Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

[DoinItFine]

Crabb turned down Health?

Wow.

Where did you hear that?

Very different from bits and pieces I've heard. But none of it gas really added up so far.

[SwedishEdith]

Taks Red

News from Nice sounds bad.

I can't believe that TeamTM didn't ask loathsome if there were any more damaging comments that didn't get reported, very basic oversight if they did

Loathsome probably would't think they were damaging comments.

[SwedishEdith]

Taks = Thanks!

[TheBathroomSink]

@samcoatestimes:
Andrea Leadsom on childcare. From our p1. A source close to her said later she used to have a male nanny. t.co/ecH4EKvtfb

I don't know if the link will work but anyway.

[LineyReborn]

Awful news from Nice. I hope to God that Johnson either shuts up or says something decent.

[TheBathroomSink]

Swedish no, I'm sure she doesn't. I don't think she can expect to lose the Loathsome tag any time soon.

[squoosh]

Poor France, they just don't get any let up. Awful.

[Peregrina]

I can't see David Davis's plans for Brexit going anywhere - out by 2018, with a Canadian style trade deal. A deal which has been seven years in the making and isn't ratified yet.

[OneArt]

Place marking

[RedToothBrush]

Some local by election results are just coming in:
Tonight's council by-elections: Previously held - four Labour, three free-for-all, one Conservative, one Plaid and one UKIP.

Gwynedd (Marchog) result:
IND: 65.3% (+65.3), 211 votes
LAB: 34.7% (+10.6), 112 votes

Selby (Byram & Brotherton) result:
CON: 44.3% (+11.8), 251 votes
LAB: 39.6% (-4.4), 224
YF: 16.1% (+16.1), 91

Islington (Barnsbury) result:
LAB: 51.6% (-4.1)
LDEM: 17.7% (+7.1)
CON: 15.9% (-2.9)
GRN: 13.1% (+0.7)
IND: 1.7% (+1.7)

Gwynedd (Y Felinheli) result:
PC: 92.6%
CON: 7.4%
PC previously elected unopposed.

Astley (North Norfolk) result:
LDEM: 40.8% (+40.8)
CON: 25.3% (-30.7)
UKIP: 17.0% (+17.0)
GRN: 10.4% (-15.9)
LAB: 6.5% (-11.3)

Newquay Treviglas (Cornwall) result:
LDEM: 57.8% (+32.9)
CON: 25.0% (-2.1)
LAB: 10.3% (-7.4)
IND: 6.9% (+6.9)
UKIP didn't stand.

Trowbridge Grove (Wiltshire) result:
LDEM: 45.9% (+45.9)
CON: 21.4% (+6.9)
UKIP: 13.4% (+13.4)
LAB: 8.4% (+8.4)
IND: 8.1% (+8.1)
GRN: 2.9%

Newham (Forest Gate North) result:
LAB: 52.5% (-5.0)
GRN: 31.1% (+17.2)
CON: 13.8% (+0.2)
LDEM: 2.6% (-2.5)

Wibsey (Bradford) result:
LAB: 50.7% (+8.9)
UKIP: 27.5% (-11.1)
CON: 18.9% (+4.7)
LDEM: 2.9% (-2.5)

A mixed bag but the swings are perhaps the interesting bit rather than the results.

[BigChocFrenzy]

 VERY Interesting 2014 Spectator profile of TM, many insights
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2014/11/theresa-may-a-big-beast-in-kitten-heels/

Also helps explain her clearout of Cameron's rich boy squad:

“She doesn’t rate Cameron any more. She did, but not any more. 
There was a time early on when she would want to please David, but slowly she has seen just how incompetent that operation is. 
How the PM will say he will do one thing, only to be drawn in another direction. 
She’s given up on him.”

[TheBathroomSink]

That Islington result is interesting, red.

[LineyReborn]

Red the big upwards Lib Dem swings are in their traditional grounds. So maybe they are clawing things back.

[HemanOrSheRa]

I find that Newquay result very interesting.

[RedToothBrush]

North Norfolk is Norman Lamb's next of the woods. It looks like they must not have stood a candidate in that seat previously.

Yes I noticed Islington - Corbyn's stomping ground.

Newquay is HUGE even without any Kipper candidate.

[TheBathroomSink]

Newquay is traditional lib dems territory though, isn't it? The west country has often been their homeland in general elections, I admit I don't know so much about the council history.

Does ukip not standing indicate that on a local level at least they think their job is done?

[SwedishEdith]

The Bradford one is interesting - concerted move away from UKIP?

[RedToothBrush]

Oh YF is Yorkshire First. Which is troubling.

[Peregrina]

The west country has often been their homeland in general elections, I admit I don't know so much about the council history.

In my area in Oxfordshire, the LibDems have in the past cleared out the Tories completely from some local councils, and then make an assault on the Parliamentary seat. Therefore, I think if they are to make a revival there would need to be a good showing in local elections.

[Peregrina]

I should have added, it is an area where Labour comes nowhere.
I wonder how many more by-elections we will need before we draw inferences, but potentially the Tory vote could peel off in two directions - moderates to LD and extreme right to UKIP.

[BigChocFrenzy]

TM will probably get the usual honeymoon period for a new PM, for at least a few months.
Hence higher poll ratings and local byelection results once thisntakes effect.

[BigChocFrenzy]

The New Statesman thinks this is just a temporary lull before the Chancellor has to make tough decisions to tackle the worsening economic situation:

"sooner or later, Hammond is going to have to inflict some pain"

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/philip-hammond-has-only-postponed-punishment-budget**

[BigChocFrenzy]

Interesting NS discussion suggesting women fare less well in Labour leadership elections:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/labour-ready-elect-woman-leader-evidence-suggests-not
They note how Diane Abbott only received a tiny % vote when she stood during her turn as the hard let candidate. JC isn't that much better.

Is this related at all to the disgraceful harassment & threats against Labour women atm ?
Do Labour women have a general problem because of Labour men ?

Tory members & supporters have often made sexist remarks, but afaik have never done anything remotely like this sexist abuse towards the women in their own party

[venusinscorpio]

Marking place. Awful about Nice.

[BoreOfWhabylon]

Can't. Keep. Up