Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

According to the other thread he was suggesting to the son of said SF councillor that he might like to consult with his father before pontificating about the past - seems entirely reasonable to me. In much the same vein I am more than tempted to suggest that Tony Benn who have more than a little to say to Hilary if he were still around. It is not much of an endorsement that the Kinnock dynasty are showing such a united front against JC imho. I have to agree. I believe Jeremy. This is a dirty tricks campaign par excellence.

I think a drop in GDP would be worth it if it means school shoes for all at the expense of a few pairs of leopard print kitten heels.

I think a lot of people would agree with that, I'm just not sure the option is on the table

less money all around rarely means fewer inequalities, and I suspect a drop in GDP would make the better-off cling even more strongly onto their privileges

The Telegraph take on the PMI is very amusing . Just another case of them pandering to their readership to try to get the BoE to commit to QE.

The £ is UP on yesterday as are the markets. The PMI is an historic survey and so based on pre Brexit uncertainty rather than the position going forward. Also it focuses on manufacturing which rightly or wrongly is a small part of the UK economy.

I'm the last to agree with JC's policies but I admire his grace under pressure.

It's more like kicking back than just wanting to kick the bankers and the Tories for shits a giggles.

Can we afford the next banking crisis?

Because apparently we can no longer afford for our disabled citizens to live comfortable lives after the last one.

howabout I'm a little confused now as the stuff I read said that the numbers were for July, included confidence in the services sector, and that the pound was down.

but - not my area of expertise, I only know what I read...

I want to see politicians behave like grown-ups and give the country exactly what it voted for, that it is leave the EU.

Yes to behaving like grown-ups. But the problem with leaving the EU is that the Leave camp doesn't know what that means. BoJo and Daniel Hannon clearly think EEA and Free movement; Davis, Leasdom, WTA. Until that is resolved, there can't be any progress.

But the problem with leaving the EU is that the Leave camp doesn't know what that means.

Sure, so in that case we need a leader with guts to define it for them and the definition should, as a priority, be one which minimises the disruption and damage to the economy. It shouldn't be one that above all else must appease anti-immigrants. We voted on the EU. If they want measures against immigrants they are welcome to set up a political party to this end. I wonder what they might call it.

I think a 10% drop in GDP woluldn't be a drop in living standards, it would punch a hole in funding for public services.
I doubt we'd make that up with some fantasy of revitalised manufacturing, at some unspecified time in the future, invested in by as yet unknown organisations.
A 10% cut in GDP would see the NHS gone in any recognisable form and schools cut to ribbons and benefits of all kinds pared back to a minimum.
I know bankers are as much of a target of scorn as 'the elites' (I'll bet different people put quite surprising figures and groups in that capacious and fuzzy hold-all term) but I do rather worry about what will happen to anyone who needs public services if we choose a reduction in immigration at the expense of a significant chunk of the economy.

Those long, dark years of Thatcherism didn't see inequality ameliorated with 'hand-outs'. They saw a violent and aggressive use of the police. And the selection of a succession of societal scapegoats against whom the rage and despair bubbling under the surface was directed.
I really worry about the economy nose-diving whilst a right-wing (to the right of Cameron) is in power. Especially when that right-wing government looks as though it won't be dislodged for some time.
My personal feeling is that we will be called upon to choose between the economy (let's attack the bankers! Let's attack the use!) and immigration (protect our jobs!) - and it will be a choice that is against the interests of most of us - not just the most vulnerable.

I don't trust a right-wing government to prioritise a much-reduced tax yield towards public services and the disabled. I don't imagine they'd raise corporation and individual taxation or safeguard workers's rights.
Why should they?

Thatcher did well enough to get elected again and again with tax cuts and no Opposition, against a background of extreme homelessness, high unemployment and (effectively) forced labour (with no protection) for the young.
I do think we'd be fools to allow a (well-justified) desire for wealth-distribution, infrastrucure investment and development, and diversification of the economy (and the geography of that economy) to be mobilised into an either/or choice of 'bankers/elites' versus immigration control.

I also think we need to start asking what, exactly, people mean when they talk about 'elites'. It's so dodgy - and I think we need to be very wary when our basest emotions (hatred, fear) are being called upon to be unleashed on quite amorphous groups.

I think the the whole discourse of Brexit has made me very wary of generalities, emotionality, and the rhetoric of scapegoating. It's made me examine my own responses to these strategies.
I'm a veteran of various 'Stop the City' and Class War events but I am now really pulling myself up short to think about what sort of 'dog whistles' I respond to and to really check the fine print (or absence thereof) of various rhetorical calls.

Chalalala, I agree with you:
^it's not just education though, it's the way our perception of the world is structured by the media that surrounds us. It's so easy to live in an echo chamber, where you only read the newspapers that present your viewpoint, follow people on Twitter who agree with you, etc.
Google/Facebook certainly know all about my political leanings and only suggest ads and articles that broadly support my views.
It's even worse in the US because they don't have politically neutral tv/radio like the BBC, instead you can just choose to listen to right-wing radio hosts and Fox News. You would never, ever be exposed to any contradictory viewpoints. Same is true on the other side of the political spectrum.
I don't know how you fight that, but I suspect that school education as we know it is necessary, but not sufficient.^

Yes, plus that education must provide these as a required foundation:
-respect for human rights and equality
-the ability to read
-the ability to discern bias and prejudice in whatever you read
-practice at listening to others' views, and debating without anger and threat
-understanding of the importance of kindness and compassion

You can do all these skills with primary school children, given the time and endorsement by the curriculum authorities. Then they need to be continued in secondary school, and validated by the media and government in general life. Then perhaps we wouldn't have a society with racism, misogyny, greed and selfishness.

Am I living in cloud cuckoo land?!

theintercept.com/2016/07/21/donald-trumps-convention-speech-rings-terrifying-historical-alarm-bells/

The Trump technique - as described by Plato's Republic. Also see 'Brexit', Turkey.

With respect to this, America is so divided and there is already trouble on the streets related to race. There is a possibility that a Trump victory would spark riots. If this happened, then Trump could get executive Presidential powers to control the situation. We have seen this before. Its alarmingly happening in Turkey at the moment. Have you seen Trump's comments about Erdogan?

HOWEVER, Louise Mensch (yes really) is carrying an story which I've not seen elsewhere.

There is a third party in American politics called the Libertarian Party. The Republican Party, is so split with parts hating it so much that some states may decide to endorse the Libertarian Party instead. Notably, Utah. Clinton is also hated that some Democrat voters may also see him as an alternative. The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson needs to poll at 15% to get included in TV debates. If he does, then he starts to become a serious candidate. He could damage the chances of both Clinton and Trump, but Utah is of particular note. If Johnson stops Trump from winning the state, then it could effectively block him from the White House.
reason.com/blog/2016/07/22/utah-delegates-may-vote-for-gary-johnson
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-us-election-johnson-1.3683860?cmp=rss
That's a twist I'd really not seen, and maybe suggests weird things will happen elsewhere too. And again, the third party getting media coverage seems to be a key part of democracy - or should I say - where it is failing.

Faisal Islam's description of economics for the confused:
Faisal Islam Verified account @faisalislam

Ok very simply, for confused folk ....

1. Sharp fall of PMI into of leading indicator of GDP (dark blue line)
2. Below 50 on the PMIs is widely defined as recession territory but not always... This was 47.7 - was way below
3. The dark blue line is the PMI, a survey of the intentions of purchasing managers - it is a good indicator of the light blue boxes -GDP
4. The PMI picked up the 2008 recession very early, picked up flattening of growth in 2012 too. BOE rate setters respond to it as well
5. PMI slump driven by record falls in indices for new orders, output &service business expectations from July 12-21
6. PMI's chief economist says that participants "most commonly attributed" the slump to Brexit -
7. Reporting PMIs is not "talking the country down" - accurately reflecting important indicator of key private economic decision makers...
8. very odd to get personal abuse for reporting PMI. I thought post-indyref Oil price deniers were off the wall, but we've usurped that now
9. One of the reasons reporting PMIs is v important, it helps viewers understand decisions of Bank of england and Treasury re stimulus etc
10. At the same time as UK fell to 47.7, German PM up to over 55, France up to just over 50

10. Let's hope it's no recession. If you're angry at "doom laden PMI" then speak to a purchasing manager - or persuade someone to buy a car

www.independent.co.uk/news/people/kelvin-mackenzie-the-sun-column-channel-4-attack-nice-attack-hijab-fatima-manji-latest-a7150246.html
Kelvin Mackenzie defends his Nice journalist Fatima Manji comments.

Libertarians are fanatically non-interventionists in all areas of public and private life, including foreign policy... it would be pretty surreal to have a 3-way debate in which the only hawkish participant would be the Democrat.

They may just about appeal to the saner Republicans who find Trump distasteful, or who worry about his authoritarian tendencies. One can hope.

Not saying the PMI figures are not a leading indicator and could be a cause for concern. I am questioning who is saying it ( Brexit Torygraph and WSJ) and what their underlying motives might be. Also I am not convinced that under a month's data is enough to project a trend in the context of a "shock".

The FTSE is up on the day, and close to its historic high point and the £ is stable within its post Brexit trading range - it had ticked up on the day prior to the PMI figures which may or may not have caused it to drift back down.

I wonder if the Torygraph is trying to soften up its readers for an EEA deal?

On whether a GDP slump would affect the poor more I think the apologists for post 2008 growth have not made their case.

The hallmarks of austerity driven growth post 2008 have been:

• tax receipts consistently below expectations
• widening income disparity
• falling hh incomes for the bottom 20%
• underinvestment in health, education, housing

I was making the case in another thread that it is the South East and Greater London which supports the rest of the UK rather than Central London. I am also interested in how changes to the pupil premium will pan out (it is being considered in Scotland and could detrimentally affect rural areas in favour of inner cities).

I was shocked when I looked at the huge levels of FSM entitlement for children in Central London. Housing Benefit per head is also twice the average level for the rest of the UK. These sorts of figures do not look like a prosperous City able to take care of its own and everyone else.

A small point but regarding housing benefit payments in London this is surely just a function of the high housing costs there.

It is certainly true that growth since the last recession has not been shared at all equitably. A choice was made to pursue austerity instead of investing in jobs, infrastructure etc. My fear is that if we lose our EEA membership and all of the inward investment and economic stability that is contingent on that status, we may no longer have that choice to make, whoever is in government.

It is partly high housing costs kaiji but more pertinently local wage levels not reflecting local living costs. In an earlier post I contrasted Scottish housing policy with the rest of the UK. I didn't even get as far as discussing the sell off of Central London social housing which is being replaced by empty high end investment properties.

I know a London estate agent who voted for Brexit. His reasoning is partly that to thrive he needs a liquid market and a decent volume of local customers who can afford to transact in that market. Escalating house prices fuelled by overseas investment buyers and financiers do not help him.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/intelligence-services-using-dark-practices-against-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=twt_gu

Len McCluskey thinks security services are out to get Labour.

I've seen others say that they think the Momentum Winchester toffs are intelligence recruits who want to destroy Labour by supporting Corbyn, so this is almost a reversal of that.

Its almost like there is a total denial that this could be a real thing. No one wants to take ownership of the problem of lack of consensus and divisions in the party.

Its always someone else's fault.

Even Corbyn today saying that he has said he condemns bullying and that the party should get on with politics is flight and distancing from the problem rather than a head on grappling with the issue.

To be honest, I actually think that's the heart of the issue though, Corbyn as leader does not like confrontation and he does everything he can to avoid it. Even his support for causes like the IRA and Hamas seems to stem from that, and doesn't grasp the idea that whilst listening to the reasons behind those groups has merit, actually taking a role in which you legitimise causes its own problems rather than solving the division that exists. Its a fine line to tread and as a leader, you can not be directly involved - that's a job for other people to do more discreetly and quietly, in order to move the debate to another area where it is more mainstream and less militant. Instead his embracing of such causes is not exactly constructive as a result and tends to attract mutual militancy even he does not actively endorse it. His failure to do more than say a few words, means he is not tackling a problem of his own design.

You are either an outsider or part of the establishment. You can't actually be both. Both are needed and both should work together, but you can't be lead by someone who brings the fringes they court to the fore and then doesn't take any responsibility to manage those forces. Otherwise you just get chaos.

Yes absolutely low wages in London and elsewhere are subsidised to a huge degree through housing benefit and other in-work benefits. But I cannot see by what possible mechanism leaving the EU could solve this. Did your friend have an answer?

I, for one, would be sorry to see my Polish colleagues leave:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/22/polish-uk-brexit-dont-think-many-will-stay-poland-immigration?client=safari#

Yes, Hester, I am hearing this a lot and it's just awful.

On a lighter note (sort of), is everyone following MomentumTrumpton on Twitter? I recommend it.

Intelligence services posing as Jeremy Corbyn supporters could be behind the abuse and intimidation of MPs on social media in an attempt to “stir up trouble” for the Labour leader, the Unite boss Len McCluskey has suggested.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/intelligence-services-using-dark-practices-against-jeremy-corbyn

Glad that's sorted out. I was worried for a while.