Actual economic effects cont...

[ManonLescaut]

Telegraph: Britain could be up to 70 billion worse off if it leaves the single market IFS warns

The respected economic think tank said that Britain could enjoy an extra 4 per cent in national income if it remains in the single market, equivalent to two years worth of growth.

The report claims that while leaving the EU will free the UK from an estimated £8 billion a year of budget contributions, the loss of trade from Brexit could hit tax receipts by a larger amount.

It found new trade deals would be unlikely to make up for lost EU trade, which accounts for 44 per cent of British exports and 39 per cent of service exports.

Telegraph: Treasury looks at quitting the single market

Officials say the talks have revealed a willingness among some top figures to scrap passporting despite early calls to stay in the single market from some quarters...

Mr Boleat cast doubt over the UK’s ability to secure a Norway-style deal to remain in the single market. He said accepting free movement of people and paying large sums to Brussels while accepting its rules would not be politically acceptable.

The BBA wants the UK to leave the single market but retain unimpeded access to EU markets.

Brexit blamed for Marmite shortage

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37637954

I watched Amber Rudd pulling faces on PMQs, effectively trying to deny that she made comments which could be viewed as racist at the Tory Party Conference. I am no fan of Corbyn, but I think he did a pretty good job this afternoon. As for David Davis, Keir Starmer wiped the floor with him. Good old Ken Clarke making comments about how the slide in the £ would have been seen as a disaster in his day. (Although, he is still in Parliament, so it's still his day.)

This has been posted before but reposting again

Brexit will affect food prices due to the market's tight margins

Radio 4 Food Programme

Just listened to the Food Programme with mounting anger. What plan has the Government to feed us, or are they going to continue faffing around and saying everything is going to be fine?

I was particularly taken by the item about the abattoirs closing - Brussels got the blame yet again, but yet again, guess who the culprits were? Westminster.

Has Theresa May set up a Department for Food? I have not heard of one yet, but she might have done. Personally I doubt it, she seems more concerned with scoring points than actually getting on with the job, and talking to people.

To take the positive side, those of us with access to gardens and allotments could start growing more food, and it could potentially be healthier for us.

But I am still angry about the stupidity of having no plan for the future.

This is just the start. Other suppliers will start to pass on the price rises. Food is going to become very expensive and in short supply until trade deals are secured.

What would be really funny if it weren't so soul destroying is that lots of commentators on sites such as the Daily Mail think that there's no problem. If prices go up in Tesco's because of the cost of imports, they'll just shop at Lidl instead. [facepalm]

I'll swap Ben and Jerry's for Kelly's of Cornwall. We don't buy enough marmite to care. An expert on radio 4 this morning said that we can expect the grocery shop to go up by 5%, which myvfamily can cope with. I feel very sorry for those on tighter budgets.

I'll swap Ben and Jerry's for Kelly's of Cornwall

Unless you live in Cornwall, their prices will rise ...

In Perspective, a typical family spends 10-15% of the family income on food and 30% on mortgage/rent and 30%+ or taxes.

Why lurking husband?

Increased desire prices? How many tubs of ice cream fit in a refrigerated lorry? How much does it cost to run s truck from Cornwall to London and back? How much is the marginal difference in that trip due to diesel rises?

Desire = diesel

Why lurking husband?

Increased desire prices? How many tubs of ice cream fit in a refrigerated lorry?

Energy costs will increase as oil/gas is priced in dollars

How much does it cost to run s truck from Cornwall to London and back?

whatever %age diesel costs more ...

How much is the marginal difference in that trip due to diesel rises

As I said upthread, the proportion of costs that is transport - which will be different for different goods.

50% of the fuel price at current level (110p) is fuel duty which is fixed per litre. USD Crude price is half what it was 2 years ago.

A tax cut using money the government is using to manipulate the housing market (which incidentally makes housing more expensive) will offset the rise.

Let's say a lorry carries 20,000 tubs of ice cream and it costs £1000 for the lorry run from Cornwall to London. If rising diesel puts an extra £100 pounds on, then that is an extra half a penny per tub.

Unless said ice cream factory runs exclusively on self-generated power, its cost of production will also increase, as power costs increase

If rising diesel puts an extra £100 pounds on, then that is an extra half a penny per tub.

Although I admit to complete ignorance as to the costs of manufacture and transport of products, it seems unlikely that the only increase would be in the final leg of transportation.

Agree.
I looked exclusively at transport to London because this side conversation started with lurkinghusband suggesting that
Unless you live in Cornwall, their prices will rise ...

I'm sure lurking also knows there is more to it too, but this platform is designed for "chatting" not boiling the ocean!

Where do the ingredients come from in cornish icecream? The sugar? The vanilla? What about the plastic to make the tubs? Staff uniforms? Who makes the delivery vehicles? The parts to repair them? Where does the steel for the production plants come from? And that's just off the top of my head.

The sugar could come from UK-grown sugar beet, but with all the positive thinking in the world, we're not going to be self-sufficiently growing our own vanilla .

Doesn't vanilla come from just one place off the coast of Africa?

www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=MGA&view=5Y

Vanilla beans prices
2004 - $500/kg
2012 - $20/kg
2015 - $200/kg
2016 - $400/kg

Did Vanilla icecream became very cheap in 2012 ?

I don't have a background in the food industry, but my understanding is that the main cost of a food item comes from processing / packaging. Not the ingredients and not the transport.

The big supermarkets just push back on the suppliers and expect them to increase productivity, source lower quality ingredients, get workers to work for less or do longer hours etc, in order to keep prices level.
So the supermarkets won't pay the suppliers any extra, but the suppliers have higher costs due to the pound being worth less. This then has a wider impact on other countries, for example suppliers start to try to source cheaper labour in third world countries etc. They have to attempt to cut costs as they have to run their operations for the same money, but are being paid less for their goods.

I've just realised that I have no idea where vanilla comes from. Tesco's?

Vanilla originated in Mexico and now comes from Indonesia and Madagascar and a few other places like the Comoros Islands (I think that might be their principal export). So I wasn't quite right with the just one place, but right with the off the coast of Africa bit. Either way, it's tropical, so we would have to force it under glass here.