Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Do you think that survey's accurate, Peregrina?
How many surveys recently have been wholly accurate? As a snapshot, it's a good as we've got. Since the turnout was much greater than the 2015 election who knows about those extra voters?

I could see it being reasonably accurate, because I think the media have been desperate to talk down Labour, and this influences people. The media have been quietly ignoring the inconvenience that it was the Tory vote which let Cameron down.

I don't think we're close to hard or soft or slightly squidgy Brexit yet (or Brexit at all for that matter). The press and MPs are still promising unicorns and it will be for David Davis and Liam Fox to stand up and say what they d delivered.

Whatever happens there will be s number of angry people although I think it will get yo a point where they realise there will be fewer angry people with s soft Brexit rather than a hard one, if that can actually be delivered.

James Delingpole was writing in the Spectator that the rise of the right was because of political correctness. If we could go back to the good old days when racism and misogyny were just dandy, everything would be better and we'd have our country back...

I don't think we're close to hard or soft or slightly squidgy Brexit yet (or Brexit at all for that matter). The press and MPs are still promising unicorns and it will be for David Davis and Liam Fox to stand up and say what they d delivered.

Whatever happens there will be s number of angry people although I think it will get yo a point where they realise there will be fewer angry people with s soft Brexit rather than a hard one, if that can actually be delivered.

James Delingpole was writing in the Spectator that the rise of the right was because of political correctness. If we could go back to the good old days when racism and misogyny were just dandy, everything would be better and we'd have our country back...

If we could go back to the good old days when racism and misogyny were just dandy, everything would be better and we'd have our country back...

Gosh yes, it's all the fault of those uppity blacks, and women who don't know their place.

Sorry about the double posts - dodgy wifi.

Also of course the left behind disaffected victims of austerity got far more neatly into the viewpoint of much of the mainstream media. If the outcome of the referendum is more money for deprived areas, very few people are going to argue against it so the labour voted out trope fits within a wider anti austerity story.

It doesn't work nearly so well if the actual out vote is a whole load of 'I'm alright jacks' from the Home Counties looking to make a quick buck which is just as true in my experience.

Couple of points from the post match analysis last night. I didn't watch as the previews gave the tone very much as you all describe and I cannot cope with listening to Mandelson and Clark in unbalanced large doses.

The Labour share of the UK vote is below 35% so even if 65% of that 35% voted Remain that would only contribute 24% of the total vote. Break down by constituency is irrelevant.

I think it is reasonable to assume the 15% UKIP and the 8% increase in turnout all voted Leave. This gave the Leave a 23% standing start which the Remain campaign did not address because it adopted the strategy of protecting the status quo which they had already rejected.

On Scotland, I have read some analysis (can't remember where) surmising 38% Leave implies about 30% of the SNP voted Leave. This seems in line with Conservative and Labour Remain at about 75% in line with central London. The piece I read went as far as to say you could predict the overall result from this alone. A solid Remain for Scotland ought to have been 75-80%.

Interesting differences on sentiment vs actions emerging.

Investors pessimistic but investing leading to market increases
PMI down but actual production up
Consumer confidence down but actual purchasing up

All per bbc business live this morning.

Trade deficit widening so probably just as well the pound is falling to stem imports?

Are there really hordes of angry Leavers ready to march on Westminsters if they do not get a hard Brexit NOW? Or are they just a small minority/ a figment of the Daily Express' imagination?

I think it would depend on how much they were wound up. Also whether it was a protest vote or a vote about a particular issue.

The disenfranchrised protesters with no hard and fast reason will see it as the elite doing the same old. If I'm honest I don't think most are motivated enough to do much and will just grumble about it on social media rather than actually DO anything.

The racist element are perhaps the most likely to get angry if we don't stop immigration. But I don't think that will manifest as marches on parliament. Its most likely to be hate crime. That said, I think next years figures will be a big improvement on this, as both Brits and EU economic migrants leave as the economy tanks and business decides to move to the continent.

The economically left behind are regionalised and in pockets around the country. To be blunt about it, I doubt masses of people from Sunderland or South Wales will be able to afford a trip to protest in Westminster if things get even worse. You are more likely to get localised civil unrest and protests (more akin to the miner's strikes). Especially since Corbyn is Rent-a-Protester.

It also depends on the timing of events. Riots and protests etc, are less popular in the depths of a hard winter than a warm dry summer for example. It depends on what the hold up(s) are and how competent the government look (ha!). And of course how much and how long the right wing press are prepared to give a Conservative government.

Today's Brexit stuff is thin on the ground:
www.theguardian.com/society/2016/aug/08/13bn-troubled-families-scheme-has-had-no-discernible-impact
An unpublished report on a scheme to tackle entrenched social problems is damning.

www.theguardian.com/money/2016/aug/09/england-one-in-three-families-one-months-pay-losing-homes-shelter-study?CMP=twt_gu
One in three familes are one month's pay from losing their homes.
A worrying stat, going into a recession.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/09/chinas-relationship-with-uk-at-risk-over-hinkley-point-delay-war/
China's new 'special relationship' with the UK at risk over Hinkley says ambassador. I think the Hinkley thing, does raise a few question marks over May's diplomatic skills tbh. She could have handled this far better, even if she did want to back off the deal for a while.

The Institute for Government, have a chart on the UK's Brexit Options.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Brexit%20Options%20A3%20August%20update_0.pdf

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/bbc-host-brands-john-mcdonnell-8592175
You have to scroll down to the bit about it, but William Hague has talked about what next for Labour saying:
The interview came as former Tory leader William Hague suggested anti-Corbyn Labour MPs could form a new party - but only "if it has something distinctive to stand for and if large numbers of people might be persuaded to agree with it".

Suggesting the name Independent Labour, he said such a party would "steal good Tory ideas like the Northern Powerhouse and work out better ways of doing them."

He added: "A party that stood for such things could at least claim to be relevant, up-to-date and unifying, and would have a social democratic emphasis on redressing inequality.

"The old workers have gone, along with the South Yorkshire of my youth. The left needs to stand for the new workers if it is to compete as it did then."

I find it curious that he is saying this. I don't think its because he is about 'destroying Labour' FWIW. I also note that he is commenting about the abandonment of the Northern Power House idea - I think there may be Tory descent in the ranks although Hague is no longer an MP and also a sense of the new Conservative Government, already writing off the north in that. Perhaps I am reading too much into it, but I do find it worthy enough to note.

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/foreign-aid-minister-employs-comms-director-of-vote-leave-who-earlier-opposed-departments-work/
Priti Patel employs communication director of Vote Leave who previously, like her, didn't like the department.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/02/new-uk-commissioner-julian-king-to-head-up-eus-security-brief
Registering the 3million EU nationals currently in the UK with leave to remain would take 140 years at the current rate.

I think it is reasonable to assume the 15% UKIP and the 8% increase in turnout all voted Leave. This gave the Leave a 23% standing start which the Remain campaign did not address because it adopted the strategy of protecting the status quo which they had already rejected.

Lord Ashcroft polled 20,058adultsin Jan 2014
This was widely available.
It divided the population into 5 groups.

Committed Hostility (ANTI EU) - 19%
Discontented Sceptics - 27%
RelaxedStatusQuo - 26%

Global Progressives (PRO EU)- 12%
Disengaged - 15%

The week before the referendum that Committed Hostile I think was stated as higher than that at 24% by Ashcroft if memory serves me.

Remain's vote chasing tactic was all about the Discontented Sceptics - 27% and ensuring that the Relaxed Status Quo - 26% went out to vote by scaring them to motivate them. They IGNORED the Disengaged - 15%.

Leave didn't. That is where Remain's mistake was.

Gunning for Corbyn

Imagine what Labour could have achieved if they had united and provided the opposition we so desperately need.

Thinking ahead to what unplanned consequences there might be (and I know this is conjecture). Perhaps EU immigration will naturally decrease over the next couple of years anyway? Maybe due to a recession meaning fewer jobs; and EU people feeling less welcome. (I already know of one Polish family returning to Poland.)
Would this then expose to Leave voters that we still get a lot of immigration from outside the EU? There is no obvious way to 'vote against' that. (And the revolt against it is ugly and more apparently racist.)
However some may realise that Brexit is not the cure-all they'd believed, and be less set on it.

The Gunning for Corbyn seems a good analysis to me. I haven't got the patience to wade through the 2000 + comments though. It does make me angry that the PLP haven't got the guts to go after the Tories - there is an open goal there just waiting for them. Or there was.

I don't know about Momentum - I hear that they are an entryist group like the old Militant, but how much of that is the right wing media spin? 20/30 years ago DH and I, with a good number of friends, were very active on Peace Marches. At the time the media did a number of things:
a) made us out to be a bunch of Commies, whereas nothing could be further from the truth in our case. The local group was started by some Quakers and a good many of us were of like mind, even those not Church members.
b) the numbers attending rallies was always vastly underreported.
c) the Socialist workers were everywhere with their banners, but most of us didn't have a great deal of time for them.

So I do wonder of Momentum, or whatever it's now called, is a movement of people who genuinely want change. if this is younger people then I find that encouraging.

Perhaps EU immigration will naturally decrease over the next couple of years anyway? Maybe due to a recession meaning fewer jobs; and EU people feeling less welcome.

Quite likely. Also, the idea of an 'emergency brake' on EU immigration has been raised, and (in the longer term) this may well change immigration levels if it consists of a brake on freedom of movement to work.

Would this then expose to Leave voters that we still get a lot of immigration from outside the EU?

Probably. Examples have been cited of people voting Leave to get rid of 'the Muslims'.

Although, some Leave voters actively want more non-EU migration, from things I've read. I suspect though they mean white people from e.g. Canada, rather than more brown people from say India.

I suspect though they mean white people from e.g. Canada, rather than more brown people from say India.

I agree, and I think that's what they are really saying when they go on about a points system like Australia. In the mistaken belief that people from the Indian Sub continent are not very well educated so wouldn't qualify. Yet, don't they ever stop to consider why the IT industry has increasingly been outsourced to India?

Oh perhaps for a few Indian doctors and nurses - yes, we can take those away from a much greater need for their skills in their own country. That would be OK.

I have just had a reply from my MP. Although she voted Remain herself,

I've still not heard from mine - I'm now wondering if we have the same MP!

My MP is Nicola Blackwood. I do wonder if she is sending out a standard letter.

I agree about the quality of this thread. Fantastic reasoned debate. And no slanging or slagging!

I totally agree Peregrina, about the morality of taking doctors and nurses from other countries who've trained them and need them.
I hated listening to NF talking in interviews about the Australian points system: 'so we can just get the type of highly-qualified workers we really need'. It's just another example of the 'I'm alright Jack - I don't care about other countries /people /refugees so long as we're OK.' Not the attitude we need if we are to survive globally. (Shades of Trump.)

Ah, not the same one. The wait (no doubt futile) goes on.

Unicorns - political correctness doesn't seem to have limited James Delingpole's ability to be a sexist, objectionable arsehole on a regular basis!

Thinking forward again: I reckon the Tories will want to do whatever it takes to win the next election. (They're good at focussing on that.) It will be difficult for them, though, to deliver a Brexit that makes everyone happy. There may be a lot of dissent by then, and they will get the blame.
If JC is still the leader of a single Opposition party at that time, disillusioned voters may vote for him to get rid of the Tories. (I know he has failed too, but people have short memories, and the power of a protest vote can be surprisingly strong, as we've seen.)
So JC in power? Perhaps this is his long term strategy. Stranger things have happened.

Interesting that the Ashcroft analysis agrees that ignoring the disaffected was the major mistake of the Remain campaign.

In the context of who is likely to march on Parliament and whether there will be hordes of disgruntled Northern Brexiteers I think this article from yesterday might be a straw in the wind.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-hits-london-and-south-east-economies-hardest-a7178681.html

It looks like the short term pain of Brexit may be disproportionately felt in the South East. To the extent that this starts to rebalance the North / South divide this may lead to less disgruntlement. However if the government is seen to mitigate this by pouring yet more money into the South eg infrastructure (HS2, Heathrow expansion), bribes for fracking, more support for inflated house prices this could lead to unrest.

I lived in London when the poll tax was in place. In common with many Londoners my rate was zero. However there were plenty of protesters.

The Labour party have just elected 6 left leaning people to the NEC.

Kevin Schofield ‏@PolhomeEditor
New Labour NEC member Rhea Wolfson says there needs to be "a conversation" about mandatory reselection of MPs. Fancy that ...

There may be rather a lot of Labour MPs that are deselected at the next election in favour of Corbynist candidates, including popular MPs I'm sure.

This begs huge questions of whether the public will share the same enthusiasm for them.

Our constituency has been previously Labour, its currently Conservative but has consistent Liberal Democrat support on the council rather than Labour representation.

I can tell you, that there is not a cat in hells chance that a Corbynist candidate will get in here if the NEC imposed one. The local CLP has voted Smith for the leadership which says enough. The area would be adverse to Labour led by Corbyn, but if there was a good centre candidate they might do well if the Tories are falling out of favour. Putting in a Corbynist candidate would be suicide and would play directly to the Lib Dems. There is talk of defection locally as it is.

Andy Burnham has been nominated as the Labour candidate for Greater Manchester's first MP. Personally I think this is great (though I'm not in the area - just - so can't vote). I have family who dealt with him personally and think he's decent.

However this means he will have to step down as the shadow home secretary soon enough as he'll win by a landslide I'm sure. Its not popular with everyone though.

Kevin Schofield ‏@PolhomeEditor
Labour MP: "Burnham got on the first lifeboat, whilst encouraging everyone else to stay on the Titanic with Corbyn."

And in other news Paul Mason is being linked to Andy Burnham's seat should he be elected as mayor.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/08/andy-burnham-who-will-be-labours-candidate-leigh

It's not entirely pertinent to this thread, but I notice that Virgin East Coast rail staff have voted to go on strike. Add this to the strike on Southern, why oh why are the Tories being allowed to get away with this? But the accepted wisdom seems to be Labour = strikes, Labour = can't trust them on the Economy. Why?