Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Unfortunately I try never to click through to a Mail or Express article - refuse to "award" their poison with a click. Just try to get the gist of the content from the various comments, either on here or on Facebook groups.

It's not a very secret sign if everyone knows it....do these people not think aspect through?

Neither side goes into negotiations saying what their final goal is (else they wouldn't get it). Each side goes in hard and then compromises. So if they are saying a 7 year brake is maybe possible now, leavers looking for an EEA with immigration restrictions solution will take this as a positive sign.

Right, what was a little unclear to me from the Guardian article was who would be putting this forward as a starting negotiation position. The article cited sources from both the British and EU sides, and it appears that France and some other countries are seriously reluctant

So either this is a genuine attempt at compromise from both sides, or it's a conscious "good cop bad cop" strategy from the EU - "some of us are ready to offer you this ok-ish deal, but you should be aware there are some meaner countries arguing against it, and therefore you'd be lucky to even get the deal and should really take it"

Should we be heartened there's been a nearly 2 hour break on this thread with no posts, let alone 10 pages of them? Don't want to jinx things but perhaps the dust is starting to settle for a bit whilst parliament is in recess. Fingers crossed.

Ah but the Labour party leadership campaigning has just started. I expect there will be lots of twists in that - especially after Maccy Johns appeal the the MP's today

Matthew Paris was one of the most pro EU Conservatives and straight after the vote he was on Newsnight questioning it and looking at ways to negate it. His Opinion column in The Times yesterday (behind the pay wall) was making the case for his side of the argument within his Party to accept the result and move on. Part of his case was that if there is a positive centrist solution to Brexit it will only be reached if the moderates are at the table to make their case rather than leaving it to the Right of his Party. I think the same argument could be made for the need for the Remain side of the Labour Party to accept the result and engage to secure a "Brexit success" on their terms.

I took the article as a positive sign that things are indeed moving on but I'm not really seeing any positive signs from the PLP - I am clearly under the spell of JMD's direct appeal to camera on the Andrew Marr show this morning

My DS (11) watches a fair bit of crap on YOUTUBE - and loves to come out with "illuminati confirmed' randomly during conversations. If he gets it - why can't the grown ups? I'm always a bit disturbed when I hear of adults taking this stuff seriously.

I love this thread! So much great information.

Early days of course, but it is starting to look like the Conservatives might favour a Norway-plus type deal- to include services from what Boris seems to be saying about passporting rights). I can see a case for supporting that as a compromise option - although it is definitely less than ideal in that we would lose our seat at the EU table.

Do we think that the Conservative plan is to put together a deal and then to go to the country in 2020 for a mandate to put it into action? I think there is something for us all to hate in a Norway plus deal so I'm not overly optimistic but might people be prepared to accept it.. eventually?

howabout Unfortunately Brexit is at the back of all the LP brains at the moment - hardly even mentioned at grass roots due to the fundamental split in the party

I think there is something for us all to hate in a Norway plus deal so I'm not overly optimistic but might people be prepared to accept it.. eventually?

I imagine that would depend on how the question was framed. I sincerely hope that the politicians have learnt something from this debacle, if nothing else about how to hold Referenda and being prepared for either answer to be accepted.

It would be a compromise which may well be acceptable to a lot of Remainers, if key things like passporting for financial institutions, and research grants and free movement of labour for scientific research were retained. It might be acceptable to the 'soft Leave' vote, because it would be going back to more what the EEC was like.

For the racists and those mourning the loss of the Empire and a few others, then no, it wouldn't be acceptable. But nothing would be acceptable to them.

Yes, I agree that a general election on the subject of any deal on Europe would be divisive and not particularly desirable for anyone, and the uncertainty in the meantime would be harmful.

That would mean that Theresa May will need the support of non Conservative MPs to get any deal passed by the House of Commons. She seems to be playing a smart game by involving the SNP - a deal that can show Scottish support must be more acceptable to the UK as a whole and also those extra SNP votes will count. She might need more that that though if the likes of Redwood dig their heels in, which they surely will.

Getting way ahead of myself here... so much else could happen in the meantime

medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714#.srl63775a

Someone posted this on FB.

Depressing.

t.co/Elj4CaRziP

Tory MPs react with fury as EUleaders consider UK 'emergency brake' onfree movement

Oh dear oh dear

It is of course, some Tories, e.g. John Redwood, Bill Cash, hard Leave people. But they must know that the Leave camp is not united.

Still interesting times - TM only has a working majority of 16, so plenty of scope for that to be whittled away and a rebellion in the Tory ranks won't help her.

Could someone make that link clickable for me please?

Lemurs

Sorry posting not just wrong thread- wrong site

I am of the view that the Torys will always try to hold power at the expense of principle - it is in the party's nature. Also others would see it as their duty to the nation to provide safe hands at this moment. If they rebelled there would be an election - and there is no guarantee they would retain their seats. And it is early days - some of these people have been playing the long game on the EU for 20 years - I don't think they would toss the dice now

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/24/tory-mps-react-with-fury-as-eu-leaders-consider-uk-emergency-bra/

John Redwood is on the extreme right of the Tory Party, a swivel-eyed wingnut's wingnut.
He has quite alarmingly mad eyes, like a TV serial killer
However, there is a bloc of 85 Tory MPs that will vote down any Brexit that doesn't lead to the Return of the British empire (and don't realise those countries would no longer bow the knee)

Redwood was more influential (and just as delusional) back in the 1990s - he stood for the leadership twice, but always heavily defeated, less than a quarter of MPs supported him both times iirc

I remember when he was appointed Secretary of State for Wales, as a consolation prize, it was called "the most bizarre political appointment since Caligula made his horse a Senator."

He used to mime the Welsh anthem, because he'd never bothered to learn the words.
I gather the Welsh don't miss his glorious rule.

Redwood is the "Tory MPs reacting in fury" btw