikely to make up for lost EU trade, which accounts for 44 per cent of British exports and 39 per cent of service exports.

Telegraph: Treasury looks at quitting the single market

Officials say the talks have revealed a willingness among some top figures to scrap passporting despite early calls to stay in the single market from some quarters...

Mr Boleat cast doubt over the UK’s ability to secure a Norway-style deal to remain in the single market. He said accepting free movement of people and paying large sums to Brussels while accepting its rules would not be politically acceptable.

The BBA wants the UK to leave the single market but retain unimpeded access to EU markets.

SummerL there is a short video on the FT website that you might find interesting: video.ft.com/5175119461001/Gilts-and-sterling/Markets

misti that is very interesting. Basically saying the link between the two that has suddenly broken is not as much of a problem as it appears due to other factors in other markets. But that it's something to keep an eye on.

ING traders move to London

www.standard.co.uk/business/brexit-cheer-as-ing-traders-move-to-london-a3369236.html

Strange world isn't it?

Not what one would expect. Why are they doing it? They must think the pound has fallen too far and London is a good long term bet and this is their chance to get in as cheaply as possible.

Sounds like good news, hopefully shows a degree of confidence from some companies.

Did you actually read the full story Topsy?

IMG, as part of restructuring and job losses, are moving 40 traders to London for the time being. They said that in the case of a hard Brexit they would have to rethink.

Wouldn't moving them straight to Frankfurt or wherever more straight forward? Why take the risk?

Can you quote the lines to support you claims?
The part that supported your conclusion were generic quotes about moving some operations to Europe and the words of the French finance minister (could not have expected him to say otherwise really).

Did you read other parts such too such as

"support staff are likely to follow,",

"Percy Rueber, head of ING Financial Markets, said: “The intention to move some functions to London might seem counter-cyclical. However, even after Brexit, London has and will continue to have a deep labour talent pool.”

They're cutting 6,000 jobs in all.

An ING spokeswoman said it was too early to make any decisions in response to Brexit, because it is unclear when and how the U.K. would eventually leave the bloc.

“In case of a ‘hard’ Brexit with far-reaching consequences, we will have to think about a logical next step,” she said. “But for now, London remains an important financial center with a large talent pool for financial specialists."

"If the effects of a possible 'hard' Brexit filter through to the talent pools in Europe, London may no longer remain an appropriate location for the FM [financial markets] trading function, and FM would consider its response to any such change at that time."

Telegraph

Wall Street Journal

I am on maternity leave so fortunately they are trying to accommodate me but I must return next month but I find my job is gone. Brexit has meant I have lost my job. As European sales manager for my company the role, and our whole department has moved to Copenhagen. Me and my European husband are tempted to leave Uk except we would lose about 20% value of our house if we try to sell and go. Feel trapped now in UK but with no proper job to go back to. Or I can take redundancy one weeks pay for every week I worked there. 7 weeks pay will get me nowhere after 9 months of £135 a week. Brexit effects are already very real...

Sorry to hear that Emsymum.

Thanks Gloria.

But they said they will rethink but did not say it is temporary. Relocation isnt cheap.

The crux of this is that these are non EU dependent FX trading jobs (unlike clearing).

Most job cuts are in EU not London strangely.

Well they're Dutch, the job losses are Amsterdam and Brussels.

They only have a small operation here - 650 people. ING took over Barings - '95 was it?

I didn't say it was temporary. I said they're moving here for the time being and if there's a hard Brexit they may have to rethink.

60 jobs is a rather small number. It would be interesting to know what sector those employees work in.

In any case, there are some city jobs which won't move out of London regardless of Brexit - thinking of sectors like commodities and precious metals, but they account for only a tiny number of jobs.

No one is saying the City will move lock stock and barrel, just that some sectors might have no choice and if so a lot of jobs in support functions could move too. Even a loss of 10% of city jobs and tax revenues would be pretty serious.

It may not even be that many - some sources say 50, some 60, the Standard says 40.

Fair enough Gloria.

There has been a recovery in manufacturing, which should bode well for our post-Brexit future, right?

Or perhaps not - "UK manufacturing recovery based on increase in low-skilled jobs, finds report" www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/21/uk-manufacturing-recovery-based-on-increase-in-low-skilled-jobs-finds-report

And in case the story is poo-pooed as typical Grauniad stuff, here is the actual report speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/10/20/british-manufacturing-has-entered-a-new-phase-of-decline-new-speri-brief/

"In the 5 years since 2011 the UK manufacturing sector has bucked historical trends and created new jobs.
However, output growth since 2011 has been negligible. Traditionally, the sector has been able to increase output despite job losses due to productivity gains.
While the decline of manufacturing appears superficially to have halted, this new analysis suggests the sector’s decline has in fact entered a new, dangerous phase. "

How could all these have happened while we were in the magic Single Market ?

Globalisation topsy.

Being out of the single market is not going to reverse it, but manufacturing may move elsewhere in the single market instead.

Emsymum do you have the opportunity to move to Copenhagen? If you do, I'd be seriously tempted to consider it - it's not cheap living over there, but it's a great place to live.

On a minor point - we've just had confirmation that due to the crashing pound SchoolBlazer (our school supplier) will be increasing prices on all their school uniform lines by 5% form the New Year. While their products are 'made in Britain', they apparently import all the raw materials (and pay in Euros or USD).