Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

[DoinItFine]

Thanks for on the ground updates, Showme :)

Liam Fox getting cribnotes on CETA from Canadian minister.

Is this our plan?

Hiring 300 odd trade negotiators is going to be fun.

[Motheroffourdragons]

Thank you, Red for the new thread.
Awful situation in Nice.
One Art - thank you for explaining, I think it was me who asked the question about changing from Labour to Tory. I agree with the sentiments of your mother atm, but I don't think I could switch that radically. Although from the political compass website, there doesn't appear to be too much difference between labour and tory. I think that is the basis of the problem, if I am honest.
The whole world is an actual disaster.

[DoinItFine]

If the past 6 years haven't taught you the difference between Labour and Tory, and the past 18 months haven't shown you what the Tories will do to people without the LibDems holding them back, then you can't have been paying much attention.

Has May pissed off too many of the Big Beasts who are now her backbenchers?

She doesn't have much of a majority to play with.

[Peregrina]

In normal times, I would look forward to the Tories losing their majority in a series of by-elections, but these are not normal times.

[Motheroffourdragons]

Oh I'm quite aware Doin

[Vistaverde]

The news coming out of Nice is terrible. Luckily I managed to miss the most gruesome coverage on Twitter but the videos of people and their kids literally running for their lives is horrible.

[flippinada]

Yes the reports are very disturbing, it's just terrible. Families out enjoying the celebrations and then this happens :(.

[OlennasWimple]

Doin - that makes sense re TV

Re Labour / Tory support: I agree with Peregrina and pp's mum! I'm a natural liberal who used to be happy to vote labour for tactical advantage (i.e. Keeping out the Tories), but if a GE was called any time soon I would rather spoil my paper than use it for Labour.

Maybe I'm getting old and naturally swinging to the right, maybe I'm just a Blairite champagne socialist after all. I just can't support a party that systematically shuts down internal debate, that refuses to outright condemn abuse against those who do voice concern, that fails to address misogyny and anti-semitism and that looked the other way while things like the organized child abuse in Rotheram and Trojan Horse in Birmingham were going on under their noses (and with their knowledge)

[RedToothBrush]

Today is Jo Cox's funeral.
This is a sign on the route the cortege is due to take today.

I think it says it all. I hope there are many signs like that everywhere today, even if they are just mental signs.

[Vistaverde]

It's even more poignant that it is Jo Cox's funeral today.

[Chalalala]

Btw Show you are not wrong about the thread that always pop up after these horrific terrorist attacks.

Yes, I have to stay away from the islamophobic hand-wringing because it makes me want to throw my computer out of the window

French muslims are also the victims here

[flippinada]

Yes, it's well underway on the thread linked to above. I'm steering clear.

I agree about the added poignancy to Jo Cox's funeral. Thank you for the lovely picture Red. She will be on my mind today.

[flippinada]

One of my friends who is Nicoise posted a picture which I'll happily upload if anyone wants to use it on social media - I've checked and she's happy for me to share.

It says 'Sieu Nissa' which means 'I am Nice' in Nicoise French.

[TheBathroomSink]

twitter.com/dhothersall/status/753877793407135744
I was disappointed to have to cancel our CLP meeting, but complied with the rules. Jeremy couldn't even manage that.

notes of meeting to deselect AE, which Corbyn called into, against NEC rules, in pic

[TheBathroomSink]

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 7m7 minutes ago
Staggering. Meeting held in Eagle's constituency over deselection. But under rules can' the held. So they go to pub. And Corbyn phones in.

[derxa]

It's hard to discuss the minutiae of British politics on another horrible day in France.

[Chalalala]

thanks flippinada, I've given up with the social media thing after attacks though - it's become a depressing ritual that only highlights how powerless I feel :(

[flippinada]

I can understand that completely Chalala

[RedToothBrush]

Friday Morning Roundup

LABOUR:
Cardiff Central MP Jo Stevens, one of Jeremy Corbyn’s most loyal backers, has switched allegiance and called on party members to back rival leadership candidate Owen Smith.

In an email to Labour members, Stevens wrote: “During the past two weeks it has become painfully obvious that we have been unable to fulfil the very basic day to day operation as the official opposition in Parliament. We cannot present ourselves as a government in waiting without leadership and a leadership team that commands the respect and support of not only members....but Labour voters and potential Labour voters.”

She added: “I want to let you know I will be supporting Owen Smith.”

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/news/77294/jamie-reed-i-would-not-stand-under-jeremy-corbyns
Labour MP James Reed says he will not stand under a Corbyn manifesto in 2020

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/middle-class-university-graduates-will-decide-future-labour-party
Interesting article which gets to the heart of 'The Kipper Problem'
By our reckoning, Labour’s leadership contest is going to be decided, for the most part, by less than 400,000 mainly middle-class university graduates. Nearly half of these members – unlike many of Labour’s voters – live in London and the South of England. Some 75 per cent of Labour members are ABC1 voters, and 57 per cent of them have a degree. Around 15 per cent live in London and 32 per cent live in other parts of the South of England. Only 28 per cent live in the party’s northern heartlands and 20 per cent in Wales and the Midlands, where (think, Nuneaton) any party wanting to win a general election desperately needs to win over voters.

Because a relatively large proportion of those who joined the party after the general election were women, the Labour membership has become a little more gender balanced, with a 55:45 male/female split. The average age, however, hasn’t changed much: it’s still 51.

The irony is that, Corbyn doesn't necessarily get away from much of this demograph either.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base?CMP=share_btn_tw
More on Labour suggesting its death.

Owen Smith has postponed the launch of his campaign due to the attacks in Nice.

CONSERVATIVES
Cabinet Reshuffle stuff:
The Guardian report:
Theresa May’s Cabinet has the lowest proportion of privately-educated ministers in more than 70 years, according to a study by the Sutton Trust.

70% of the new PM’s cabinet were state-educated - 44% at comprehensive schools and 26% at grammar schools. At 30%, the proportion of independently-schooled ministers is at its lowest since the government of Labour’s Clement Attlee in 1945 with 25%.

But of the 27 members or attendees at the top table, 44%, including May herself, went to Oxford or Cambridge (with the exception of Gordon Brown, every prime minister since 1937 who attended university went to Oxford).

www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/theresa-mays-cabinet-is-more-gender-balanced-than-you-think/

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/who-is-real-theresa-may-prime-ministers-first-cabinet?CMP=twt_gu

Discontent in the ranks already according to The Times<
Friends of his [Osborne's] are furious that a briefing emerged that he was sacked minutes after Mr Hammond's appointment and that he was not given the chance to present it as a resignation. "If that is how Mrs May wants to stamp her authority then so be it. She has every right to pick her own football team. But she has a majority of 12 and no room to make enemies. The shabby way they have been treated suggest she's already made a few", one said.

Picking up on this theme, Sadiq Khan talks about the Big Transport decision to be made for London
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has urged Theresa May to back a second runway at Gatwick. He said the airport was “the only show in town” and would bring substantial economic benefits to the capital.

Khan warned that pressing ahead with a third runway at Heathrow would mean years of legal challenges, splits in the Conservative party and political turmoil in London

May is in Scotland today.
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/theresa-mays-impossible-scotland-test/
The Spectator are calling it May's impossible test.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell has made some media appearances this morning, during which he insisted there is “no mood” in Scotland for a second independence referendum. He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme:

What people in Scotland don’t want is this toxic and divisive issue of a second Scottish independence referendum being put on the table and blurring the issues around the EU negotiations.

People in Scotland are in no mood for a second independence referendum and business in particular in Scotland isn’t in a mood to have the issue of Scottish independence blurring the very, very important negotiations to get Scotland the best possible deal from the EU negotiations.

Whether that is true remains to be seen.

The Guardian are reporting the following:
Oliver Letwin, the former chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster who was sacked as part of May’s cabinet reshuffle has suggested the UK does not have its own trade negotiators because they are all working for the European Union.

He was then asked again exactly how many, to which he responded:
Quite a number... but they are employed there and it’s up to them obviously whether they are recruited into Whitehall. There are obviously very experienced trade negotiators elsewhere in the world as well.

Letwin was then asked if the UK has in fact got any of its own trade negotiators.

No, no. We don’t have trade negotiators because the trade negotiation has been going on in the EU so we are going to have to hire a whole - David Davis is going to have to hire - group to deal with the EU negotiations and Liam Fox of course in what I think is an excellent plan of Theresa’s to create a new Department of International Trade.

Meanwhile David Davis has said Britain will be in a position to trigger Article 50 “before or by the start of next year”.

Writing in The Sun, he said:
I expect the new Prime Minister to trigger a round of global trade deals with all our most favoured partners - and the negotiation of most within between 12 and 24 months.

Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.

Deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU - and of course, we will also be seeking deals with many others.

This will provide massive markets for our exports and cut costs for our manufacturing industries.

As Tom Brake says on twitter this morning:
Tom Brake MP ‏@thomasbrake
Oliver Letwin confirms UK has no trade negotiators at all. UK plc not well placed to renegotiate those trade deals with 55 countries then.

Best get hiring then Mr Davies.

[Chalalala]

I expect the new Prime Minister to trigger a round of global trade deals with all our most favoured partners - and the negotiation of most within between 12 and 24 months.

Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.

It was my understanding that the UK was not allowed to start any formal trade negotiations with non-EU countries as long as it was still part of the EU?

[derxa]

I see the old boy network are creating a poisonous cabal already.
Thanks Red for the info.

[BigChocFrenzy]

84 dead, including at least 10 children.
A spokesperson from the Lenval paediatric hospital has told Reuters news agency that “many” children were undergoing serious operations there.

Apart from the utter horror, anither aspext:
we need to remember that France is very preoccupied because of repeated terror attacks and has been for a long time.
Germany, their close ally in the EU, is concentrating on supporting them, as are all the other EU "BIg Beasts"
The EU isn't in a mood to divert much time and diplomatic resources to the self-made problems of the UK.
Living in Germany, I can say that even before this, most people here were just irritated by the self-indulgence of the Brexit vote and regard the UK as a nuisance when there are far more important issues. Basically saying to the UK "get on with it and bugger off if you want"

Delusional to think anyone has the time to redesign the single market etc to fit the UK.

[Chalalala]

In the meantime, another poll showing that Brexit is reinforcing pro-European sentiments in Europe. People in all 6 polled countries more in favour of EU membership, more in favour of the EU, more in favour of deeper political integration within the Eurozone (even the Poles, apparently 70% in favour, which is a surprise)

www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2016/07/15/le-brexit-provoque-un-regain-du-sentiment-europeen_4969720_3214.html

Also harsh attitudes towards Britain. Majority of Germans and French think the UK should not be given any special status outside of the EU. Only the Poles hoping for some concessions to Britain.

[Chalalala]

meant to read *more in favour of the euro... duh

[BigChocFrenzy]

I think the UK can negotiate with non-EU countries, just not formally with EU ones.
Of course, any trade treaty negotiated couldn't come into force until the UK has formally left the EU, i.e. at least 2 years after invoking A50.

However, trade negotiations usually take 5-10 years, unless the UK plans to just give other countries all they demand, right away.