Should we guarantee the rights of eu citzens to remain unilaterally

[ReallyTired]

I think we should. They came here with the belief that they could live here.

I suppose the argument is that Spain and France may not show compassion to British citizens who have emigrated. Certainly Spain may well be tempted to use it as leverage to gain sovernity of Gibraltar. I think the chances of the French being vindictive is less.

If Scotland leaves the uk and joins the EU could there be an arrangement where ex pats become Scottish citizens? (Even if they are 100% English or Welsh) in the event of British citizens being sent back?

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu
Just this....

nosuchnumber, going by the figures on that link:

29,095 = the number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit in other EU countries.

64,830 = the number of EU nationals claiming unemployment benefit in Britain.

So there are more than double the amount of unemployment benefit claimants from the EU in Britain, than there are British unemployment benefits in other EU countries.

I am confused as to the point you are trying to make.

Added to that, the biggest problem expressed by far (wrt EU immigration) is not that 'they are all on benefits' but that they are flooding the unskilled labour market & driving wages down.

So all your link proves is that they are not just driving wages down etc, they also outnumber their British counterparts more than 2 to 1 when it comes to claiming benefits in the host country.

That statistic is fine to use Mango, but then you need to realise also that there are more UK nationals on benefits in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands etc than there are of their nationalities here.

Essentially you are treating the EU as one country which isn't a fair comparison.

So, then lets play a little with those numbers.

there are 64, 380 EU nationals on unemployment benefits, out of 1.9 million EU citizens thought to be economically active which works out as 3.3% of them are unemployed. So 96.7% of economically active EU citizens are in work, which suggests that the "coming here for the benefits" rhetoric is just rubbish.

Lets play some more with numbers, EU nationals make up 6.3% of the work force, yet out of those unemployed and claiming benefits they make up 3.38% of those that are unemployed, so statistically they are under represented on the JSA claimant count too.

So almost all in work, under represented on the claimaint count, have to leave if they don't have a job within 3 months.

I think that's all of the myths debunked thoroughly.

I wasn't disputing the fact that they are more likely to be working than in benefits though - that was thoroughly debunked before the referendum.
I was just pointing out that the opposite way of looking at the stats linked.

As I said, the most oft repeated complaint re EU economic migrants working unskilled jobs is that wages are driven down and they are willing to work in conditions that are below standard.

But again is going to be a very, very small percentage of those in employment who are living in very poor HMO conditions.

and a 10% increase in immigration in your area only lowers wages for the bottom 5% of workers by 1.9%, 10% increases in immigration into an area are very rare when you look for the statistical data. Boston Lincs would have it, but few others.

Also much of the wage argument laid at the door of immigraton is actually better explained by identifying the economic crash and the fall out from it as the cause.

a 10% increase in immigration in your area only lowers wages for the bottom 5% of workers by 1.9%, 10% increases in immigration into an area are very rare when you look for the statistical data. Boston Lincs would have it, but few others.

Source?

Its impossible to say with any accuracy how much they are driving down wages because nobody knows how many EU (and other) immigrants are here. The official ONS figures are only estimates. Many people do not realise this and imagine they are somehow counted in and out! They are NOT! And NI numbers only give the crudest guide as many are working in the black market, and they have even more of a negative effect on wages.

However I do agree most EU immigrants are not living on benefits and frankly none of them should be. The idea of freedom of movement is that they should not become a burden on the host state. However a large number of those who are working are still a burden because they are taking in work benefits and of course adding to the burden on our infrastructure which wasnt even factored into the Lords report, you may recall, which concluded EU immigrants were on average contributing a very tiny amount more to the exchequer than they take out. In reality the vast majority of them including all those in minimum wage jobs are a drain. Its the smaller numbers of highly skilled immigrants such as dentists, doctors, engineers who actually earn enough to bump up the average contribution.

Aerfen

Have you ever LIVED in Germany?

You don't seem to understand how Germany works. It isn't as centralised as the UK (i.e. London). Berlin may be the capital city, but Hamburg is the port city, Frankfurt the financial centre, Duesseldorf and the surrounding area is the industry hub and Munich is the media capital which has always been the home of the glitterati and the super-rich!

I have friends in Munich... and almost every single person in Germany (even 15 years ago) would tell you that Munich is expensive. More expensive than Berlin or Frankfurt! So comparing it with Bristol is futile. You have to compare Munich to London - because that's the closest comparison you can find. You can compare Bristol with Hanover (which is also its twin city, by the way). You'll realise that Hanover is cheaper.

German single mum in the UK is NOT getting a better overall package here. But you just don't want to listen... so continue thinking that England is so great. HINT: It is not. Seriously, it really isn't! Why on Earth do you think this fleck in the ocean is so great?!?

The source is the BOE report into the impact of immigration on wages and unemployment and that of the Centre for Economic Performance.

I'd also rather look at the UCL data for the contributions, to get the HOL figure where there is a slight net contribution you have to include payment for public goods like defence into the "costs" of immigration. This one finds that there is 20bn in net contributions.

I'll tackle your "benefits" points.

14% of households with one EU person in them recieve tax credits, so lets take that from 1.9 million people. So that's about 266,000 people. An actual very small number. Around 990,000 claims were made for Child benefit for parents who were non - UK national, about 12.5% of the total, and again under representative of immigrants as a proportion of the population. Oh and only 32,000 children living abroad were registered for CB and about 11, 000 for the purpose of CTCs ( which suggests that even people earning above the threshold for CTCs were claiming CB).

You also have to consider that there are a higher number of Brits unemployed in Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweeden then there are of their nations over here, and that UK nationals get in work benefits from other countries too.

Your attitude regarding benefits is highly dubious, you rant and rave about the "cost" when actually its an extremely small % of government spending or the benefits bill. Constantly referring to people as a "burden" is not nice, and in fact gets you nearly at the dog whistle level.

What I can't get over is the inhumanity of Aerfen's comment that the reason the German mother doesn't go back to Germany is because her benefits' package is better here

I don't know anything about Germany's benefits system but did it occur to her that it might be because this is where her life is - where her friends, home, school for her ds are. Nothing to do with which package is "better"

And that's before challenging the totally unfounded ridiculous statement that her ds would learn German more quickly just because his mother was German Is she suggesting that German is somehow "hard wired" into the boy's brain ?

Snowbells.
I do know Germans and while its a ridiculous statement to claim such omniscience as to 'know how Germany works', put it like this, your little nuggets told me nothing I didnt know already. Nor is 'twinning' an indicator that one town compares closely with another in a different country.
Hanover is not comparable to Bristol any more than Munich is or the latter to London. Germany does 'work' very differently, on that at least we can agree

And no I certainly wouldnt trust UCL stats! UCl that would be where Prof Christian Dustmann put out the false claim that only 13k Eastern Europeans would be likely to come to Britain, thus giving Blair the excuse he wanted to open Britain to the A8 five years before most other EU countries opend up to them!

But lets look at the first figure you offer from the massively pro EU pro mass immigration source:
"14% of households with one EU person in them receive tax credits."
Well yes those with only ONE EU person are not likely to receive tax credits, silly! Its families of three four or five EU persons who are receiving tax credits - another deliberately misleading stat!

Re the German woman, neither of us knows for sure if her benefits are better here or there, but it is a very reasonable assumption that they well may be. Our benefit system IS particularly generous to single mothers in terms of in work benefit.

Its a possibility that she chooses to be poorer here for personal reasons too, but you do not know that, NOR does it mean that British tax payers should have to support her and allow here the luxury of that choice. She has contributed nothing since she came here, it has been all 'take' and we have our own citizens, of all races, who were BORN here, and who need the council house she is occupying, and our own needy who need the money she has scrounged for 8 years.

I dont think she should be literally 'thrown out' post Brexit, because she is settled here, but I certainly think her entitlement to in work benefits should end after a warning period. She should have to be self supporting as the vast majority of British citizens living in the EU have to be, because access to benefits in most EU countries is more strictly controlled than here.

Go on Aerfen. Signing off from this. You don't want to listen.

I know more than you about Germany because I have family there, I have friends there, I grew up there... and also have a German passport lying somewhere, too... which helps me cope with the Brexit vote, as dual citizenship allows me to have my cake and eat it (unlike most of the Leavers and Remainers).

OK lets look at a few facts about German benefits for single mothers:

^"People who are on a low income (under 600 Euro for single
parents) can apply for children‘s allowance of up to 140 Euros per
month for six months. Parents who receive social security benefits
or category II unemployment benefits are not entitled to children's
allowance.^
^Families and single parents on low income can also apply for
housing allowance. Tenants are entitled to a rent subsidy
(Mietzuschuss).^
The housing benefit is strictly means tested and administered locally (so variable)

If this is the full picture the German mother is certainly better off here while she chooses to work part time. She and her son would probably be better off in Germany if she chose to return to full time work in hairdressing.

Nobody has put forward a good case why British taxpayers should subsidize her to have an easier life!

I know more than you about Germany because I have family there, I have friends there, I grew up there... and also have a German passport lying somewhere

IN that case you should be able to put forward a better case to demonstrate that she will be financially better off in Germany working part time and living in social housing than she is here.

,

Ok then, how about we have all of the Brits unemployed in Germany back here, and send those pesky Germans back.

You are aware there are more Brits unemployed in Germany than there are here yeah?

HI smallfox.

There may well be more Brits unemployed in Germany than unemployed Germans here (although bear in mind its unemployed and claiming benefit that counts, not self supporting unemployed, which some may be)

However there sure as hell are FAR more Poles and Romanians unemployed here than Brits in either of those countries!
Across the EU we have far more claiming benefits here than our people claiming benefits over there. Thus Britain stands to gain if a deal is struck whereby EU out of work benefit claimants have their benefit stopped.

Bear in mind pensioners in contrast do not drain the countries where they settle since they bring foreign currency which they spend in those countries. They are self supporting. I expect many will return though with the devaluation of the pound which isnt going to stretch as far in Spain as it used to do.

They are not all self supporting, some of them are, many of them use up state provided services out there.

Again I'll go back to actual figures there are 64,000 unemployed EU citizens here, this means that overall they make up 3% of the JSA count.

It also doesn't mean that they are long term unemployed, the average length of time spent on JSA is 3 months.

Then you come to the fact that unless you have paid in to the system you have to leave after 3 months.

So these are in the vast majority have come and paid tax and will be back in work within a reasonable amount of time. Also if we don't let people claim benefits after they have paid tax then therefore they should be rebated, this would be far more expensive to administer than the current system.

Your obsession with this, which is a relatively tiny amount of public spending and has very little opportunity cost, rather shows why you are so interested, its iniquitous to make the arguments that you do.

Aerfen

There are several calculators you can find online. Not putting them on here, as they are all understandably in German.

The one thing you have to realize is that living standards are MUCH higher. I have had friends growing up whose parents were not as fortunate as mine, but had a standard of living that someone getting working tax credit, etc. can only dream of. In fact, since I've been living in the UK for a few decades now, I always worried about my sibling (who dropped out of uni, unlike me) and he always has to remind me that he lives in Germany and not the UK, so he's fine.

I was SHOCKED when I saw how people here in the UK lived - even those you'd consider middle class! It is difficult to compare the UK to Germany, and I think we should just leave that now. To be honest... to me, the UK is easier to compare with the Eastern bloc, where there's a huge gab between the haves and have nots.

"living standards in Germany are MUCH higher"

And... "gap"... sorry for the typos. Difficult to type and eatch Wimbledon at the same time.

Smallfox
Shall we consider a few stats. This is from MW who always use official ONS and EU stats;

In 2013/14 the UK spent £1.4 billion on state pension payments to recipients living elsewhere in the European Union

EU partners charge the NHS for the costs of treating British pensioners. In 2013/14 the UK paid £580 million to other EEA countries for the treatment of British pensioners resident in the EEA while it received just £12 million from other EEA countries in the same year for the treatment of EEA pensioners in the UK

So you see it is completely untrue that UK pensioners in EU countries are a financial burden. The financial benefits they get very much outweigh the burden

In contrast EU immigrants here, even the employed pay little income tax and take benefits, housing, get free NHS treatment and free education for their kids.

Most Brits who go to the EU are not poor people, they are mostly self reliant and often well educated. Of course that applies to EU professionals coming here but not to the majority who are taking low wage jobs.And even those EU professionals get free healthcare while EU countries claim back their healthcare costs from us!

Of course arguably thats our own governments fault, but the problem is because the NHS is not set up as a charging insurance based service, its not administratively well equipped to charge for services provided. Thus we lose out!

Snowbells
I was SHOCKED when I saw how people here in the UK lived - even those you'd consider middle class!

Yet you choose to live here...

I certainly wouldn't use migration watch which has been criticised on a large number of occasions for its use of data.

The disparity between payments in and out of the EU for healthcare is mostly down to the fact that we have more pensioners living in the EU than other EU countries do over here, and secondly that the NHS has been very poor in reclaiming the money it could from other EU countries. Nothing to do with "dependency" also looking at healtcare as the only public service utilised is poor, pensioners are unlikely to use education but they do benefit from the use of other public services other than healthcare.

Also, per capita that works out at about £580 per pensioner in Spain per year, I'm fairly sure their health costs are higher than that. The "self Suficient" thing is nothing more than arrogance.

You still haven't addressed the point regarding the fact that the vast majority of EU nationals claiming JSA will do for a short time and have paid into the system.

I certainly wouldn't use migration watch which has been criticised on a large number of occasions for its use of data.
No source is perfect but since MW always uses official Government figures pro EUers can hardly accuse them of not using the best available.

The disparity between payments in and out of the EU for healthcare is mostly down to the fact that we have more pensioners living in the EU than other EU countries do over here, and secondly that the NHS has been very poor in reclaiming the money it could from other EU countries

The second of these is precisely what I said SFox, but it underlines the incompatibility between a free healthcare system and maintaining open borders. IF we are to do the latter we need to change our NHS into a contributory insurance based system, which would suit right wing Bremainers but not those on the left!

I agree there probably are more British pensioners in the EU than EU pensioners here, although that is changing slowly as Eastern European families bring their ageing parents over to join them.

EU nationals claiming JSA have paid in but do not have to do so significantly to become entitled, a short spell picking fruit or even selling the 'Beeg Eesiw' is sufficient o give them 'worker' status.

When we leave no EU citizens should be able to claim and that can only be a good thing. We are not such a rich country that we can afford to be throwing money away on other countries' unemployed and in some cases, especially some of the Roma immigrants, unemployable!

Then no citizens will be able to claim over there either then will they?

There are so few EU migrants who are unemployed long term that it would make scant difference to the fiscal balance of the country.

By concentrating on this you are certainly showing your attitude toward immigrants.

Oh and Migration watch do use statistics, but their reports have been found to be misleading and inaccurate on a number of occasions. I'd rather use the data at source and conduct my own analysis than use that of a grouop so heavily criticised. They certainly are not neutral and have had to withdraw some of their "finding" or newspapers that use them have had to print apologise for using their misleading and inaccurate data.