Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

"We are entering a very bad phase"

Mm, for me there's no other way of seeing it...

"John Redwood, the former Cabinet minister, said the UK did not vote for a "slightly beefed-up version" of David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation with the EU."

Well, I'm glad he knows what Leavers voted for.

Remember John Redwood, who said "that single mothers should be denied benefits until absent fathers had been pressed to return home to support them."

www.independent.co.uk/news/tories-clash-over-single-mothers-lilley-rejects-demand-to-axe-benefits-1482903.html

What David Willetts says in that article is interesting

"David Willetts, Tory MP for Havant, said young women were becoming mature early. He admired their courage in bringing up children alone while men were 'feckless and irresponsible'. He quoted an American academic who argues that the number of men worth marrying is shrinking. 'Increasing numbers of men are unemployed, engaged in petty crime and are possibly juvenile delinquents. Where are the men they are supposed to marry?' But, Mr Willetts added, some absent fathers would like to spend more time with their children."

Redwood - lol I used to know a few stories about him in the 90's....hhhmmm...

Whilst there may be a block of 85 they will have to tread very carefully - an election wouldn't guarantee they would be retained - nor would it guarantee Brexit. I still think they will play the long game - it is in their own interests and the membership would be furious to see the party in disarray when Labour is buggered

Thanks swedish interesting. Really hope May can keep that bloc of 85 onside.

Red I've come across that article elsewhere. Very thought-provoking and I suspect contains truths.

There have been fundamental political changes in and around Europe, the Arab nations and Middle East over the last 20 years. Now we're seeing a rise in far right and neo-facist ideology in Europe and the US. There's increasing evidence that Putin is working to destabilise neighbouring former USSR states and is of course delighted with any moves to destabilise Europe. And Brexit clearly does.

A Brexit deal needs to be acceptable to most of the population, which is a different requirement to being acceptable to most Leavers.
52% won Brexit, but not a veto on the form of Brexit.

I'm pretty sure there won't be another referendum - TM will hope to have a deal signed in say 2019 and then have the GE in 2020.

A Brexit-Lite EEA deal should be doable in the HoC , because about 450 MPs are Remainers
She'll need SNP PLP support, or at least acquiescence.
So if she stays sensible, she'll keep them in the loop and even discuss Brexit options with them.
Of course, it would be so much better if there was a Leader of the Opposition who had any interest in doing his job .....

Redwood voted for the reintroduction of capital punishment in 1988, 1990 and 1994.

He consistently voted against LGBT rights, e.g the 1994 & 1999 attempts to reduce the age of consent for homosexuality to be the same as for heterosexual acts.
He voted to keep the infamous Section 28 (which banned schools from teaching that being gay was ok and caused a lot of worry for gay teachers and gay students)
Of course he opposed equal marriage and still says it was a mistake.

bigchoc for PM

Bigchoc

You know what they say about homophobes!
www.petertatchell.net/lgbt_rights/homophobia/bigots_are_buggers.htm

Interestingly, Redwood's constituency voted Remain

www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-wokingham-mp-11521760

interestingly the DM is sounding rather enthusiastic about the Single Market with emergency break suggestion...

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3705524/Finally-EU-offers-deal-immigration-Plan-offer-Britain-seven-year-emergency-brake-UK-access-Europe-s-single-market.html

The beginning of the media campaign to reconcile the British public to a Norway minus deal?

Oh so we will be in (sshhhh) but out (sshhhh)

I've been rereading the Lisbon Treaty.
Free movement is pt 2 of Article 3
I can understand those on the right - who call the EU the EUSSR - hating the EU, because Article 3 reads like the kind of progressive manifesto I'd happily vote for.

Article 3
1. The Union’s aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples.

1. The Union shall offer its citizens an area of freedom, security and justice without internal frontiers, in which the free movement of persons is ensured in conjunction with appropriate measures with respect to external border controls, asylum, immigration and the prevention and combating of crime.

1. The Union shall establish an internal market. It shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress, and a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment. It shall promote scientific and technological advance.

It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection, equality between women and men, solidarity between generations and protection of the rights of the child.

It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States.
It shall respect its rich cultural and linguistic diversity, and shall ensure that Europe’s cultural heritage is safeguarded and enhanced.

Bigchoc - I would happily vote for that too.

And that's why the far-righters hate the EU so much.

Remember Murdoch's famous quote? "When I tell the government what to do, they do it. When I go to the EU, they ignore me".

God, I'm so pissed off about this. We have been so stupid, well, the leave voters have.

I can only hope for as Brexit-lite option as possible, or preferably no brexit at all.

And btw, kudos to you for actually reading the Lisbon Treaty itself

Liz McInnes was one of only 40 MPs who voted AGAINST the No Confidence Motion but cannot understand why JC didn't then stand down.
She now supports Owen

http://www.lizmcinnesmp.org.uk/owen2016

She says that when Tory policies have been overturned, it's been almost all due to work by Shadow Ministers - because JC is not interested in Parliament:

"After failing to get a response from him,
former shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander had to stage a sit-in outside Jeremy’s office in order to get answer from him on a question of NHS policy."

"The job description of the Leader of the Labour Party is to lead the party in Parliament
......
I could no longer serve a leader who appeared to be putting his own interests ahead of the party."
.......
with Jeremy hungrily clinging on to power, I have watched gaping holes appear in the front bench and shadow ministerial structure
......
Every day I have seen the Tory Government mocking us, laughing at our inability to oppose them.
They relish our disarray, and make no mistake about it – they are desperately hoping Jeremy stays."

Greenwood There are 358 Articles so It's taking a while !
I'm skipping the less interesting ones tbh but it is really informative

If any insomniac wants a change from counting sheep:
www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty.html#navigation

In Chalalala's earlier posting from the DM:
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3705524/Finally-EU-offers-deal-immigration-Plan-offer-Britain-seven-year-emergency-brake-UK-access-Europe-s-single-market.html

... Are they photos of refugees in an article about EU immigration? The DM really is shameless, if so.

It's the Mirror but, "Theresa May's plan to slash employment rights and cut workers' wages in poorer areas revealed" ...

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-mays-plan-slash-employment-8486233

Far more positives than negatives, imo
I particularly like the fact that the treaty's aims include "full employment" which UK Labour quietly shelved decades ago.

I would much rather that the treaty had favoured Keynes and specifically stated that there could be higher spending in troubled times - hence the need for surplus in good times.

In practice, basically sound economies were allowed higher deficits when needed - iirc Germany and France

Without the UK, I think the EU will be far less neoliberal, but the Uk on its own may become neoliberal on steroids.

The Tory party chairman said that Article 50 will be triggered by the 2020 GE

• so Brexit may be a long time coming

(do cold Tory feet pong or just sweaty kippers ?)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-2020-mcloughlinukk5794e41de4b02508de4697bb?edition=uk&utmhppref=patrick-mcloughlin

However, Farage says A50 must be triggered v early 2017 and that it would be better to leave without any deal than to stay.

Art 50 within 4 years is sounding temptingly in the direction of long grass.

In terms of our Opposition, I'm disliking Jeremy Corbyn more and more. The statement the day after the vote about invoking article 50 immediately, although he has since tried to resile from it, shows his lack of judgement. We need an effective Opposition that deals with current issues rather than raking over problems that existed ten years ago. I'm starting to think that a split Labour party would be the best option.

Stripey I detect a certain level of inconsistency in your JC viewpoint. He is indicating that he is ready to move on to the best way to implement Brexit and is recommending early invocation of Art 50, yet you would prefer him to be endlessly coming up with delaying tactics which sounds to me pretty much like raking over the past.

Lack of affordable housing, increasing levels of child poverty, food bank use, under investment in the public and private sector and lack of social cohesion are very much not the problems of 10 years ago. Attitudes to military intervention and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons are not the problems of 10 years ago.

BigChoc very interesting to read your take on the Lisbon Treaty. I started off studying the Treaty of Rome in the 80s. As a student then I had access to an Erasmus scholarship (long before Maastricht free movement). When I looked for student summer jobs in London I worked with people from all over Europe, including Poland (not even an EU member at that time) and indeed the rest of the World.

My reading of the Maastricht and Lisbon Treaties is highly sceptical. Implementation of "full" free movement has been consistently ill considered and mismanaged. Monetary integration has brought about huge imbalances between different Euro members and has created a 2 tier system with non-Euro members. Greater political union has not brought about greater democratic accountability or a more coherent policy towards External relations. In short the track record does not augur well for the positive implementation of Fiscal policy you cite from Lisbon.

Invoking A50 immediately would have been disastrous, because the 2 years would have started right then and there would have been no time to negotiate a good deal.

It would have been a national disaster, which only the maddest of Kipperati politicians - and the totally ignorant - advocated

JC obviously made that statement without bothering to find out the consequences.
Such behaviour wouldn't matter in a protest leader, but matters very much in the Leader of the Opposition and would be disastrous in a PM.

If JC wants to genuinely address issues that are harming ordinary people then he should have done his job as Leader of the Opposition instead of giving the Tories a free rein in Parliament.

I posted how even one of his 40 MP supporters has switched to Owen in despair at his total disinterest in his job:
http://www.lizmcinnesmp.org.uk/owen2016

The HoC & the HoL "have worked tirelessly and effectively with apparently little involvement from Jeremy or his office."
Incredible that his own Shadow Cabinet health minister had to stage a sit-in outside his office to bring his attention to demand an answer about the NHS.

"Jeremy is good at slogans ...... but the challenge for our party is to come up with practical policy solutions to those issues and be competent and popular enough to enact them.

"Jeremy and his team have been short of policies since he became leader. He did announce one at his campaign launch yesterday about forcing businesses to publish equal pay reports – but it later turned out this had been a pledge in our 2015 manifesto. And he refused to answer whether he would publish such a report for his own office. This isn’t good enough."

And no Labour leader in history has had mass numbers of supporters terrorising Labour colleagues who disagree with him.
" .... seems to suggest he really doesn’t understand the intimidating and threatening atmosphere his leadership is allowing to fester"

It must massively hinder Labour opposition to the Tories, being terrorised by your OWN side
Outrageous.