Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Similarities between Boris and Trump allegedly include: a privileged background, a complete belief in yourself and a willingness to embroider the truth:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/25/embrace-immigration-borisndonalds-seven-point-guide-to-being-a-highly-effective-politician

I'd add to that: an ability to put your foot in it, and offend people.
Scary the power they have.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-heads-to-belfast-to-reassure-northern-ireland-about-brexit-negotiations-a7153536.html

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/25/why-corbyn-support-for-disabled-people-not-enough?CMP=twt_gu

www.aol.co.uk/news/2016/07/24/nicola-sturgeon-determined-to-find-options-to-protect-eu-interests/

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-british-economy-hit-how-will-it-affect-it-find-out-this-week-a7153201.html
When you get a big shock to the economy it is better to look at what people do, not what they say – people do not always tell the truth to pollsters

A new way in politics? Cross party similarities and allegiances...

www.moreunited.uk/

Hester Interesting I knew Paddy was working on something........

I am no Boris fan, but I don't think he's nearly as dangerous as Trump.

Boris strikes me as a superficial, entitled twat. But I think he fundamentally believes in democracy and liberal values.

While Trump has zero respect for institutions and the rule of law. The man will turn himself into a fascist dictator if they let him.

Apologies I post the last message too soon

May is in NI today.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/25/theresa-may-rule-out-return-border-checks-between-uk-ireland?CMP=twt_gu
She is supposed to be ruling out border checks.

Which runs against the idea of controlling free movement of people. Even if you have controls over who can work here, you leave such a massive loophole that you have to ask questions about what that means for illegal immigration. Look at the USA has and its problems with illegal migration, both economic and socially. Is that what we are aspiring to become?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809
Strangely May said this last month:
Home Secretary Theresa May has said it is "inconceivable" that there will not be any changes on border arrangements with the Republic of Ireland, if the UK pulls out of the European Union.

Several people point out the use of the word 'if' in the above - as though this means that May has no intention of leaving the EU or she would be talking about those borders she's now saying won't happen.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-politicians-threaten-legal-challenge-to-brexit-1.2733162?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Oh and look here. A legal challenge so perhaps there is a growing recognition that government can't do what Brexiteers want.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-student-visas-brexit-uk-degrees-foreign-students-a7153246.html
International students look set to get hammered though. Which doesn't look good for British students wanting to study abroad. Or the status of our education system internationally.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/how-david-cameron-plan-to-screw-labour-cost-him-the-eu-referendum_uk_5790bae5e4b0e3583c789316?edition=uk
Yesterday, hidden within the cache of information dumped on the government website before ministers went to recess, was a clue as to what went wrong: a written statement by Gary Streeter, a spokesperson for the Speaker’s Committee on the Electoral Commission, which reported a full nine percentage point drop between 10th June 2014 and 1st December 2015 in the number of 18-19 year olds registered to vote

So the young screwed in education because they were screwed about being able to vote.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit?CMP=twt_gu
A must read - its about the trade off between sovereignty and economy. Guess what, the young get screwed. There are some who are saying that 16 hour queues at Dover are deliberate and part of this.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-article-50-general-election-eu-referendum-leave-tory-chairman-patrick-mcloughlin-a7153141.html
I know someone has mentioned this already but 2020? You what?

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nigel-farage-donald-trump-republican-convention-muslims-us-election-2016-a7153206.html
And Republican supporters who have cheered a presidential candidate who wants to block Muslims from entering the United States and oppose any gun controls make Mr Farage feel "left wing" and confused.

Meanwhile dickface, feels how a lot of us have been feeling for the last 2 months.

I'm going through the angry phrase again. Brexit unleashed so many things that people are unwilling to admit to, which in historical hindsight will all be linked together.

Howabout - However ready Jeremy Corbyn might be to move on to implement Brexit (and some might say he almost seems to welcome it), most people who are not complete fringe lunatics are recommending a cautious approach to the invocation of article 50 as it then puts us on the back foot in terms of negotiations. JC does not appear to be thinking through the implications of taking a massive step and that is not a good characteristic for a leader. What other big mistakes might he make if he ever became prime minister?

The new restrictions on international students really worry me

They worry me for the HE sector which is becoming a Brexit punching ball

And they worry me because they suggest that May wasn't just begrudgingly following orders when she was implementing terrible and damaging immigration policies as Home Secretary, she was actually believing in it all

A must read - its about the trade off between sovereignty and economy. Guess what, the young get screwed. There are some who are saying that 16 hour queues at Dover are deliberate and part of this.

An interesting article, and it resonates with me because deep down I care more about the EU than about Britain (even though my personal economic interests are in Britain - guess I am just as economically irrational as the Brexiteers after all). But at this time it reads to me more as a strategy suggestion by Luyendijk than as an description of the EU's actual game plan. Although I'm sure it's all part of the discussion.

I keep trying to think of a solution that would spare the UK economic pain while still not hurting the EU - so the Norway lite option is what I keep coming back to, in spite of its flaws.

I'm think actually moving to Norway is the best plan? I love Norway.

Interesting article about Momentum - the holding company was renamed last week and now is 'Jeremy for Labour ltd' strange they didn't bother telling anyone

www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/inside-the-complex-snarl-of-companies-which-control-the-pro?utm_term=.tq71L1ly1#.opWrLrOzr

I love Norway.

Norway has a massive social security sector. The cost of living is much higher, but you get more protection from government in return.

Brexit won't. That's why Brexit will always be flawed.

Instead, its looking like we are going the other way, which is towards all the flaws socially of the US with inequality and lack of social security and workers rights.

Education and technology which are two great assets are being thrown under the bus to do this.

A free trade deal with China is getting massive attention from the government despite there being a potentially strong link between Chinese imports and high Leave areas with social deprivation.

I am actually struggling to see a single thing that May is doing that gives me hope about the direction the country is going. Its sure as hell not going the direction that benefits the young and the way the young want it to go.

But that's ok, they don't vote - because they were deliberately disenfranchised to screw Labour. Or they have been recruited to the lame duck of ideologically pure Corbynism that doesn't seem to grasp the concept that the problem is NOW not ten years down the line.

^ See I'm in Angry mode again.

Norway still has National Service, interestingly.

www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/no-personnel.htm

Boris strikes me as a superficial, entitled twat. But I think he fundamentally believes in democracy and liberal values.

I'm not sure he actually believes in them but he finds it expedient to pretend he does, which is better than being totally disdainful of them like Trump.

Thanks again for the interesting links Red. (Although the Huffpost one won't open).
Norway is appealing in some ways, Showme, but I don't think disenchanted UK folks will have any kind of right to go and live there in the future. (Or anywhere, except Wales!)

I like the idea of Norway, but it's still a very white country, and still very expensive to live in.

I do not want national service in any way shape or form.

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/07/caught-the-sun-does-a-shameless-u-turn-within-days-on-cost-of-brexit-to-economy/

I am perplexed by comments made by Lady Smith and the Frances Ryan opinion piece seeking to speak for the disabled Red linked to.

It is my recollection that it was only after JC replaced HH that the PLP even started to question the efficacy of welfare cuts. Up until that point I sat through numerous tortuous interviews with HH and co balancing the need for "something to be done to address the concerns of the deserving" while seeking to silence their conscience.

My recollection of the influences at play were that JC changed the tone of the opposition so completely that it then became possible for Conservative backbenchers like Heidi Allen to speak out. In the background the Resolution Foundation and the IFS provided evidence. There were cross party alliances in the commons including Frank Field and David Davis and in the Lords including Lord Lawson and Baroness Meacher. These moves all allowed IDS's resignation to have maximum impact.

The HoL speech which delivered the result came from Baroness Hollis and was ably supported by her follow up interviews on Newsnight etc.

I may be wrong but I did not see any impact from AE or OS and I did see active resistance from a lot of the PLP.

The lack of impact Frances Ryan laments is imo more to do with the active resistance from the PLP rather than JC's failure to make his case. There is little point in attending a meeting where everyone else is not listening to you because they are too busy scribbling down all the arguments and tactics they can think of to undermine.

On the need to invoke Art50 sooner rather than later I continue to disagree. Continued long term uncertainty and prevarication is the worst possible outcome for all concerned.

The speech

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-under-fire-from-tory-mp-heidi-allen-for-axeing-minister-for-refugees-role-held-by-richard-harrington_uk_5795b807e4b0796a0b5fdb91?3izbjsba23y3tbj4i
Refugee minister axed.

A bit more background on Baroness Hollis and her views on how to win the argument from the position of a minority opposition

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/house/67219/anything-retiring

"Even when she was in Government she could not win by whipping the vote, “only by argument and persuasion”. “It means that the Chamber was where it mattered; and you had to persuade the House that you knew what you were talking about, that you were sincere and well-intentioned.”"

Paddy Ashdown answers questions about the More United Project

www.libdemvoice.org/some-questions-for-more-united-51413.html

www.libdemvoice.org/paddy-ashdown-responds-to-questions-to-more-united-51424.html

Not seeing how Moreunited would be any better accepted in its efforts to influence the main parties than Momentum and the hundreds of thousands flocking to join the LP have been.

Momentum isn't called Momentum anymore - didn't you know they renamed it this week? Nope i didn't get the memo either

I fear most of those flocking well never actually be door knocking slogging activists - especially when Corbyn has 40 MP's and is no longer the official opposition

Not seeing how Moreunited would be any better accepted in its efforts to influence the main parties than Momentum and the hundreds of thousands flocking to join the LP have been.

Maybe because MoreUnited is a cross-party movement operating outside of party institutions? Momentum's problems stem from the direct conflict between its grassroots nature, and the parliamentary role and institutions of the LP

Also it will help if they don't focus on a divisive personality like Momentum is doing

No idea if it'll work, I suspect not. But their problems are quite different to Momentum's problems I think.

Thanks everyone for these wonderful threads and the links. Just wanted to repost the previously unopenable huffington post link about David Cameron screwing the young over electoral registration as I find it soooo shocking www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/how-david-cameron-plan-to-screw-labour-cost-him-the-eu-referendum_uk_5790bae5e4b0e3583c789316?edition=uk&ir=UK+Politics&section=uk_politics&utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

Very good constitutional report on what happens if (when) Labour splits

The points re debts are very interesting - they maybe throwing the baby that is the 'Labour' name at each other

constitution-unit.com/2016/06/29/what-if-labour-splits/