Actual economic effects cont...

[ManonLescaut]

Telegraph: Britain could be up to 70 billion worse off if it leaves the single market IFS warns

The respected economic think tank said that Britain could enjoy an extra 4 per cent in national income if it remains in the single market, equivalent to two years worth of growth.

The report claims that while leaving the EU will free the UK from an estimated £8 billion a year of budget contributions, the loss of trade from Brexit could hit tax receipts by a larger amount.

It found new trade deals would be unlikely to make up for lost EU trade, which accounts for 44 per cent of British exports and 39 per cent of service exports.

Telegraph: Treasury looks at quitting the single market

Officials say the talks have revealed a willingness among some top figures to scrap passporting despite early calls to stay in the single market from some quarters...

Mr Boleat cast doubt over the UK’s ability to secure a Norway-style deal to remain in the single market. He said accepting free movement of people and paying large sums to Brussels while accepting its rules would not be politically acceptable.

The BBA wants the UK to leave the single market but retain unimpeded access to EU markets.

How can your analysis that they are all wrong so far be correct when negotiations haven't even begun and brexit hasn't happened? The forecasts are made on the premise that hard brexit has occurred.

CEO Morgan Stanley..

“It really isn’t terribly complicated. If we are outside the EU and we don’t have what would be a stable and long-term commitment to access the single market then a lot of the things we do today in London, we’d have to do inside the EU 27."

But Beer you're just scaremongering.

This from the BBC Business Live site

"Chairman of the Lloyd's of London insurance market, John Nelson, says Britain's financial services sector will be severely damaged if Brexit is mishandled. "The ecosystem that we have, that is so massively valuable to the economy ... is at a cusp if Brexit is mishandled," he told a conference in London.

"It won't disappear, but it will have significant impact on the London insurance market."

Last month Mr Nelson said Lloyd's of London would have a plan ready to move some business to the EU by the time Article 50 is triggered, if the UK loses access to the single European market."

(I've corrected the spelling in one place.)

read this :
The 66 billion is from George Osbornes report pre-referendum - all part of project fear.
www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/10/11/the-lie-behind-claims-that-hard-brexit-will-cost-66-billion-a-year-in-lost-revenues/#601b04da312c

The treasury were asked to come up wig the figures they weren't politically influenced.

They are broadly in line with the estimates to gdp loss from many other think tanks too and the BOE.

Not project fear at all. Oh and using that when the leave campaign used fear all the time is hugely hypocritical.

Do you have any other figures? I seem to recall the economists for Britain worked it all out on he having our cake and eating it option. .

Fujitsu have just anounced they're cutting 1.800 UK jobs and moving. They warned about this before the referendum.

It's perfectly possible that Fujitsu are telling the truth, that it's nothing to do with Brexit and that they were intending to get rid of these jobs even before the referendum.

However, it does mean that up to 1800 jobs will need to be created for the ex Fujitsu employees. In addition to any jobs that will need to be created due to losses actually caused by Brexit.

In addition to any jobs that will need to be created due to losses actually caused by Brexit.

I believe the approved response is that there won't be any job losses caused by Brexit. Y'know, Project Fear and all that.

Small businesses are already fearing placing new orders due to weak pound - a friend has a small boutique that sell high quality shoes made in Italy and Spain and she's extremely concerned. She employs two British workers. Anecdotal , I know, but these are real people paying the price already.

If you want to see how wrong forecasts were/are, I randomly pick one BoE forecast dated 2010.

www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/ir10aug.pdf

Page 8 - GDP projection. Central case 2-4% quoted to justify printing lots of money. There were mostly wrong.

www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

And the report also expect budget deficit to close by 2015 - which of course again wrong.

These forecasts make certain assumptions and those assumptions later became invalid due to political, economics or other reasons. The known unknowns and unknown unknowns you know. As the premise of the forecast will not hold more than a few months at most, the outcome are nearly always wrong.

MS - If you read the entire article it says:
"In the days after we lose access, if that's what happens, the jobs that go, may be somewhat significant or they may not."

What does that mean exactly?

Shoe - Sorry to hear that. Doesn't look like the demand is price inelastic then.

Meanwhile, the Pound lost another 2% in the last two days. GBP/USD is currently at 1.21. In total, the Pound lost nearly 20% of its worth against the Dollar since Brexit referendum.

"These forecasts make certain assumptions and those assumptions later became invalid due to political, economics or other reasons. The known unknowns and unknown unknowns you know. As the premise of the forecast will not hold more than a few months at most, the outcome are nearly always wrong."

But we are not on unknown, unknowns here. Its fairly easy to look at the impact of hard brexit and going to WTO tariffs and arrangements on the UK because they are a KNOWN. We can also compare what it would be like on a CETA deal.

These aren't unknowns.

Also they are far more accurate than the have our cake and eat it deal.

The fact that these estimates may be wrong does not take away the risks demonstrated by them

"have our cake and eat it deal"

Oh yes, there are certainly some who thinks that (Boris?), but most are a far more contended bunch as long as we are out.

Unknown unknown - things like National Front winning in France over the next 15 years, Euro break up, UK find new oil etc. Impossible to know and impossible to build that into forecasts.

contended bunch should be contented bunch.

Of course. But you can look at the conditions thathat are known and analyse their impact on the economy.

Just because there are unknowns doesn't mean that this is inaccurate. The economy MIGHT be better because we've found oil, but the impact of thelse conditions are.much easier to predict than the unknowns.

Conspiracy theory alert: the £ is being manipulated by the banks in cahoots with Osborne and others to bring about a financial meltdown in an effort to thwart a brexit and thus save the city. The big recent drop was the first unsophisticated foray. (And if it is true, someone somewhere is coining it.) True or False do you reckon?

Why would you do that if you could just move your banking to the EU - especially if you are a foreign owned bank.

That leaves only British banks as a possibility and even most of them could move a lot of their operations out of the UK.

Much cheaper option than trying to cause a crisis.

As for working with George Osborne as some kind of leader? Really? Osborne is history.

London and the UK are important but there is plenty of money to be made elsewhere and from a different centre.

The big recent drop - would that be the "flash crash"? The one that happened when the US markets were closing and European markets were closed? I struggle to see why Asian banks would do anything to help the City of London and George Osborne.

Another possibility to factor in: hard Brexit giving Scotland the impetus to vote for Independence and leave FUKD

and take most of existing oil reserves and all of the new oil and gas fields with it

British shoppers told to expect price rises after steep fall in pound

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/12/british-shoppers-told-to-expect-price-rises-after-steep-fall-in-pound

As this thread shows, we have now fallen down the rabbit hole, and any good news will be used as "proof" that Brexit is working, and any bad news is the result of the spiteful Remainers deliberately tanking the economy.

Heads I win, tails you lose.

(Goes off to remind myself of the difference between "climate" and "weather" ...).

Not just this thread, Lurking, any thread about Brexit. The consistent inconsistent message is that absolutely nothing is going badly, and everything that is going badly is due to Remainers.

....and real-life descriptions of negative impacts of the vote are just anecdotal and irrelevant whereas real-life descriptions of the negative impacts of immigration are absolute proof that we were right to vote to leave

I'm waiting for the news of lists of nationalities being compiled.

No, not the Amber Rudderless ones about foreign workers in the UK.

The more subtle one of UK workers who are only UK citizens ...