Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Oh and the Tory manifesto pledged to safeguard the UK's interests in the single market.

Simon Cox @SimonFRCox

If Cons manifesto promises to "honour EURef" AND "safeguard UK in SM" can't both be met, what's House o'Lords to do?

The general opinion on twitter seems to be that the Canadian plan is a 'dead dog' before it starts, so it might all be a mute point.

Yes, this Canadian-style plan sounds pretty improbable to me too.

If this is what the government has in mind our best hope must be that the plan fails to materialise before we do anything silly like invoking article 50. We need time. On the positive side, so far May has seemed to be cool headed about Brexit but pressure is bound to grow for her to do something.

Interestingly, I also think our best bet of getting a good deal with other EU countries could well be to wait it out. If they become sufficiently unhappy with the status quo they might just be prepared to offer us a decent deal.

discretionary control over immigration policy; - Too many immigrants -

tick
discretionary control over lawmaking; regain sovereignity - tick
no compulsory contributions to the EU budget - £350 million which could be spent on the NHS - tick

Yes, that seems a pretty reasonably summary which many of the Leave voters thought they were voting for.

Steve Peers ‏@StevePeers
^1 If today's @Peston story is correct, UK govt wants a 'Canada+' FTA with the EU after Brexit. Some initial legal thoughts follow.

2 @Peston story says UK govt thinks voting rule on EU side is crucial, because little chance of deal UK wants if unanimous voting on EU side

3 Issue: does Art 50 apply to the post-Brexit deal? If yes, then QMV should apply. If not, Art 207 TFEU (common commercial policy) applies

4 Art 207 means a) Commission is sole negotiator; b) voting by QMV, but with exceptions: foreign direct investment, some aspects of services

5 If UK/EU FTA includes transport services (see Art 207.5), or issues outside scope of Art 207, then it will also need national ratification

6 In practice EU FTAs have been subject to unan voting & national ratification, though they are usually provisionally applied before latter.

7 The exact scope of Art 207 will soon be decided by the CJEU, in a case involving the EU/Singapore FTA:
curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=170868&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=384955

8 Hearing of CJEU Full Court on Sep 12/13. Ironically UK usually argues for unanimous voting re EU FTAs :) Will it now change its position?

9 Commission points out Singapore FTA is similar to Canada FTA (p4):
ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2016/EN/1-2016-444-EN-F1-1.PDF
So pending case v relevant to UK/EU Canada+ FTA

10 So the issue of whether unanimous voting needed for UK/EU FTA is largely legal, not political. I'd expect CJEU ruling by Christmas.

11 UK/EU FTA might raise some different legal Qs from EU/Canada FTA, ie if it doesn't have investment rules, or has diff services rules.

12 But ultimately CJEU ruling very likely to be relevant to UK/EU FTA. It might be wise to wait for the ruling before Art 50 triggered [end]

Ok so what does this actually mean in none legal / EU expert language?!

Well this is the background:
Option a - QMV or Qualified Majority Voting.
A qualified majority needs 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU population.
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/qualified-majority/

Option b - article 207 and unanimity
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/unanimity/
What Unanimity applies to.
eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:12008E207:en:HTML
article 207 in full.

My understanding here is that, first of all, it raises the question of whether we would need agreement of all 27 countries or whether we would just deal with the commission acting on behalf of the EU as a whole.

It sounds like the UK want a deal which relies on dealing with the EU commission only (and therefore QMW) as its much easier to do.

However if we were to talk about services this could be more of an issue as it falls outside the current framework of a207 and thus would need the involvement of national states - and therefore a unanimous decision. Meaning a deal regarding the banking sector and our services which make up most of our exports would be virtually unworkable.

There is also a test case which might have some big implications for Brexit.

In essence, once again, it sounds like the Department of Hot Air Brexit don't really understand how the EU works and they are desperately trying to pull rabbits out of hats here somehow.

I also get the sense that the sense that even though there is this legal case about the Singapore FTA we could end up in a situation where the UK could end up embroiled in a legal dispute with the EU on how we have to proceed. Thus there is another potential obstacle to Brexit here in the sense that we need to establish clearly what post Brexit negotiations will take the form of prior to invoking a50 if we have any brain cells at all.

But please correct me if my understanding of this is not correct as its complex but could be extremely important.

europeanlawblog.eu/?p=2035

If that doesn't have you going cross eyed and going WTF, then there is this EU law blog, which talks about the scope of a207 and how services have protected status and there is a bit of a turf war between the European Council and European Commission.

(No I don't really understand either. Except its probably 'A Bad Thing That Is Not Good News For The UK')

Who wants some UKIP sleaze to brighten your day instead?

order-order.com/2016/08/16/ukip-leadership-love-rats-viagra-shocker/
MEP Bill Etheridge’s partner Lorraine Chew last night called him a “dirty disgusting cheat” when she found this half-empty packet of little blue pills

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78190/majority-voters-believe-owen-smith-should-be
A new poll says that the majority of voters (not Labour members) think Owen Smith should be leader rather than Corbyn.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/15/brexit-canada-trade-deal-eu-model-next-steps?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1471251967

The Canadian FTA.
Its into its 7th year of negotiations and is still ongoing. (Remember Hammond said that Brexit would take 6 years to agree)

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/boris-johnson-vows-to-knuckle-down-after-bitter-whitehall-feud-w/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
nutty and obsessive Liam Fox Johnson v Fox

The other issue the government might want to bear in mind just a little bit is that CJEU decisions as I understand it are not binding on future decisions of the court- they don't have the same precedent rule as the UK courts do, or at least not to the same extent.

So it would be perfectly realistic to decide that the Singapore fta can be agreed by QMV, but Brexit cannot. We can't rely on that decision being in our favour whatever the outcome of Singapore.

The depressing thing about those Brexit pillars is that from what I've read very few brexiteers voted for all of them. They might want sovereignty and no payment but keep immigration, or reduce immigration but don't care about sovereignty. I don't see why 75% of voters are being ignored in favour of the hard Brexit fanatics!?

It sounds like the UK want a deal which relies on dealing with the EU commission only (and therefore QMW) as its much easier to do.

This is the unelected bureaucrats that we have just said we don't want making our laws? But now that its convenient, we will forget about that, shall we? You couldn't make it up.

I have more chance of understanding the rules of the Omnium than understanding most of that. I think I will stick with the generally accepted idea that we are indeed FUKD, although I do agree with Peregrina that the 'wishlist' sounds an awful lot like what a lot of Brexiters thought they were voting for, the language has just been cleaned up a bit.

Yes, but I would agree that most Brexiteers didn't want all three of those things and also wanted their cake to eat by having access to the single market and genuinely believed this was possible.

If it becomes apparent that a compromise has to come somewhere, then many would change their point of view. Not all, but then those are the people who want the moon on a stick and can't be satisfied anyway.

The Omnium rules are easy! I have more difficulty spelling ominium.

I can bore you senseless with Omnium rules and facts: ds was a youth track cyclist (he only gave up this year to concentrate on his rugby) still have the expensive track bike in the garage As well as the even more expensive road bike

He warned up beside Sir Chris Hoy at the first event at the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome in 2012 his first ever Omnium. Saw Callum Skinner break his collarbone after playing silly buggers with JP (the other up and coming Scottish sprinter at the time) doing a track stand on the high banking.

The Devil was ds' favourite event - but he used to do it the hard way, coming from the back every time.

Met Sir Chris Hoy again a year later, when ds and a girl from another local cycling club were interviewed on TV with him helping to promote "One Year to Go" for the Commonwealth Games.

I seem to have spent the last week and a half explaining the rules of various events (and in some cases making them up) to the kids. sailing has been a particular delight. I will miss the Olympics, it's totally taken over my days and most of my nights!

Wondering now if TM might just see an avenue in looking to the courts to restrain the wilder brexit ambitions?

You mean, your time isn't taken up with working out a Brexit plan?!

Shame on you!

Gisela Stewart, big Leave campaigner, asking for something specific from the referendum result

pretty I have a plan, but it largely involves me winning the euromillions and building a large bunker.

To be fair, at no point have I claimed it was a good or realistic plan, so I'm nailed on to be leading a government department soon, surely?

"It is like the arsonist turning round and saying they are surprised that a fire took hold"

Quite.

My plan possibly just as unrealistic is for Scotland to gain its independence and leave FUKD to it .

We can be a good neighbour though and lead by example, to show that it is possible to have a successful anti-austerity, non-Tory government and demonstrate the contrast with the post-Brexit FUKD.

We won't veto FUKD's re-entry

The German Vice Chancellor (deputy PM) gives Neo Nazis the finger after they say he is a traitor and his father loved the country (he was a Nazi).

Why can't we have politicians who just do this?

medium.com/@jeegarkakkad/the-uk-wont-opt-for-ceta-because-that-model-simply-does-not-exist-78c165814229#.2y6epzwuq
The 'Peston Plan' debunked.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/17/isis-should-get-round-the-table-with-uk-middle-east-says-owen-smith-labour?CMP=twt_gu
Owen Smith does his best 'unelectable' comment yet, by saying we should get round the table in talks with ISIS. This is a good lesson in how to appear stupid and unaware of security issues.
Who fancies doing security for that?

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/17/brexit-trade-deals-gruelling-challenge-taking-back-control?CMP=twt_gu
Guardian piece on the realities of trade deals the UK faces

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/leave-eu-get-burnt-by-team-gb-olympian-who-tells-them-to-stop-using-his-image-for-their-campaign/
Callum Skinner tells Leave.Eu not to use his image in their campaign about Britain being great.

This fits nicely with a point I was going to make about our success at the Olympics. Athletes have been funded through the lottery but they are backed up hugely in this country by sports science. Given we are facing a huge crisis over science funding which will have knock on effects onto all department there is a question mark over the future of 'Being Great Britain' in a sporting capacity looming here. Will our best people be poached to go over seas?

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+9)
LAB: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori)

Daily Fail link but I think its credible - and ironic:
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3738360/Expats-lose-voting-rights-s-complex-Government-shelves-plans-one-million-Britons-say-civil-servants-insist-difficult-implement.html
Expats who have lived abroad for more than 15 years won't get right to vote, despite plan by Cameron to implement it. Why? Because its 'too complex'.

Oh. Too complicated you say... Oh. Wait.
facepalm

Interesting article from Joseph Stiglitz in the FT today. (It is subscription but not paywall). it suggests that the EU should rethink and potentially abandon the euro to focus on the European project...

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbbd151c-62f4-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227.html#axzz4Ha6gdykg

I saw the Callum Skinner tweet in the Guardian today. I liked the addition of the european flag at the bottom.

I'm sorry if this has been posted already. Its an opinion piece on the deals TM will need to do from the Centre for European Reform:

www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/six-brexit-deals-theresa-may-must-strike

'Theresa May will reject the “Norwegian model,” although it would offer access to the single market, since the price—payments into the EU budget and free movement of labour—would be unacceptable. She will go for a free trade agreement, along the lines of the recent EU-Canada deal.'

He sounds very confident about that. This article is from late July. Does he/did he know something that we all didn't?

I still can't decide if she will in fact go for a hard Brexit or a soft one. I kind of can't see her risking London's passporting... or IS she that reckless/keen to appease hard Leavers?

If we lose the City we are truly fucked.

I just don't know. On the one hand there are some hard-Brexit noises coming out now. On the other, there are promises of a UK-wide approach. Given the issues with Scotland and NI I can't see how these two positions are compatible.

No. The whole thing is just a series of incompatible and contradictory needs, isn't it?