Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

I think Labour politicians are criticising Loathsome because she's one of the few topics they can agree on

Yep.

Aargh! Fraser Nelson just on the World at One saying that if we can't get all we want from the EU "the worst case scenario is WTO rules where you pay a tariff of 3 or 4 percent".

The WTO rules are the worst case scenario.

How bad a scenario they are is up for debate. But unless we leave the WTO, then thosecare the rules that will apply if we leave with no other deals in place.

And it is not the case that the EU can apply punitive tariffs and we can't reciprocate.

WTO - without slapping on extra tariffs - looks to be the only alternative to EEA
There woukd be a very painful 5-10 years while we negotiate trade agreements from scratch with the main trading blocs.

We would be competing with wages & working conditions of India & China - there are very good reasons why the EU puts up some barriers against developing countries.
I know some Brexiters complain it's cruel and also causes higher prices, but otherwise it's a race to the bottom.

The UK can't survive with us just selling Costa Coffee to each other within the UK

And I do wish politicians would stop omitting important facst - some goods like cars have much higher % tarfiffs

Doitfine I'm trying to explain: the EU would NOT be applying "punitive" tarfiffs, just the standard ones they apply to every country with whom they have no trade deal.

Davis was saying he would retaliate against the EU, i.e. "punitive" tariffs for not being a special case.
If we go to WTO rules, we are allowed to apply tariffs, but we have to apply the same tariffs to every country; in our case everyone in the world, since we have no trade agreements other than as part of the EU.
The EU has many trade agreements; we have none.
So, we need to decide what tariffs to apply, in the knowledge that every other country will apply thr same to us.

The WTO rules are the worst case scenario.

Sure, so long as you ignore a recession, a structural contraction of the UK economy, financial service revenues being a fraction of what they are now, a major impact on the service sector, years of economic uncertainty, the collapse in investment in the UK, etc etc.

To say that the only bad thing will be a few percent on imports/exports is mendacious.

Interesting opinion article in the FT today arguing that TM should not rush into anything at all, and the more time and the more time she allows herself the better.

Perhaps by 2020 we'll have a functioning opposition.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-by-election-results-best-night-in-a-decade-tim-farron-a7138646.html

Good PR by the Lib Dems but calling it the best election night in a decade after winning 4 council seats, is either stretching the truth or a sign of how badly they have done in recent year.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Friday that the government would not trigger Article 50, the formal trigger of divorce talks with the European Union, until a "UK approach" had been agreed.

Errr... so if Scotland and NI keep going 'No fucking chance, I'm not agreeing to that', then they will keep to that and not impose Brexit on them???

The UK can't survive with us just selling Costa Coffee to each other within the UK

That reminds me of the cutting comment that the UK in allowing its manufacturing base to fade away and replacing it largely with services was turning into an economy based on "people opening doors for each other".

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 2m2 minutes ago

PM @theresa_may after Bute House meeting: "excellent and constructive meeting with Nicola Sturgeon... "

"I want @scotgov fully involved - important we establish [UK approach and negotiation objectives] before we trigger Article 50"

@theresa_may after meeting @NicolaSturgeon "I won't be triggering Article 50 until we have a UK approach & objectives for negotiations"

But David Davies is pushing this morning for this before the end of the year / start of 2017.

Very different messages going out there.

unicorns - 2020 is looking a little optimistic at the moment.

red Farron is proving fairly good at grabbing a bit of attention and a good headline where he can.

I suspect TM will come back from Scotland thinking that it was easier to fight the courts to deport people than to win an argument against NS.

isn't one of the problems with the WTO option that it would pretty much destroy British manufacturing overnight?

"British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Friday that the government would not trigger Article 50, the formal trigger of divorce talks with the European Union, until a "UK approach" had been agreed.

Errr... so if Scotland and NI keep going 'No fucking chance, I'm not agreeing to that', then they will keep to that and not impose Brexit on them???"

Hope so, seems reasonable to me (doubt it though in reality)

Thanks for the new thread Red - much appreciated.

Like many other posters, my thoughts are with all those affected by the events last night in Nice.

liberte, egalite, fraternity

Bathroom I wouldn't like to be on the opposite side of a negotiation with Nicola Sturgeon. Whether you agree with her politics or not (some I do, some I don't) she's extremely intelligent and a very sharp political operator.

Errr... so if Scotland and NI keep going 'No fucking chance, I'm not agreeing to that', then they will keep to that and not impose Brexit on them???

Interesting.

Her trip to Scotland on her 2nd day hints that maybe she is counting on that as a brake.

I wonder...

NI will be different.

I wonder when she'll come here to listen to Arlene support a ruinous Brexit while Martin says no chance?

Probably not high on her To Do list

Also regarding NS...while everyone else in the political class was flapping around like a bunch of headless chickens in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, she was one of the very few politicians to show any leadership.

Doinit - I am largely clueless on NI politics, and tend to shy away from it, because I know there are layers upon layers of the past which influence everything happening now, but is there any chance of NI coming up with a coherent position which it can then present to TM with a majority of politicians backing it?

flippin oh yes, Nicola certainly stepped into the glaring void Westminster left in the weekend following the vote.

while everyone else in the political class was flapping around like a bunch of headless chickens in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, she was one of the very few politicians to show any leadership.

Quite, and I don't think it went unnoticed either.

I really can't see how Scotland can be allowed to stay in the EU without the rest of the UK.

Just imagine, Cameron's silly nonsense breaks up the UK, breaks up the EU and even it's not beyond the bounds of possibility causes Catalonia to split from Spain.

If, and it's a big if, May does put some investment into the regions and curbs the worst excesses of things like zero hours contracts, then I think she just might get away with Brexit not meaning Brexit after all.

isn't one of the problems with the WTO option that it would pretty much destroy British manufacturing overnight?

No.

It would destroy British car manufacturing.

And might be very damaging for services.

Jury's out on manufacturing as a whole.

What's the opposite of unicorns? Because some people are just as intent on seeing them everywhere.

Minotaurs?

Even if you think leaving the EU is a stupud idea, it is not very likely that our entire manufacturing industry (paltry as it is) would be destroyed immediately if we went onto WTO tariffs in a couple of years time.

Some sectors might even prosper.

People talk as if a trade war is inevitable if we leave the EU, rather than being highly unlikely.

The unionist part of her opening speech, made me sit up. A lot.

Her going to Scotland on her second day?

I think it possibly the cornerstone of whatever she ever is going to do. Also remember, she'd just got back from seeing the Queen and I don't think there is a cat in hells chance the prospect of the breaking of the Union is something that the Queen supports, regardless of her thoughts over sovereignty and Europe.

Remember her tartan suit when she announced going for the leadership too.

There is a theme going on here, if you ask me.

Sorry to sound like a drama queen but I feel so heartsore with everything that's going on at the moment with all this awful stuff happening.

There's a very poignant, heartbreaking image from the Nice Attack doing the rounds right now. That picture says more than words ever could.

Is that Scotland being consulted the same as when you have a "consultation" period before being made redundant...it doesn't mean you get to decide whether or not you are made redundant..you just get told.