Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Dexra I am pretty sure my DF, who was a regular contributor to the Scottish Farmer, would not have been at all impressed with AL's hill farms and butterflies comments Snap howabout My dad was forever firing off letters to the SF. He often got them published since he was good friends with Alisdair Fletcher, the editor.
My concern is about whether Fergus Ewing is up to the job He's new into the job. I heard him speak at Scotsheep this year and he was trying his best to understand farmers' concerns. I think people are giving him the benefit of the doubt atm.

Politicians to blame for rise of 'respectable racism', says Lady Warsi

What’s happening to this country has happened before, in other nations, in other anxious, violent times when all the old certainties peeled away and maniacs took the wheel. It’s what happens when weaponised insincerity is applied to structured ignorance. Donald Trump is the Gordon Gekko of the attention economy, but even he is no longer in control. This culture war is being run in bad faith by bad actors who are running way off-script, and it’s barely begun, and there are going to be a lot of refugees.

^ This paragraph from the Penny article stood out for me. Depressing

two thoughts on the Independent article on French politics -

What has gone from the French position in recent weeks is the original intention to “make Britain pay” to serve as an example to others. The extent of the post-referendum crisis in the U.K., the semblance of political chaos in the days following the vote, the likely economic impact on the U.K. of the current uncertainty, are now seen as strong enough deterrents to any other country contemplating a similar “exit” from Europe

This strikes me as highly premature. Who knows what Britain's economy and politics will look like by the time the negotiations start in earnest.

Hollande has been and remains explicit on the trade-off he will seek for restrictions of movement: The end of the so-called “financial passport” that allows EU-based banks and fund managers to market their wares in all of the member countries without additional, national regulations.

This is a clever negotiating position, because it could prove a popular trade-off in Britain. Curb immigration, and hit the London bankers in one go? What's not to like!

What I don't know is what the "real" repercussions would be on Britain's economy. Clearly the weight of the financial sector is not particularly healthy or helpful for the country as a whole, but would the cure be worse than the disease?

Exmouth Littleham (East Devon) result:
CON: 45.3% (+19.0)
LDEM: 38.7% (+20.2)
LAB: 16.0% (+16.0)
Con HOLD.
No Ind, UKIP and Grn candidates.

Great Wyrley Town (South Staffordshire) result:
CON: 50.9% (+1.2)
LAB: 32.8% (+5.5)
UKIP: 16.3% (-6.7)

Honiton St Michael's (East Devon) result:
CON: 39.8% (+0.3)
IND: 23.2% (+2.8)
LAB: 21.6% (+21.6)
UKIP: 15.4% (-5.3)

Balderton South (Newark & Sherwood) result:
CON: 82.4% (+25.5)
LDEM: 17.6% (+17.6)
No Labour candidate from 2015.

Chorley Rural North (Lancashire) result:
CON: 43.8% (+2.6)
LAB: 39.9% (+2.1)
UKIP: 11.6% (-5.7)
LDEM: 4.8% (+1.0)

I think that's the last from last night.

I think UKIP's inability to stand local candidates may be an Achilles heel. How can they claim to be in touch, when they don't have the people and the commitment to local level government, especially when ironically, this seems to be something that many in the party are campaigning for??

This NEEDS to be exploited by everyone else.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/tim-farron-turmoil-makes-case-for-voting-reform-1-8025098
Tim Farron, stealing Caroline Lucas's thunder on electoral reform debate this week.

Having lived in East Devon once, I suspect that the vote in Exmouth is old Tory, the retired Colonel types, so no surprise with those results. Honiton is a bit more of a puzzle, with its strong Labour turnout.

Honiton = no Lib Dem candidate?

First tangible sign that the UK economy is already taking a real hit. PMI data for July suggest the biggest one-month fall ever.

The UK economy saw a "dramatic deterioration" in the wake of the Brexit vote, as a closely watched barometer of private sector business showed activity dropped to its lowest level since the financial crisis.

The pound dropped by a cent against the dollar to $1.3173 and a cent against the euro, to €1.1940 after Markit's "flash" survey suggested the UK economy was on course to contract by 0.4pc in the third quarter.

The decline in Britain's dominant services sector was the steepest since records began 20 years ago, according to Markit. Optimism about future growth also fell at the fastest pace since records started in 1996.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/22/ftse-100-slides-but-pound-gains-ahead-of-uk-manufacturing-and-se/

(Telegraph link because if even they say it's bad, then it's really bad...)

Commentators are saying that the most worrying bit is the huge fall in confidence in the services sector.

Another worrying finding is that eurozone economies did really well this month, there's speculation they may actually be benefiting from UK uncertainty.

Apart from the Northamptonshire vote, the Labour vote is up in all cases, and this is despite the chaos in the PLP. So is a party led by Corbyn unelectable? I really don't know what to make of it all myself, but I don't even vote Labour tactically, because they have zero chance around her.

Here, not her.

(but exports doing well thanks to weak pound, so, there's that!)

I take it everyone has seen the 'Nazi salute' at the Republican Conference by Laura Ingraham?

Given what the Tories have done to the country, it is a sign of unforgivable incompetence on Corbyn's part that their figures are still so weak.

Captain Caveman would be electable as Labour Leader at this point.

Thank you Red, marking my place.

Place marking

That was really menacing, JC threatening to call up Sinn Fein - his longterm mates

Anyone who happily associates with Sinn Fein, Hamas et al probably doesn't recognise bullying unless it involves knee-capping or throwing someone off a building.

Owen Smith complained of a “culture of bullying” under JC
In Sky News interview, he said he had no reason to doubt claims made against Corbyn by Labour MPs Conor McGinn and Angela Eagle

In any other work environment, if several people were complaining of repeated bullying, threats of murder & rape, threats against their kids, we wouldn't be minimising it - we'd demand the responsible manager be sacked - and that the police investigate the whole organisation, Momentum or JC Ltd in this case.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/22/corbyn-eagle-abuse-labour-mps-cameron-honours-politics-live

Thanks Kaija for this Laurie Penny article which I've now read:
medium.com/welcome-to-the-scream-room/im-with-the-banned-8d1b6e0b2932#.zd63dm1lh

Very alarming. And I agree, there are parallels with the UK/ Brexit issue in the way that amoral individuals are prepared to exploit and lie to the electorate in the pursuit of power. Very cynical.

Jed, I too was struck by this quote about what is happening:
'...weaponised insincerity applied to structured ignorance.'

We have to ask questions about education in these places where unhappy people so readily believe untruths and seem to have no access to alternative viewpoints.

it's not just education though, it's the way our perception of the world is structured by the media that surrounds us. It's so easy to live in an echo chamber, where you only read the newspapers that present your viewpoint, follow people on Twitter who agree with you, etc.

Google/Facebook certainly know all about my political leanings and only suggest ads and articles that broadly support my views.

It's even worse in the US because they don't have politically neutral tv/radio like the BBC, instead you can just choose to listen to right-wing radio hosts and Fox News. You would never, ever be exposed to any contradictory viewpoints. Same is true on the other side of the political spectrum.

I don't know how you fight that, but I suspect that school education as we know it is necessary, but not sufficient.

Sorry, but this idea that the City losing Passporting / its top status is hitting rich bankers is rubbish:
They won't be hurt at all

All those in the top jobs and also quite a few levels down will be relocated, all exoenses paid,
Even at my level when I've moved I got a full relocation package with transport of all goods, hotel with meals for months and help to find somewhere permanent.
All organised for me and I actually had a higher standard of living for those months and made a profit.
Real highflyers would do even better

Those who lose their jobs will be the thousands of lower level support workers on very mundane pay. Anyone whose skills aren't in short supply sill be thrown on the job market to compete with all the millions of others at the same level

The country will lose a lot of the 10% of our GDP that the City produces and all the tax those firms and tens of thousands of employees pay.

Also iirc 80% of UK exports are actually "services" not manufactured widgets.
So even if Passporting is lost, the UK needs the single market in services too, which the EEA does not yet have.
A lot of negotiating to do and a steep learning curve for the 3 Brexiteers on how the UK actually earns its money.

I'm guessing Laura Ingraham is some sort of Hatie Kopkins? What are these people playing at?

And yet we have the likes of Patrick Minford on the Today programme this morning saying that nothing has changed since the vote, all is well, and the only effects will be a few million quid on export tariffs which we can easily recover by applying import tariffs.

Yes BigChoc, my starting assumption is always that top earners will not be the ones to suffer

But that's not what it'll look like to the public

If May explains she couldn't get the immigration curbs she wanted, because she had to protect passporting for the City, I really don't think it'll go down well

She's going to need the backing of the press to sell that to the public, and I'm not sure she'll get it

Bigchoc there is another thread running about JC which is quite illuminating. Your shock about references to Sinn Fein councillors if not tongue in cheek shows how effective the smears against JC are proving. According to the other thread he was suggesting to the son of said SF councillor that he might like to consult with his father before pontificating about the past - seems entirely reasonable to me. In much the same vein I am more than tempted to suggest that Tony Benn who have more than a little to say to Hilary if he were still around. It is not much of an endorsement that the Kinnock dynasty are showing such a united front against JC imho.

I agree with you on City Fat Cats prospering in all weathers, having myself previously benefited from relocation packages. Where we part company is that I would rather not have an economy where this is the norm for the successful but the rest just have to "get on their bike" in the face of change. I am also very uncomfortable with a Central London economy where the masses in the service sector are dependent on serving their rich masters rather than each other.

I think a drop in GDP would be worth it if it means school shoes for all at the expense of a few pairs of leopard print kitten heels.

Kick the bankers, kick Cameron, kick the metropolitan elites, and kick out the immigrants are very clear motivations for many. Nasty side effects when implemented though.

The last thing I want to see is another question put to the public because quite simply I'd expect an even more dishonest campaign launched to exploit the basest instincts of the noisiest. I want to see politicians behave like grown-ups and give the country exactly what it voted for, that it is leave the EU.

I just don't see why additionally the government should have to deliver what a subset believe they voted for while at the same time many of these voters are pretending that instead they voted to eliminate discrimination against Commonwealth immigrants or to eliminate exploitation of EU workers. What kind of pantomime is that?