Does anyone else find themselves getting more sympathetic to the other side

[whydidhesaythat]

I don't know if this is just another stage in the cycle of grief but I'm starting to feel that:

Those of us who were doing very nicely out of Europe thank you ignored those who didn't

EU money can go into buildings but that's not the same thing as helping people

People outside the urban centres felt the EU was just another siphon of power away from them

London patronises the regions

Not everyone got to go on a gap year to a European country so why should they be bothered about my kids having one?

There actually is a non racist anti immigration argument

I'm not saying any of this right, it may just be another reaction....but does anyone else find themselves empathising with the other side more than they did?

Manon ok, yes, I see what you mean now. I guess it comes down to the old single market vs free movement thing again. And to me, personally that would not make sense as a brexit solution, not because I specifically disagree with the movement of labour/people concept, just because the financial benefits of remaining in the market would be cancelled out by the cost of accepting free movement. So yes, I agree, that is an undesirable result and if that were going to be the eventual outcome, then I myself would switch sides and campaign for another referendum, because there is no point whatsoever in having all of the pain and none of the gain.

So we can agree on that front.

The only negotiable solution for brexit in my eyes is one that allows access to the single market without free movement.

Of course, as I understand it, not retaining access to the single market does not prevent us from trading with members within it and our membership of the WTO prevents us from being unfairly punished with unreasonable tariffs over and above another WTO member? So our exit from the market itself is not necessarily the doom and gloom its presented as.

I doubt many remain voters give a flying fuck about the EU tbh, they voted remain because they like what they know & haven't got any imagination, plus they thought remain would win & they like to be on the winning side ( a bit like Manchester United supporters who live nowhere near Manchester ) they like 'power'. so their anger isn't about the EU, it's about being turned over by a bunch of thick idiots.

Manon, I wasnt intending that to be derogatory, I just felt you appeared to have a working knowledge (it was meant as a compliment)

they voted remain because they like what they know & haven't got any imagination,

What rubbish. We quite like having a stable economy, being in a political union (which harbours peace) with our neighbours, being in the single market, free movement of people, being an EU citizen, London being the finance capital etc.

The EU just isn't the baddie here, IMO. Nigel Farage and his mates are.

Surfer, I think thats unfair, As much as I am pro brexit, I do not believe all remainers didnt do their research anymore than I believe the same was true in reverse.

"doubt many remain voters give a flying fuck about the EU tbh, they voted remain because they like what they know & haven't got any imagination"

Well, coming from the person who openly admits that she has no idea what's going to happen post Brexit, but is walking on air because she knows it'll be wonderful because she "trusts our leaders", that is, as they say, a bit rich!

the right of veto for admissions - as it currently stands - is set out here theconversation.com/fact-check-would-the-uk-have-a-veto-on-turkey-joining-the-eu-59844

However in politics one sometimes gives up a right in exchange for concessions elsewhere so whether the UK would use a veto is another matter. Also whether the veto will still exist in 20 years is another question as the EU has form for changing the rules.

I'm not keeping up with these threads but nothing has changed my view that most decisions made about the referendum were made by people who hadn't thought through the issues. But that applies just as much to those who voted to stay as to those who voted to leave. Ask those who voted remain if they have read the 5 presidents report (or have even heard of it) or ask what the EU is doing to deal with global warming, one of the main issues likely to face the young. Ask what they thought about the criticism of the Treasury's forecasts of economic doom and see if they had read any of it. Ask about how the procedure for leaving the EU is changing and see if they even knew it is changing. But of course only leave voters were ill informed.

The only negotiable solution for brexit in my eyes is one that allows access to the single market without free movement.

I cannot see how this will ever happen - the EU will never agree to granting us all the economic benefits of being in the EU and then allow us to keep it all for ourselves. The whole point in being in the union is to help and support each other - not just selfishly grab the bit that improves our lives and economy.

I know there is the argument that we should help ourselves before helping others - damn that overseas aid budget!! - but I am currently not seeing any concrete plans coming from the Government as to how were going to do this...

And to return to the 'sovereignty' argument - as much as I dislike Tony Blair, I watched an interesting interview with him a day or two after the referendum result where he said that in his decade or so as PM, he had never been overruled by the EU on any UK laws... we are independent, we are a sovereign nation - I simply don't know what people mean when they use this argument!

I agree Stop, I dont see it happening either, hence my point about our membership of the WTO and the protection it offers us to enable the continuation of fair trade with other members witihin the EU. I am merely saying, that if May is 'negotiating' some kind of 'brexit lite' deal, those are the only terms I would be satisfied with as a leave voter. Hope that makes sense?

The EU cannot let us out of the free market without seriously damaging their economies. Switzerland no longer has freedom of movement, but still has free market access.
We are the second largest EU economy, they can make special rules for us.

it was the very disappointing result of Cameron's talks with the EU which sealed my 'Leave' vote.

Me too, Cancelly. No point in using reasoned discussion with some of these loud 'Remain' posters though - they just keep banging the same drum and don't engage.

Switzerland no longer has freedom of movement, but still has free market access.

Switzerland has free movement doesn't it?

Yes Greenwood it does have free movement, but they seem to want out of that arrangement... As usual, the man from brussels, he say no.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

Switzerland no longer has freedom of movement, but still has free market access.

Switzerland had a Referendum to limit immigration and has been trying to negotiate on this issue for the past 4 years, without success so far.

Carol it's just that kind of arrogance that will make the rest of the world so keen to engage with us - on our terms, naturally.

Motes, beams, pots, kettles...

Cross post. We could add that Switzerland is in a better position than we are in that they are more self-sufficient in food, and also have an extremely wealthy pharmaceutical industry.

We are the second largest EU economy, they can make special rules for us.

Not according to Game Theory they won't. Let's hope they don't know about it

And we're no longer the second, France has overtaken us. Since the vote.

summer I didn't take your comment as derogatory

The only negotiable solution for brexit in my eyes is one that allows access to the single market without free movement

Unfortunately this doesn't exist. There is no single market access without free movement it's based on the principles of free movement of goods, services, capital, people. And if May seeks to restrict FOM our single market access will also be restricted.

Of course, as I understand it, not retaining access to the single market does not prevent us from trading with members within it and our membership of the WTO prevents us from being unfairly punished with unreasonable tariffs over and above another WTO member? So our exit from the market itself is not necessarily the doom and gloom its presented as

Our membership of the WTO is under the auspices of the EU, so we would have to detach from the EU and renegotiate the terms our entire trade portfolio with the WTO as a single non-EU country. We would have to negotiate trade deals with the entire world. Bearing in mind Canada's world trade deal took 7 years, we are looking at nearly a decade of economic uncertainty. Not to mention the fact that we have no existing corps of trade negotiators.

Moving off EU tariffs onto WTO tariffs would add around £9billion in import costs and around £5.5billion on exports paid at the destination country, until we have negotiated preferential trade deals.

So essentially, that model is economic suicide, which is why Brexiteers in the main favour the EEA/EFTA model.

So yes, I agree, that is an undesirable result and if that were going to be the eventual outcome, then I myself would switch sides and campaign for another referendum, because there is no point whatsoever in having all of the pain and none of the gain

This I find interesting because I believe that if the terms of the referendum had set out a choice as it stands - between our current member status OR an EEA/EFTA deal, most people would have voted to remain.

carol could you explain why you think that the EU has too much to loose?

We have about 50% of our exports towards Europe, so quite a big chunk of our economy.
But the EU export only 9% of their products to the UK. So what does it have to loose?

It will loose a big chunk of money that will mean rebalancing the budget though. But I haven't hear anyone say yet that it is such a big hole that it has to convince us to stay one way or the other.

And YY Switzerland would love to control the movement of people. It hasn't got that though. The EU is still imposing free movement of people.

Switzerland does not have full single market access. It is an EFTA state but it is not part of the EEA. Instead it has its own bilateral treaties.

A Swiss referendum voted for quotas on immigration by 0.6% but this was turned down by the EU after 2 years of negotiation who have told them they will lose single market access.

Manon I agree.
Trades agreements take years to set up an din the mean time, we would be in a very bad situation.
Was it the one with China that took more than 10 years to agree on?

What I'm wondering is what will be the situation when the Article 50 is done.
Do I get it right that the UK will still pay but will have no power in the EU until an agreement is found (whihc might take 2 years but it might take much longer seen how complicated it will be to detangle all the laws etc...)

I'm not sure we know, EverythingWill.

Apparently Philip Hammond said that Brexit will take 6 years in parliament today?!

But I don't know how that works - as I thought triggering A50 meant 2yrs exactly to negotiate an exit - which can be extended, but only by agreement of all countries.

During that "2yrs" we cannot begin trade negotiations outside of the EU - which leaves us up shit creek without a paddle?

The EU cannot let us out of the free market without seriously damaging their economies

No, in short. EU exports to the UK represent 3% of their GDP, while UK exports to the EU represents 13% of ours. In other words, we need them more than they need us, so they are in much more powerful position.

And as the only other option for us is 7-10 years in trade limbo on WTO rules, which will cost British consumers an extra £9billion a year on imports alone while we renegotiate, we are desperate and they know it. So they can really name their terms.

Moreover, they will not give us a deal on leaving the EU that their own members or the EFTA states do not have.

Anyway, the current plan is not to leave the free market, but to re-enter without EU membership.

which leaves us up shit creek without a paddle?

Essentially yes, which is why the EU is in such a strong position.