Actual economic effects cont...

[ManonLescaut]

Telegraph: Britain could be up to 70 billion worse off if it leaves the single market IFS warns

The respected economic think tank said that Britain could enjoy an extra 4 per cent in national income if it remains in the single market, equivalent to two years worth of growth.

The report claims that while leaving the EU will free the UK from an estimated £8 billion a year of budget contributions, the loss of trade from Brexit could hit tax receipts by a larger amount.

It found new trade deals would be unlikely to make up for lost EU trade, which accounts for 44 per cent of British exports and 39 per cent of service exports.

Telegraph: Treasury looks at quitting the single market

Officials say the talks have revealed a willingness among some top figures to scrap passporting despite early calls to stay in the single market from some quarters...

Mr Boleat cast doubt over the UK’s ability to secure a Norway-style deal to remain in the single market. He said accepting free movement of people and paying large sums to Brussels while accepting its rules would not be politically acceptable.

The BBA wants the UK to leave the single market but retain unimpeded access to EU markets.

This is a couple of days old:

FT: Commercial property market hit by Brexit vote

Looks like pm indices bouncing. Anyone still predicting recession? Funny how this thread has kind of died a death since the doom and gloom predictions have not been borne out.

Of course we have not 'Brexited' yet but most of the predictions were based on the hit to confidence and employment on the vote alone.

It is completely meaningless until we have some idea what our relationship with the single market will be.

That was not what was said on the previous thread. The uncertainty was meant to have pushed us into deep recession, projects were being cancelled, people were being layed off....

Only it has not quite turned out that way (looking at actual economic data).

Of course, anything may happen in the future. There are plenty of known unknowns and even unknown unknowns.

This is very much the "they didn't predict the weather for next Thursday so how can they possibly say climate change is real" school of argument,

We've just gravitated to different threads Larry...

Initially it looked as if the uncertainty alone could push us into recession, now we're pulling back from that based on the fact that we are still in the EU, still in the single market.

Markets live in hope that either A50 will never be invoked, or if is that either we get an EEA/EFTA deal or that negotiations fail and Brexit never happens.

The uncertainty will return once A50 is invoked...

Or doom and gloom was wrong...........

If you think this is d&g you wait til we leave the single market...

You might want to read the love letter from Japan...

Researchers are being excluded from European projects despite the fact that we haven't left yet. Other researchers are preparing to leave. It does take time to up sticks and move your family elsewhere, so it's too soon to give a true picture, but all this counts as being laid off in my book.

The problem is larry that any predictions were based on declaring article 50 and starting to leave straight away.

With Brexit having been kicked into the long grass, and a shed load of stimulus having been pumped into the UK markets without anything actually happening then the effect was always going to be positive.

A recession this year is now unlikely, but we are yet to see the effects of the crash in the value of the pound and its effect on consumer spending/confidence.

The value of the pound staying low is a much better economic indicator, and an indicator of medium and long term prospects than the data released today.

Small,

Your indicator du jour is always the one that tells you the story that you want to hear.

When we were ejected from the erm, was the value of gbp the best indicator of our economic prospects?

When the last services pmi came out (and it was perfectly clear that a50 was not being declared for quite some time), you seemed to have great belief in its validity as an indicator.

I think its an indicator of consumer confidence at the moment, the last one lowered so it indicated Brexit had an impact, it does go up and down, the drop in July was the worst on record, as you will recall. In fact the analysis of todays change suggest that my point about it being boosted by the intervention of the BOE is correct.

In July, we had the fall in the pound, the biggest drop in p and m indices, announcements from firms about stalling investment, consumer confidence and business optimism surveys that reported falling levels, to come up with an analysis that all the indicators were negative wasn't outlandish or biased.

Similarly larry, you seem to want to pretend that everything is going to be fine, when of course it will be, if we don't actually start negotiating to leave.

Remember when looking at this positive news, nothing has actually happened, apart from a massive round of stimulus, its no wonder the markets have rebounded. However look at the value of the pound its barely risen since the end of June. This will have effects on inflation, which will hit around Christmas, after which we should kick off art 50, then the real economic impacts will be seen.

Small,

If you have been in the markets over any period of time (and I suspect you have) you will know that any shock will impact confidence indices negatively in the short term.

Generally, in the absence of more bad news, the indicators bounce back quickly, which has happened this time.

For better or worse, the world is super correlated these days. I cannot see the uk in recession if the rest of the world is doing well.

We have a lot of work to do on Brexit but I remain optimistic. I don't think we will 'hard' Brexit. We will get some kind of bespoke deal which will allow both sides to save face. It won't be what the ardent Brexiters want, neither will it be 'Norway'.

I could be wrong, but so could you. It is a probability distribution and no one can know the out turn.

I think if indications coming from government are correct then we could be leaving the single market.

We won't know till Art 50 actually starts being negotiated, I fully expect low growth till the end of the year, depending on the impact of inflation.

Lower than the rest of Europe or just low?

Atm we're lower than the rest, but the brexit uncertainty will cause them effects too, marginally the same I think minute percentage points aren't worth quibbling over.

Invoking article 50 is now the big thing, this period now is a bit of a lull, and one that has only been brought through external stimulus.

www.ft.com/content/ad13cdf6-7428-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a

Google "ft two banks cancel recession forecast " to read if necessary.

Recession cancelled. Straight from The Experts as reported by The favourite news outlet.

Yup. Because as stated, nothing has happened yet, apart from the pound falling which will be beneficial in the short run, when costs start to rise it might not be.

All the predictions were based on art 50 being invoked.

Oh BTW, lovely to see that you brexiteers will use expert opinion when it suits you. Twits

Oh the other thing that has happened is that there has been a big dose of stimulus into the economy, it's not rallying on its own according because brexit is such a good idea.

Do you really honestly believe that the actual signing of art 50 will see much impact at this point? It's already been priced in to the market, it's likely to be signed first quarter 2017 and the markets don't wait! That turbulence you seen after the vote, the drop in value of the pound, ftse 100/250 temporary losses etc well that was it! That was the markets reacting, wait you don't think they will wait until the obvious happens do you? When do the markets ever work like that? For example if a large multinational company faces a scandal like apple not paying correct taxes or something similar, the losses to their share value are worked out and priced in after a few hours/days, that's why years later when it's settled in court and they get a massive fine the markets doesn't move much, it's already happened!

Name calling again Smallfox always your last retort in a losing argument?

1. I don't think I'm losing any argument

1. I think the "treat everyone the same" is to try and show that, I didn't say anyone was.

Try and get it right before you cast accusations.

Oh and it is rather stupid to start crowing about predictions not being accurate when nothing had happened at all. The value of the pound is the greatest indicator of future economic performance. It hadn't shifted. It's still far lower and the consumer hadn't felt the impact yet.

Markets don't wait, but the shifts in the ftse have been to value companies that make high revenues in other currencies highly valued, not mainly British based which are still valid lower than they were prior to June

Implications for future fdi are low, and the current rise in indices is only back to just above where it was before the vote.

The markets have also responded to.massive stimulus, short term.

The current good news is short term toof. We need to see what happens with the negotiations because as said, nothing has happened.

Your the one that ended your last post by calling Brexiters 'Twits' Small.

Well it is rather foolish to be crowing about predictions not coming true when they are based on different models of access outside the EU.

If we have a EEA style agreement it was modeled that not much would change.

I'd also say that without the massive stimulus provided by the BOE we would be in a much larger economic mess at the minute, which kind of shows that the BOE's predictions, and their actions to prevent the mess were correct.

The discussion on here seems to be "ha, ha you were wrong" without any analysis of the situation that we are in.

If all was rosy, the pound would be higher. We'll see the impact on inflation in this later in the year/early next year. Combine lower consumer spending power, higher business operating costs with art 50 being declared and I think that things will start to look a bit different.