Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Signing in.

I think Angela is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Theresa is bowing and scraping to her already. I'm fearful. Reassure me.

debate Scotland in EU options at Westminster
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36853286 MPs debate Scotland in EU options at Westminster Debate led by Ian Murray who resigned as the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland is now Scottish Labour's spokesman in Westminster (appointed by Kezia Dugdale).

I think it's disingenuous the WM Government dismissing claims that Scotland has a veto if that's what the Attorney General said as NS was very careful not to let Andrew Marr put those words in her mouth (and pulled him up on it when he tweeted that he had) - all she would say was that it put Scotland in a strong position.

For the moment I think it serves both leaders (of Scotland and WM) to have Scotland as a "dragging" force. It gives TM the chance to catch breath and draw up plans - while blaming the Scots - and it gives NS time to build European contacts (since the doors are now more open than they were - not saying that they are fully open yet) and buys her time before calling Indyref2 (as she explicitly doesn't want one until she is confident she can win) with a more concrete European proposal.

Agree prettybird.

I wonder, when she's alone in her hotel room, if May looks in the mirror and says "Shit, I don't know what to do."

For the moment I think it serves both leaders (of Scotland and WM) to have Scotland as a "dragging" force.

Hmmm, yes.

Nicola Sturgeon is the new Nick Clegg.

The useful political idiot the Tories can point to when their Frother Wing gets impatient.

Not that I think NS is an idiot. But she's certainly being used by both sides here.

I hope she's as good a strategist as I suspect, because Scotland will be fucked over by either side if it suits them.

Previous lurker here.

Are they really all going to eff off on a summer holiday and leave so much stuff hanging? That's mad, surely?

I've never understood MPs having summer hols like a bunch of kids but now I'm even more about it

Yes they are.

And a good thing too.

This is going to take years to sort out.

A nice break and return to relative normality will do us all good.

Crisis mode can only go on for so long.

4 weeks is plenty.

Joining thread. Thanks once more for your sterling work Red.

Nicola Sturgeon will learn the lesson Cameron didn't (which I've seen attributed to Harold Wilson somewhere) - never call a referendum if you're not sure you will win.

Swedish I think no one could be completely sure of what they're doing in May's position. I don't like her political outlook but she has picked up a very shitty hand of cards, undoubtedly.

It's almost October before it all starts up again as there's the party conference season to go first. Labour's will be interesting. I wonder if Momentum have already booked out the hotel.

Nicola Sturgeon will learn the lesson Cameron didn't (which I've seen attributed to Harold Wilson somewhere) - never call a referendum if you're not sure you will win.

Or in Cameron's case, never pretend you're going to call a referendum unless you're sure you're going to LOSE the election and have a coalition partner to blame when you renege on your fake promise.

TendonQueen - I don't think it's a case of "NS will learn the lesson..."

....she plays the long game (as did Alex Salmond when he led the SNP's campaign to vote in favour of devolution as a means to an end, when there were many in the SNP who thought it was a distraction from true independence).

I've heard her say that she doesn't want another referendum until she's confident of getting at least 60% - which probably means polls consistently suggesting that (to allow for statistical margin of error and another concerted Establishment "Better Together" campaign).

So it's going to be a delicate balancing act: having another referendum before she's rely ready for one versus capitalising on anti-Brexit sentiment.

How any potential EU relationship might be shaping up will be key (both from a UK and Scotland perspective). However, contrary to what the Express, the Mail and the Telegraph might say () - I think that these discussions will be kept under the radar for as long as they can and not telegraphed for the delectation of the MSM - precisely because they are so delicate.

So no news will actually be good news.

Thanks v much Red et al

Lots of local by-elections tonight to watch.

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/21/after-a-week-of-big-national-developments-ten-local-by-elections/

"Nicola Sturgeon is the new Nick Clegg"

placemarking (again) these threads have been a total education for me - and a place of sanity and reason. So pleased they have stayed so reasonable

Tonights By-Elections

1. Exmouth Littleham (East Devon)
   Con

2. Honiton St Michael's (East Devon)
   Con

3. Chorley Rural North (Lancashire)
   Con

4. Balderton South (Newark & Sherwood)
   Con

5. Weston (Northampton)
   Con

6. Great Wyrley Town (South Staffordshire)
   Con

7. Warlingham West (Tandridge)
   Con

8. Hackney Central (Hackney)
   Labour

9. Bellingham (Lewisham)
   Labour

10. Southcote (Reading)
    Labour

11. Waunfawr (Gwynedd)
    Plaid

Ooo sorry SwedishEdith you beat me to it.

Marking place on this excellent thread. Am just on way home from holiday in Canada, where I met lots of nice locals who couldn't resist a mild smirk at the current state of UK politics...

French update on May's Grand Tour of Europe - not much happened in Paris.

Hollande repeated that single market = free movement, which is news to no one but the Brexiters.

He generously "allowed" the new UK government time to settle in before it triggers A50, which means that the will to present a united front alongside Germany is stronger than the temptation to play up the rhetoric for the domestic audience. For now.

Hollande most likely won't be around for the Brexit negotiations, but I'd be highly surprised if French policy changed at all. It's all pretty consensual across parties. (except for the FN, obviously)

Hollande was demanding May 'justified why we were delaying a50'. He is bad cop. Merkel is good cop.

I think Angela is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Theresa is bowing and scraping to her already. I'm fearful. Reassure me
Errr Merkel has form for buttering up the Greek PM and then destroying him in negotiations.

Warlingham West (Tandridge) result:
CON: 56.5% (-0.6)
LDEM: 33.6% (+12.6)
UKIP: 9.9% (-4.0)

Thanks for the new thread, brilliant info as always, red You keep us informed (and sane !)

Reply to old thread:
Why Turkey has been kept out of the EU for so many years:

a) Cyprus - Greece kept lobbying to keep them out, but didn't need to because of b)
b) Democratic & human rights deficit - Turkey has never come close to satisfying the EU minimum and is further away than ever. Damn right they shouldn't join.

Not discriminatory:
The EU didn't allow (white Christian) Greece, Spain, Portugal to join while they were fascist dictatorships, but welcomed them once they became democracies
The EU also welcomed the E European countries once they became free of communist dictatorship.

Germany and the Euro (reply to old thread)

Germany wanted to keep its DMark, but was forced to agree to the Euro by France:
France had a cunning plan - which worked about as well as Baldrick's cunning plans - to keep a united Germany from becoming too powerful and dominating the EU economy

Somehow they overlooked basic economics:
having a common currency tends to increase differences between strong & weaker economies, because weaker countries can no longer devalue to compete.

I love living in Germany, mainly:

• The higher taxes pay for brilliant public services and transport infrastructure
• Far less social inequality, far more social mobility
• A sound economy, based on the powerhouse of manufacturing throughout Germany - not like the UK which is dependent on the casino capitalism of the City of London and on people selling services to each other.
• Powerful trade unions and mandatory Works Councils where unions and employers cooperate together
• Millions of permanent well-paid jobs, genuine 35 or 40 hrs, not working unpaid all hours.
• No housing spiral, most folk rent because you can stay securely for 50+ years, decorate to your own taste, have your own kitchen & bathroom installed.

I'm horrified and still pinching myself to wake up that politicians from the UK's 3rd largest party (by GE votes):
Admire Hitler
Incite the murder of Remainers - like FUCK was he kidding; he was just wishing by tweet, the modern equivalent of thinking aloud

Buyer's Remorse - Asian MEP Brexiter

Amazing insider story by a 3rd gen British Indian who was a UKIP MEP - he is horrified he ever joined UKIP:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/as-a-british-indian-and-ukip-adviser-i-believed-in-brexit-but-what-its-done-to-the-country-has-a7127461.html

"Put simply, the Ukip MEPS I came across were far too focused on the next European Parliamentary election and their salary package.
Advisers were just told to collate stats and facts so that the usual rhetoric could be disseminated around the Parliamentary Chambers with the snarling and aggressive nature that became the Ukip trademark.
There was little political will beyond that."

"On the night of 24th June I went outside and it felt like Kristallnacht.
I heard a large group of drunken men singing songs thanking Nigel Farage and shouting, “Immigrants out!” in the same breath.
This is what I came home to: I came home broken."

It's a sad story right enough but WHAT THE HELL WAS HE THINKING???