Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

My MP, a Tory Remainer, sent me an email that looked like it was copied from a legal document about EU law, and it was hard to understand. But he did also say 'as the Govt looks at the detailed arrangements for leaving the EU, Parliament will clearly have a role in that in making sure that we find the best way forward.' A bit different from a previous email where he said 'Parliamentary approval is not required to invoke Article 50.' It's uncharted waters; nobody knows how to go about this. The people can influence it though.

Peregrina - the précis of that article is that Gove was in May's office for less than two minutes to be sacked. She was clear he isn't seen as trustworthy so had to go to the backbenches. He left in a cab

Thanks Olennas. Why can't I find it in me to shed any tears for Gove?

Apt quote: "When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die"

I agree with Thegirlinthefireplace, it's national suicide but they don't have the guts to go against what they perceive to be the will of the people.

That's the problem. It would also potential be national suicide TO go against the will of the people.

It would also potential be national suicide TO go against the will of the people.
But they are still going to go against the will of more than 16 million people, who have now been told that their opinion doesn't count for anything. If the vote had been less tight, I would have agreed.

It's possible that they could negotiate some form of EEA agreement, which would satisfy the Remainers well enough, and then tell the electorate that a settlement has been negotiated, put up with it. It wouldn't be what the Leave side voted for, but since this was never defined adequately, it would be hard to say that it wasn't what was desired.

Peregrinations really? Strike a deal that flouts the majority intent to appease the minority?

Strike a deal that flouts the majority intent to appease the minority?

But could that truthfully be said? Boris Johnson and Daniel Hannan both made it clear within a few days of the result that an EEA type agreement was their preferred option. Does anyone know how many of the Leave camp were in agreement with them?

Yes, quite, Peregrina. The voting card simply said Leave or Remain: we might hazard a few guesses about what kind of Leave most Leavers wanted, but governments certainly shouldn't be basing policy on those guesses.

But could that truthfully be said? Boris Johnson and Daniel Hannan both made it clear within a few days of the result that an EEA type agreement was their preferred option. Does anyone know how many of the Leave camp were in agreement with them?

I've seen estimates that perhaps 10-15% (not sure if this means of leave voters or of the total electorate?) would actively prefer an EEA solution ie they were voting against EU membership not against migration.

The UK ending up in the EEA is the obvious "fudge" solution, but it has its own difficulties: it's still subject to many of the same legal and political uncertainties, and it won't be popular. By definition, it's not what the 48% wanted and it would probably be unacceptable to all but a relatively small minority if leavers.

Unfortunately, when you run a campaign that promises fairies and unicorrns, you risk people being disappointed when what they actually get is the "three brexiteers" bickering over who gets to mount a mangy donkey.

My MP is a Tory Remainer in an area which voted very narrowly to leave. He replied to my letter in a non personal way (I understand he would have been contacted by a lot of people) but I was reasonably impressed by the content of his reply. Obviously it didn't include any certainties, as they're aren't any yet, but he seemed to understand the main issues.

Red if you do ever decide to stand for a political party let us know. I'd vote for you!

I'm going to put my foot right in it this morning with a few thoughts....

1. There wasn't a Greenland agreement/model UNTIL there was a Greenland agreement. Same with the other agreements/models. They forged a new agreement with the EU based on what worked best for both. There is no reason to think that the UK couldn't do the same thing to some extent. Yes, there are problems, but why should we have to follow other models? Who says we can't make our own agreement that is tailored to UK/EU benefit? I am going to try and remain positive. At the moment, they're are doing the equivalent of a pissing contest and measuring themselves to see who's longest and strongest. I suspect once we get down to brass tacks, the discussions will be quite different than the public posturing we are seeing now.

1. Tim Farron is starting to remind me of Angela Eagle now. "I'm going to start a new party.... maybe ... yes, I'm still thinking about it... in the meantime, I'm going to heckle everyone else, but yes, I'm thinking of starting a new party..." Yep. Either do it or shut up, please.

As I've said before, I didn't vote Leave, so I'm not what some would accuse as "eternally optimistic that everything will all work out somehow because sunshine/rainbows/blah blah". But I think there is reason to at least remain positive that a reasonable agreement could be sorted to our mutual benefit.

Good posts, GingerIvy and tiggytape. I'm a Remainer but I'm also an optimist. I like your positivity and I agree that the central swathe mustn't be forgotten.

Almost all Remainers would prefer a soft landing Brexit to a hardcore Year Zero WTO
Voter analysis suggests up to ⅓ of the vote was sovereignty / Magna Carta / making more of our own laws.

The Comres poll I posted upthread found

• 66% think that priority #1 is maintaining access to the single market
• 31% think #1 is restricting freedom of movement (31%).

So, there looks to be a majority who would settle for an EEA solution - the referendum was a choice of Remain vs Brexit of all types, not Remain vs Hard Brexit

The serious issue with EEA is that it it is only a single market for trade not for services - and about 80% of UK exports are services
So, very hard negotiating required to enable Financial Passporting to retain the City of London as the pre-eiminent financial centre - and 10% of our GDP

That's voter analysis of Leave with ⅓ motivated mainly by sovereignty, not immigration

I think we're more likely to be able to negotiate a deal (that satisfies more people) if we stay within the EU, than if we leave.

ICM poll
The 1st since TM became PM, so would expect a "new leader" bounce
CON 39%
LAB 29%
LDEM 9%
UKIP 14%
GRN 4%

A control question, asking how people would vote if TM & JC were still party leaders at the GE:
CON 43%
LAB 28%

The Labour challengers are all unknowns, so fairly meaningless to poll about them unless / until they replace JC.

I suspect he will stay and ride Labour down into a black hole - unless Brexit really bites

Forecast for 2017 is for the economy to shrink. And that's when we're still in the EU
I can understand why JC & Momentum are hanging on: there is actually a significant chance of an unfinished WTO Brexit and a total economic meltdown - in which case any non-Tory party could get in.

TM must be tempted to go for a GE before the effects bite, so she has the longest possible chance to repair some things before facing poorer & angry post-Brexit voters

Voting to just ignore the referendum NOW would not be acceptable to the country, including many Remainers.

BUT when the 3 Brexiteers report back later on the deal they think they have - or that they can't get a deal, then the situation may be very different politically.
Very few people voted "Brexit even if wrecks the country for a generation"
It is only at that stage, with hard evidence from some Brexit leaders, that there would be sufficient political will to roll back from hard Brexit, or even from any Brexit.

Looks like TM intends to delay A50 as long as poss, so that the possibilites are clearer.

However, she may not be able to do so for long enough for Davis to understand how international trade deals are built in rl, or even how the UK economy works.

We've all agreed that hoping to revoke A50 later is a risky last-ditch emergency action.
However, the EU makes highly political decisions all the time and the legal position on A50 gives flexibility to do this, when the alternative is sufficiently dreadful for all parties - they want a healthy UK to trade with, not a basket case that can't trade with them.

TM must be tempted to go for a GE

I think that might be Labour's only chance. Lose badly, get rid of Corbyn, rebuild for the next election. And we'd only have an extra year or two of the Tories, not five. Sadly, I also think Corbyn would still try to cling on.

Almost all Remainers would prefer a soft landing Brexit to a hardcore Year Zero WTO

I'm sure that's true. But they would, presumably, prefer to remain if given the choice. The point is that EEA is not their preferred option (in most cases).

^+ 66% think that priority #1 is maintaining access to the single market

• 31% think #1 is restricting freedom of movement (31%).^

I assume this is all voters not leave voters only? In which case, restricting FoM was the priority for two thirds of leave voters?

My point isn't about what's politically possible (EEA may be our best bet) but about the fact that an EEA solution is the preferred option of only a small minority of voters - perhaps a third of leave voters, or 15-20% of the electorate (not of the population - many people weren't asked, notably the many young people who will reach voting age before brexit happens).

I don't really buy the idea that many remainers were in favour of EEA membership; this was explicitly being promoted by parts of the leave campaign, and anyone with the political sophistication to understand the differences between EU and EEA membership was surely astute enough to have EEA pegged as the most likely outcome of a narrow leave vote.

I'm a remainer (hardcore if you like) but in the current context I would settle for EEA if Brexit has to go ahead. Leaving the single market would be unthinkable to me. I would strongly prefer to stay in the EU, of course, but have now come to accept that that probably won't happen. I suspect most remain voters feel the same, at least, those I've talked to do.

Yes tiggytape, I wasn't saying that either in or out were possible or preferable, just that once the details of a leave deal is known, that levels of satisfaction might be greater if we stay in, than if we leave. Sorry if I wasn't clear!