Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Maybe he thought they really cared about sovereignty?

Waunfawr (Gwynedd) result:
PC: 75.8% (+18.6)
LAB: 24.2% (+24.2)
No Independent candidate from 2012.

Hackney Central (Hackney) result:
LAB: 75.2% (+11.2)
GRN: 9.9% (-13.0)
LDEM: 6.3% (-1.1)
CON: 5.6% (-0.2)
IND: 3.1% (+3.1)
Green vote goes to Labour?Hmmm

Bellingham (Lewisham) result:
LAB: 56.8% (+2.8)
CON: 18.2% (+5.4)
LDEM: 10.9% (+5.1)
PBP: 7.8% (-5.6) (People Before Profit)
UKIP: 6.3% (+6.3)
Previously TUSC and Greens stood candidates

www.thecanary.co/2016/07/20/theresa-mays-cabinet-scrambles-disassociate-extremist-think-tank-tied-donald-trump/
The Henry Jackson Society and the Cabinet.

The FT have hired a 'Brexit correspondent'!

Sorry Red you're probably right but the thought of Hollande playing bad cop is pretty giggle-worthy.

I don't find Merkel a scary prospect. She's not vindictive or irrational, and of course she should protect the interests of the EU and Germany. What is scary is not her personally, it's the situation Britain put itself and everyone else into.

Bigchoc something we definitely agree on. If the UK economy were structured more like Germany it would indeed be a much better place to live. Interestingly I was watching a report on English slum landlords on the news and reflecting how different Scotland is - right to buy has been suspended, (population is not growing so there is not same pressure on housing anyway), house prices are not ballooning, affordable housing is being built, the bedroom tax is ameliorated by Holyrood and is soon to be abolished, Landlord controls, building regs and tenancy rights are all FAR stronger. During all this Scotland has been working within GO's envelope but has made different choices. This has not been funded by the largesse of the Barnett formula as some suggest, but it is worth noting that as a result of these policies the Housing Benefit bill for Scotland is substantially lower.

I might even be inclined to tell TM and her ideas on good housekeeping that you have to fix the leaky roof when the sun isn't shining. Balancing your chequebook is not much good when your ceiling falls in through neglect.

On Turkey, following the attempted coup, everyone has been at pains to point out that Turkey IS a democracy. I think there is also a huge disconnect where the Europeans accept Turkey's domestic policies in relation to its NATO membership but not EU membership. A lot has happened in Turkey and in the EU over the last 30+ years and different decisions / policies could have been pursued by all parties.

Red one point of order on your summary. Surely Owen Smith and the Welsh are in fact making their bid for World domination. First retake the LP, then the government, then rejoin the EU and then sort out the rest. Who are we to pour cold water on his aspirations?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism?CMP=share_btn_tw
Corbyn's dodgy links. He's sounding dangerously George Galloway but less vocal.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-outed-journalist-mi6-spy-laugh-foreign-secretary-dominic-lawson-a7148481.html
Johnson endangered the lives of others by suggesting they were MI6.

Southcote (Reading) result:
LAB: 64.1% (+21.4)
CON: 26.1% (-8.8)
LDEM: 5.3% (+1.0)
GRN: 4.5% (+0.1)
No UKIP candidate from 2015.

Westone (Northampton) result:
LDEM: 49.7% (+36.4)
CON: 27.2% (-28.7)
LAB: 23.0% (-7.6)

36% swing?! WTF!
(Referendum Result: REMAIN 43,805 (42%) LEAVE 61,454 (58%) on a turnout of 73%)

Just place marking; thanks for the new thread, red

I hesitate to post this article on Milo and the Republican National Convention by Laurie Penny, as we've probably all had enough horror to be going on with, but it's just so compelling.

It's not about Brexit, yet in a sense I'm afraid it's very much about Brexit.

medium.com/welcome-to-the-scream-room/im-with-the-banned-8d1b6e0b2932#.xutmie38d

Chorley Rural North (Lancashire) result:
CON: 43.8% (+2.6)
LAB: 39.9% (+2.1)
UKIP: 11.6% (-5.7)
LDEM: 4.8% (+1.0)

That's a fine piece of writing by Laurie Penny.

I had to keep reminding myself that it wasn't fiction.

Is Westone any where near Andrea Leasdom's constituency? Maybe the electorate didn't realise what cock-eyed ideas she had and are now waking up?

At a time when the country is in crisis, to bang on about fox-hunting would have been a joke, if it wasn't so serious.

My (primary school age) son said this morning "someone should assassinate Trump". We had to point out someone had already tried. Out of the mouth of babes... Scary times.

Scary times indeed. Maybe things will get really bad before the world comes to its senses.
The New European is out today with an article by A C Grayling on why Parliament should resist Article 50.

www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/opinion/question_of_the_week/14633365.Will_Andrea_Leadsom_prove_to_be_a_disaster_of_a_Defra_minister_/?ref=mr&lp=11

www.alynsmith.eu/leadsom_could_seriously_damage_scottish_farming
Scottish farmers don't like Andrea.

Is Westone any where near Andrea Leasdom's constituency?

Westone is a ward in Northampton, which I believe, put it in Northampton North constituency. It looks to be safe Conservative area which the Lib Dems have had a decent showing at until 2015 when they got all but wiped out at. In the town council they had control of the local council until 2011 when they were trounced and lost 44% of their vote and we reduced to just 4 seats (Cons ended up with 26 and Labour 15 which shows just how much they lost). Obviously this is post Coalition, but there now looks to be a massive resurgence going on, with every reason to believe local support is back close to pre-2010 levels by the look of it.

Andrea Leadsom's constituency, is nearby but is the much more rural South Northamptonshire. I doubt her swivel eyes are the cause of this given the history of the Lib Dems in the town itself and other, not dissimilar results, which seem to have been going on over the last couple of weeks.

The interesting thing for me, is in national polling, there does not seem to have been a huge shift back to the Lib Dems in Westminster voting intention so whether this is just a local thing or whether the polls are not reflecting 'something' I don't know.

I'll have a closer look at this later if I get chance as there is definitely a big LD resurgence going on, at least in pockets, around the country which seems to be off the radar of the press.

Thanks Red. Your summary could be describing my own Local Authority. 25 years ago the Tories were wiped out by the Lib Dems but by 2015 were back with a vengeance.

As far as the Parliamentary situation was concerned - I am sure that the Lib Dem presence in Local Government helped to build a platform for the subsequent Parliamentary win which was for Evan Harris. The seat went narrowly Conservative in 2010 and the majority increased in 2015. It's possible that a strong local base will help to rebuild the party again - I have to try to live in hope.

That Laurie Penny article is chilling. It states what I've felt for a long time, the really dangerous populists are those who believe in nothing* except themselves and have the single goal of accumulating power to themselves. In other times they can be a troublesome nuisance but our political and economic times means that if you find people's fears, identify someone to blame, and then promise a ridiculous solution using any measures (and especially by using coercion/force), many people will fall into a state of unquestioning belief.

It struck me that she lumps Boris Johnson in with those populists and I don't think she's wrong.

This morning the radio woke me with Donald Trump screaming repetitive, empty, and nonsensical promises at a baying crowd. I thought "that is the Brexit campaign on steroids".

• by definition they can never be proved wrong

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/gove-s-olive-branch-to-johnson-was-rebuffed-with-stony-silence-b65pxvntr
The rest of the article is behind a pay wall. Poor old Michael.

I guess Gove's route to rehabilitation will be via Sarah Vine articles telling us how terribly misunderstood he is and how he is hurting desperately through no real fault of his own. It'll turn out that the only people really losing out is us because we're not receiving the benefit of his brilliance.

He'd be better off going down the Profumo route and cleaning the toilets of the poor while staying well away from public life.

But why should BoJo reject Michael's offer? He got the Foreign Secretary job; isn't he happy with that? Lots and lots of lovely travel at public expense!

He got the Foreign Secretary job; isn't he happy with that? No he's been stitched up good and proper.

Hi Peregrina. I'm I. The same constituency and also live in hope of a non-Tory MP. It's at least good to know the seat has the potential to change hands... I don't think the last lib dem candidate was great (although I voted for her anyway) very focused on oxford local issues which didn't apply to more rural parts of the constituency..

The lib dems have always had a good shoring on local councils where they seem just to get on with the job and run things reasonably efficiently without either building over every play area of collapsing into in-fighting. Hopefully this will help them rebuild a broader base party. Heaven knows someone has to be the opposition if labour aren't up to the job.

The Guardian report on Newsnight interview:
In his Newsnight interview, leadership questions aside, Jeremy Corbyn said it was unlikely the Brexiters would get what they want on immigration:

I have made the point all along that the single market does include free movement of labour, and if you go away from that you’re not in the single market …

Because if we say we’re going to start restricting, then it works both ways: it will also restrict British people going to live and work in Europe. I think that is going to be impossible within a single market.

He did also concede it had been a mistake to call for the triggering of article 50 the day after the referendum:
I may not have put that as well as I should have done … Article 50 will be invoked at some point. I did not mean it should be invoked on Friday morning and we should rush over to Brussels and start negotiating.

And also report on his Sky interview this morning:
“I wish some of my colleagues would concentrate on political issues. I regret the language that has been used by all of them. I don’t do any abuse, I don’t do any bullying, I don’t allow it to be done in any of my campaigning teams.

“And I’m very surprised and actually very disappointed that they should say that because politics has to be about bringing people in and I think we have done that spectacularly well.

“We are now the largest membership we have ever had. That’s good. It’s not a threat it’s a good thing that people come together and want to debate and be active in politics and our society. Isn’t that good for democracy?”

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-workplace-discrimination-could-be-unlawful-claims-leading-law-firm-a7149171.html
Corbyn's plan to publish gender pay audits could breech human rights say law firm.
“The principle is an extension of the current Government’s gender pay gap reporting requirements but going into such a granular level of detail when it comes to employee pay and equality characteristics would likely mean that employees would be identifiable. This would be a breach of human rights and data protection law and would expose companies to legal challenge and probably also investigations by the ICO and Human Rights Commission,"

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/77559/conor-mcginn-i-can-no-longer-tolerate-jeremy
St Helens's North MP Conor McGinn on Jeremy Corbyn and how he threated to call his Dad on him (McGinn's Dad is a Sinn Fein Councillor). Corbyn's spokesman has denied it happened.

wire.novaramedia.com/2016/07/democracy-suspended-what-really-happened-at-the-brighton-labour-agm/?utm_content=buffer5d450&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
What really happened at the Brighton Labour AGM (If you remember they were suspended afterwards)

l-r-c.org.uk/news/story/ann-black-and-the-centre-left-grassroots-alliance-slate-for-nec/
Ann Black who made the decision about Brighton, is being targeted as a result to remove her from the NEC.

This being greeted on twitter with comments like this:
cannot believe this. A real purge by the left for being Insufficiently left. Ann was always Indy with decisions.

www.politico.eu/article/why-france-is-unlikely-to-spoil-brexit-party-francois-hollande-theresa-may/
Politico.Eu have an article about France and how whilst they seem to be tough, and certainly more tough than Germany, their tone seems to have changed. They note:
What has gone from the French position in recent weeks is the original intention to “make Britain pay” to serve as an example to others. The extent of the post-referendum crisis in the U.K., the semblance of political chaos in the days following the vote, the likely economic impact on the U.K. of the current uncertainty, are now seen as strong enough deterrents to any other country contemplating a similar “exit” from Europe, the diplomat noted.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/21/theresa-may-meets-francois-hollande-french-president-demands-pm/
May - Hollande meeting. Calais border stays (noting of course that Hollande is only there until next May). He wants things done quickly.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-negotiators-david-davis-didier-seeuws-cecilia-malmstroem-martin-schulz-eu-a7149806.html
The Brexit Negotiators. Not our lot. Their lot. This bunch sound scary.

europe.newsweek.com/prosecute-isis-war-criminals-says-boris-johnson-482968?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=http%3A%2F%2Feurope.newsweek.com%2Frss%2Fsocial
Johnson wants ISIS in war crimes court. I see no problems in this at all.

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/jul/22/after-brexit-the-uk-still-has-a-role-to-play-in-preventing-conflict?CMP=twt_gu
UK still has an international role to play in preventing conflict post Brexit.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/europol-chief-rows-back-brexit-project-fear-warnings/
Interpol chief backtracks on pre-referendum comments about how we would be less safe under brexit.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/21/how-brexit-can-set-britain-free-to-boom-again/
How the pound devaluing will help us to boom again under Brexit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/david-cameron-accused-gross-negligence-brexit-contingency-plans?CMP=share_btn_tw
Commons Select Committee accuses Cameron over gross negligence over Brexit plans.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/david-cameron-honours-delayed-as-questions-raised-over-nominees?CMP=twt_gu
Cameron's post PM nominations for honours are being questioned and help up by the Lords over their 'suitability'. Interesting stuff given the above about his judgement being called into question there too.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-britain-could-end-up-rejoining-the-eu-after-a-decade-of-brexit-a7148636.html
Why Britain could end up rejoining the Eu after a decade of Brexit.
Its not the best article on the subject, but given 6 years to Brexit has been quoted by Hammond (and frankly that's optimist) and with things slipping due to legal challenges, you do have to wonder...

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/all-the-worst-stories-the-government-buried-today_uk_5790924ae4b0e3583c7851cf
The Huff Post have 6 things the government buried on the last day of term

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/government-sneaks-out-report-revealing-8467528#ICID=sharebar_twitter
The Mirror reveal some data that has been released by the government about how many people can't afford the bedroom tax.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ditch-big-projects-urgently-to-avoid-chaos-urges-watchdog-20pg7lzh5
The National Audit Office says the government should ditch big projects post brexit as we can't afford them

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/what-do-theresa-may-s-two-most-important-advisers-believe-a7149116.html
What do May's two special advisors believe? This is worth a read. Its about Fiona Hill, a 42-year old Scot, and Nick Timothy, a 36-year old from Birmingham.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/womens-equality-party-theresa-may-goals-first-100-days-prime-minister?CMP=twt_gu
The Women's Equality Party throw the gauntlet down for May to achieve certain goals.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/brexit-benefits-timebomb-ticking-poor-working-families
May's benefit's timebomb.

Isn't that a rosy picture. Then you read the Telegraph:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/21/the-tories-are-destroying-labour-with-their-progressive-policies/
The Tories are all about the poor. Labour are being destroyed by it. (There was me thinking it was due to infighting. Silly me. I now stand corrected).

news.scotland.gov.uk/News/British-Irish-Council-to-discuss-EU-275b.aspx
Nicola Sturgeon to attend British - Irish Council meeting on the EU.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/22/wales-booming-brexit-derail-unemployment-investment-eu
A Welsh View

Trump News:
Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam

"Americanism not Globalism will be our credo - the American people will come first once again" ... Trump told
Telegraph:
'Trump's speech was unpopular with fact checkers, who reported that many of the figures were misleading or inaccurate'

Hmm. Where have we heard this before...

Dexra I am pretty sure my DF, who was a regular contributor to the Scottish Farmer, would not have been at all impressed with AL's hill farms and butterflies comments. (I still have hope that the quote was taken out of context within a wider debate about the distortions caused by EU subsidies and set aside policies etc).

Probably worth noting that farming policy is devolved and the Scottish Government has been fined for delays and mismanagement in making EU payments. My concern is about whether Fergus Ewing is up to the job. This is probably another area where Scotland could look for a differential EU settlement from the rest of the UK? - I proposed Universities and immigration policy earlier.

Re Boris and Gove I think the real Question is why Gove thinks he has any leverage over Boris or why it would be in Boris' interests to help in Gove's rehabilitation. BJ, AL, LF and DD all have key Brexit cabinet posts. Gove is the notable exception. Were it not for his stunt I think it quite likely he would have stayed at Justice since the Remain side seemed to accept he had considered both sides of the debate rather than being a rabid Brexiteer and he was widely regarded as doing a decent job. From TM's point of view she may already be wishing she had kept Gove rather than promoting LT but that would have been difficult given all sides of the PCP seem equally disgusted by his antics.

Our constituency, had a genuine three way race in 2010. The Tories got in taking the seat off Labour. In 2015 the Lib Dems only just got their deposit back. Labour didn't do well at all.

The Labour Party have just announced their Labour candidate if there is an early election. He's the same one as the last two times. He is HATED by everyone. Including local Labour Party members (he's been parachuted in from outside by the party higher up). He stood in May for a local parish council. He got one. Just. He scrapped in by the skin of his teeth to get the last seat out of 12 I believe. I know a lot of Labour people who have expressed views that they would rather have one of the prospective Lib Dem candidates. He's that bad. Locally the Lib Dems did well in May, and exceeded expectations before the referendum. The constituency voted 'Remain' (even though the counting area was leave). The local Tory MP, has privately said he does not wish to stand again, so there will be no incumbent effect (he's been good locally I have to admit, though his voting record and support for Leadsom make me go crosseyed). A number of people who are very active in our local community and are conservative supporters have defected to the Lib Dems. The local Conservatives are struggling as it is, to get fresh blood to join up to the party and this inactivity is killing them. One of the incumbent councillors who is in her 80s had to stand as no one else would stand in the May elections, even though she didn't want to. They are quite literally all dying off.

It does make me wonder, what else is going on nationally. I suspect a lot of these themes are going on elsewhere. I also think there will be other themes, which are equally bizarre and will shake a few trees in other types of area. I do not think that politics will be anywhere near as predictable as we have been lead to believe. These by-elections really are all over the place.

I want to see a few by-election results for NW, NE and Midland heartlands, that's for sure.