The Westministenders / Media Baron Hunger Games continues. Who is trying to outmanoeuvre who?

[RedToothBrush]

Don't worry we've all lost track.

In the Blue Corner
It started out with Cameron and Osborne trying to win the battle of the Tories, but they got stung in a UK wide vote. Some of us thought it was about the 'EU'. Instead it has turned out it was an internal Tory Bitch fight between some old Oxford and Eton mates, whilst for others a protest vote at being disenfranchised.
Gove and Johnson stabbed Cameron & Osborne in the back to run for Team Leave. Then they won when they didn't expect to. And there was no Plan. Uh Oh. Then it all started to go really wrong.
Cameron quit in disgust. Johnson went all President Churchill, before he also got stabbed by Gove (possibly with the assistance of the dark influence of Osborne).
We now have a Tory Smackdown with the shadowy influence of the Media Barons in the background.

#Team Gove has been doing their best with the knives. This is a mission to stab as many Tory MPs in the back as possible in order to become PM. Sponsored and supported by Murdoch

#Team Leadsom has been selling more unicorns and trying to pretend her CV and tax return are completely transparent. Think positive and the economy will be just fine. She is the homeopathy of politics. Sponsored and supported by Arron Banks, Leave.eu, UKIP and Britain First.

#Team May has been threatening to deport everyone if the EU don't play nice. Sponsored and supported by The Daily Mail's Dacre

In The Purple Corner
Tragically, it appears that not only do UKIP have a Plan A, they also have outwitted everyone by having Plan B. Yes that’s right TWO plans.
Farage has swanned off –sacked—for a life on CBB so they are looking for a new leader.
The potential candidates are all equally loathsome. They include Arron Banks himself, a suspended member of the party and several other people with an uncanny ability to put their foot in their mouths.
If this wasn't horrible enough, Team Leadsom is increasingly starting to look like a UKIP take over bid of the Conservative Party, which might be a neat way of avoiding a leadership battle of their own considering the quality of the candidates on offer.

In short, its a bit like a Bad Dystopian Movie that invokes Godwin, set in 2016 Westminster. Except its real.
In the Red Corner
Meanwhile the WMD has finally gone off in the Labour Camp, as Chilcot has been published. However the Chicken Coup rattles on regardless.

Corbyn is STILL clinging on, putting in a good claim for the Westminster 'Charlie off Casualty' Award. He has however had his Big Moment in the Commons. Which was a bit of a let down really. ...

The Unions have been trying to talk some sense into everyone. Meanwhile everyone else is has given up and are now just praying for a ruddy miracle to end this torture and give the country an opposition party.

Angela Eagle is still outside for the 5th day in a row, going "I will stand. Soon. If he doesn't quit" The BBC now qualify for a discount deal at the local Travel Lodge.

We FINALLY know who the fuck Owen Smith is! He's a Welsh MP and sounds like he's not completely away with the political fairies.

George Galloway appears to be trying to make a late bid to be included on the ballot paper for any leadership election.
Bliar's cried. We didn't. Chilcot took over 2 million words to tell us everything we already knew. As well as the fact that Mi6 like Nicholas Cage a lot.

The Cult of Momentum are still worshiping their Dear Leader by sending death threats to PR companies they suspect of disloyalty. Somehow they still manage not to get the title of the most vile pressure group in the UK.

And I suppose I should ask, when will a50 be triggered....? And by whom?

All these questions and more.
Tin foil hats now available upon request

Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2675432-Boris-outmaneovered-Et-tu-Gove-Corbyn-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-Continues? Previous thread 4

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2678198-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-continues-Boris-still-trying-not-to-be-outmanoeuvred Previous thread 5

Oh no, there is a link between Leadsom and the Koch brothers

We are DOOMED

I didn't know the Koch brothers had their evil fingers all over British politics too!

The true purpose and intent of Brexit becomes all the more clear.

sigh

I wonder how much of arron banks the Koch brothers own? How much of ukip?

Yes, either one person resigns or Labour deselect about 175 MPs, many of whom will stand again and split the left vote letting in UKIP or Tories .....

MrsLupo JC inspires some of the Labour vote and his fans can't understand what a turnoff he is to most other voters.
It is the echo chamber effect, even worse in the internet age than in 1983:

I vividly remember Michael Foot, who was a towering intellect & genuine talent - far above JC.
Michael also inspired the Labour Left, but repelled the wider electorate because his policies were much further to the left than the public would accept.
He was fiercely patriotic and didn't have JC's poisonous past of flirting with UK enemies.
Especially now, a leader like JC, who clearly despises the national anthem and the Union Jack - but happily attends events with Irish / Palestinian / Iranian flags waving - is a dead duck.

Unlike Michael, JC has never bothered doing the nitty gritty jobs of Opposition Leader

Long before the PLP attempted coup:

The official monthly Civil Service briefing meetings for the Opposition are always adjourned or cancelled because no one from Labour turns up.

A civil servant posted that
Labour don't:

• collect the briefing notes
• answer requests about "topics to be covered"
• answer offers of assistance in policy implementation
• send info up the chain via shadow spokespersons to the Leader's Office.

You know what, I didn't realise till I started following this thread, just how pissed off I am with Corbyn's performance.

The Prime Minister had just proved himself the biggest cockup merchant since Anthony Eden, the country was in chaos and the leader of the opposition just didn't show up.

I'm not interested in how poor anyone else was or in any more excuses for him. My goldfish would have been a more effective leader that weekend and I don't even have a goldfish.

I've always found Daniel Hannan creepy -this page doesn't help assuage that feeling. It's all very cultish

www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Daniel_Hannan

I think one of Corbyn's problems with 'looking like a leader' is that the qualities we look for when we decide if someone is 'statesmanlike' or whatever have become quite skewed. We talked a lot on one of the previous threads about the massive image-making machine that informs how politicians present themselves, and the truth is, it does influence how they are perceived, or they wouldn't bother doing it. If impressive presentation is what you're looking for, nobody does it better than the Eton boys, and personally I like that Corbyn doesn't even bother engaging with the game. He even jokes about it:

'When I look in the mirror, it is less for sartorial elegance than to examine what’s in my own eye before pointing out the specks in others.'

(One of the things I found I rather liked that emerged about Jo Cox after she died was quite how few clothes she appears to have had - as you might expect of someone who lived on a boat. If you google images of her, you'll see the same 3 dresses, 2 jackets and a couple of scarves over and over again. I like this. I like that she was more interested in her job than her image.)

In terms of leader-like behaviour, again, we have come to associate this with predatory behaviour - seizing the opportunity to make opponents look stupid, for example. Cameron does this excellently, I agree, especially at the dispatch box, and anyone who has ever been bullied probably cringes every time they hear it. I like that Corbyn doesn't do this just because he can. Yes, he could have stepped into the void the day after the referendum and slagged Cameron off for fucking up the country, but I Iike that he didn't. He and Corbyn campaigned on the same side in any case, so for every person who thought, 'wow, how assertive and leader-like' there would have been another who thought he was a fucking hypocrite, I imagine.

As for how he would fare in negotiations with Sturgeon or Merkel or whoever, well, I think they would at least be negotiations, instead of the demands and foot stamping that have so signally failed to get us what was hoped for in Europe. I also think they would be underpinned by a morality that most people, if they are honest, would prefer to the prospect of, for example, Theresa May (or worse) signing up to TTIP in order to get anyone to trade with us. Negotiation doesn't have to be aggressive and domineering to be effective, rather the reverse in fact. The Quakers, who make decisions entirely by consensus are, I believe, the only religious NGO with consultative status at the UN, and their intervention in toxic international situations is much valued.

Anyway, I'll shut up now, as I sense I'm becoming a Corbyn bore. If you don't like him, nothing I say will change your mind anyway. But it would be good if people would stop bandying the word 'unelectable' about without thinking about whether it's actually true or whether it has just been said repeatedly by people who have a vested interest in convincing us it must be true. (Not on these threads particularly, to be clear.)

I like Corbyn's principles and I wished him well, I really did. But when he talked about 'a different kind of politics', I didn't realise he meant a politics where your leader goes awol when the shit hits the fan. I just can't get past that.

Twitter/Sunday Times - "20 Tory modernisers could split if Leadsom wins - and senior special advisers floats idea of new party"

Who do we think they might be? Sarah Wollaston?

Wow, is anything going to be left intact by the end of the year? Tories, Labour, UK, EU... got to wonder if the US will start imploding soon. These are getting to be altogether too interesting times...

Mrs Lupo, My concern with JC is that the PLP get so preoccupied with rooting out blairites and class traitors in the own party that they don't bother with the nazi coup going on in the tories. They have to be an opposition and provide an alternative.

If the PLP has genuinely list confidence in JC, I think he and his team have to take that seriously and start trying uk find an honourable successor which he can support. He cannot carry on claiming to lead the opposition when the only points getting out to the country are that his own members can't work with him and the he's the puppet of the unions, with the odd Israeli gaffe.

Gossip about Theresa May in the MoS
A friend recalls: ‘She was invited to dinner with the Blairs at their home recently but declined. When I asked why, she replied, “I’ve never liked Tony, I’ve never liked Cherie, and have no interest in seeing them or their house.” ’

MrsLupo, I liked many of those things about Corbyn. I'm not bothered by the fact that he doesn't bother with the image game. I much admire the Quakers. Indeed I have Quakers in my family.

The trouble I have is that people have this idea of Corbyn as a superhero now - the idea does not match the reality.

And to be blunt about it, when people needed to see him, not necessarily expecting him to do the whole combative leader thing, he just wasn't there. He just went awol. When the chips were down and people needed him, he didn't step up and say 'SOMETHING. ANYTHING'.

By the sound of it, he's really not interested in doing the day to day stuff of leadership. He has his particular interests he wants to do and is passionate about, but beyond that? No. He doesn't do compromise, which unfortunately you do need to do, at least at first to bring in change and to steer the ship on a different course effectively.

When it comes to it, he has the moral purpose but not the ability nor willingness to work as a team to make that purpose work and appeal to more people than those who are already converts to the cause. Instead he appears to have ended up surrounded by yes men.

If he were to take that and go alone in his own party it might work, but he is the Labour Party leader and you can't just stick to your own faction of that.

Main Qualities Required for Leader of the Opposition:

and what Labour urgently needs in JC's successor

1. To effectively oppose the government, including making full use of available civil service support.
   . He has been inadequate before Brexit (see my post wrt civil service reports) and failed to punish the Tories in any significant way for the worst peacetime cockup since the Great Depression.
   . He certainly can't effectively oppose now, when over 80% of the PLP officially have no confidence in him.
   . He is neither a Leader nor a team player.

2. To be a credible alternative PM who the electorate would vote for.
   . He is a good student protest leader who seems to have no interest in being PM.
   . He has never held any public office or even been on the Front Bench before becoming leader.
   . He doesn't appear to like the UK, its flag, anthem or armed forces.
   . He repels most voters outside the Labour left core, with policies such as unlimited non-EU immigration and his past flirting with groups hostile to the UK.

3. To support Labour party main Policy
   . The referendum was the most important decision post-WW2 and Remain has been party policy for decades
   . During the referendum campaign, he did not cooperate with Labour's In campaign and his team - Seamus Milne & co - actively sabotaged it
   . He made about one appearance per week - the Labour Remain vote was in spite of his efforts, not because of them.
   Many Labour voters were unaware that Labour supported Remain to support the wc and they thought the EU was for the elite only.
   Fullhearted support by a competent Labour Leader would have swung the vote the other way.
   . As soon as the result was known, he unilaterally changed policy 180 degrees and supported Brexit. This may have made political sense later, but his immediate switch was unnecessary, very revealing and totally without consultation with the PLP.

No party leader is a serious contender for PM when over 80% of their MPs officially say they have no confidence in him.
He is a leader in name only.
The country needs Leader of the Opposition for the next 4 years of a very rightwing Tory government.
He has always been just a Zombie Leader

And if Tory Party members also vote for a leader whom their MPs overwhelmingly oppose ...

Parliament will be Zombie Central

A cabinet minister's aide floated in the past fortnight the idea of a new party called the Democrats, with Tim Farron, the leader of the Liberal Democrats and a Labour MP.

Farron thinks the Lib Dems brand has been tarnished and would look with interest at a new party.

A Tory MEP has also approached Paddy Ashdown, the former Lib Dem leader, saying he and several colleagues want to work together if Leadsom wins.

The Sunday Times revealed last week that Ashdown had held talks with senior Labour MPs about joining forces to launch a centre-ground alliance that could grow into a new party.

Posted by Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham - think its extract from a Sunday Times article but I'm not sure who wrote it. The idea is essentially a 'Remain Ticket' I believe and to create a new, stronger centre party to try and attract the young.

Last night a Times columnist - Tim Montgomery posted an article proposing 4 new parties from left to right - The Solidarity Party, The Liberal Party, The Nationals and The Freedom Party.

twitter.com/search?q=%40montie&src=tyah I can't link to it directly. It was posted about 10pm last night if you scroll down. Its worth looking at the descriptions for it ESPECIALLY after reading the above and knowing that last night Arron Banks tweeted that he liked the sound of The Freedom Party.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/arron-banks-farage-was-a-drama-queen-ill-be-the-scary-new-king-of-ukip-wv2zqbnjp Arron Banks has done an interview with The Sunday Times, which very strongly suggests he is going to stand for the leadership of UKIP (especially if you read his comments in the last 24 hours on twitter). I'm now expecting it to be rebranded as something like 'The Freedom Party'.

There are quite a lot of people in the last 24 hours or so, saying that a complete political realignment is on the cards and likely to happen. I must admit, I find it interesting to see that the one party who have kept out of the political turmoil, perhaps do seem ready to also have a look at it.

I also find it interesting that all this noise has been made by The Times and Sunday Times.

If Labour totally implode I think its a realistic possibility, though I'm not sure I completely agree with the Montgomery descriptions myself.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Young People Referendum Turnout twice as much as previously thought.

The talk of political realignment is interesting.

I could definitely see the more centrist Labour and Tories getting together with the LibDems to form a new moderate party.

Is there a reason why electoral alliances aren't more common in British politics? The only one I've seen in the years I've been here was the Tory/LibDem monstrosity, which I know remember with fondness and regret... how times change

Actually the reason is FPTP isn't it? It encourages a system with two major rival parties, leaving only crumbs for the rest

OK I'm about to paint myself into a corner. I'm so pissed off with Corbyn I can't stand the sight of him right now. But nor do I want a labour leader who voted for Iraq and then carried on voting against any investigation into it. Not unless they're prepared to individually acknowledge and apologise.

That government did a terrible, terrible thing. Even if they were acting in good faith, the people who aided and abetted it can't just carry on like nothing happened.

Which I imagine - please correct me if I'm wrong - rules out pretty much every name mentioned as a potential leader except Owen Smith who wasn't around at the time.

This is why I'm so angry with Corbyn. I really wanted him to be the right person for the job but he's been fucking useless this last fortnight and I don't see any way back for him.

PS I've spent a long time writing this (googling voting records) so apologies if the discussion's moved on.

Tim Montgomerie's new parties. Possible party members seem a bit .

That's very interesting Red. If there is an unsuccessful leadership challenge for Corbyn, it seems untenable that the 172+ can remain as Labour MPs and so the party will break apart. It's a sad day for Labour.

It's intensely frustrating to me that so many still see him as the "plucky underdog" who is the victim of conspiracy. He totally let the party and the country down by failing to campaign for Remain. There is ample evidence of this. He should have had the grace to step down after the result. He has brought the no confidence vote on himself.

Yes I agree TBS, but broadly speaking. I also don't think that goes far enough to the left to include Corbynites.

Thanks for this, BigChoc

The official monthly Civil Service briefing meetings for the Opposition are always adjourned or cancelled because no one from Labour turns up.

A civil servant posted that
Labour don't:
+ collect the briefing notes
+ answer requests about "topics to be covered"
+ answer offers of assistance in policy implementation
+ send info up the chain via shadow spokespersons to the Leader's Office.

How fucking dare they?

The Labour party belongs to every working person in the UK.

Corbyn needs to go.

There is an important job that needs to be done for our democracy and he is just giving every onr of us the finger.

Fuck him and his ridiculous supporters.

Tory Leadership
Tory Councillors (survation phone poll below) have a similar 2:1 preference to members (YouGov panellists poll) for TM over AL

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Final-Con-Cllrs-Tables-1c0d6h2.pdf#page=144_
Leadsom 26%
May 50%

Only the LeaveEu poll, when I gather they polled their own mailing list, has Loathsome in the lead

Polls have sampling problems, but if they stay around 2:1 for TM, it would be totally incredible mathematiically if Loathsome still wins. Accuracy should be +/- 3%
< sticks on maths hat, crosses fingers & toes really hard >