The Westministenders Hunger Games continues. Boris still trying not to be outmanoevered.

[RedToothBrush]

Clearly Boris didn't get the memo, on when to quit the power games, even after Gove schooled him in the dark arts of the Tory Leadership....

So the Tory Smackdown rolls on whilst Corbyn STILL clings on. UKIP has now entered the race to make a challenge for who can make the biggest leadership contest shambles.

In The Blue Corner
May strikes fear into the hearts of EU citizens as she counts her bargaining chips.
Gove strikes fear into the hearts of humans, with his Martian twitch.
Loathsom strikes fear in the hearts of Britains by talking about babies brains.
Crabb strikes fear into the hearts of Torys by suggesting a plan that Corbyn might like. (and that beard doesn't help).
And Fox.
Well he just turned up.

Johnson is still waiting in the wings to stab Gove. He'd quite fancy a seat at the cabinet table too.
Osborne has gone quite again and we wait with baited breathe to see if he is the 'Charlie off Casualty' of the Tory Party (y'know whatever happens he somehow survives like a cockroach).

In The Red Corner
Corbyn apologies. So we know he's getting a bit desperate.
Will the Unions figure out something else to do other than sit with their head in hands.
Angela Eagle is still doing jellyfish impressions and hasn't found that backbone.
We STILL don't know who the fuck Owen Smith is?
Will Bliar's chicken's finally come home to roost?
The Cult of Momentum, rumbles on. We aren't quite sure who they actually vote for, but they seem to like their Dear Leader.
When will this country next have an opposition party?

Its kinda getting boring guys, we need some action now. End the Chicken Coup! The Tories are definitely out doing in the high drama stakes.

In the Purple Corner
Farage has gone! Hurrah. We hope only that he stays under that rock.
(Don't count on it. They'll wheel him out when they need publicity)
Will Leadsom be elected leader? Oh sorry, wrong party. I was getting confused for a second there.
Will they throw the cuckoo Carswell out? [:)]
Will they be able to find a less offensive leader than Farage who can unite them in their common goal of errrr..... yeah. That.
How long before one of their candidates has to apologise for something?

And I suppose I should ask, when will a50 be triggered....? And by whom?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2675432-Boris-outmaneovered-Et-tu-Gove-Corbyn-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-Continues? Previous thread 4

Leadsom: The Times only rake over Invesco Perpetual so curious to see her other claims - 10 yrs in BZW and Barclays etc…Boasting about having a 'ringside seat' when Barings bank collapsed - that's quite relevant for Britain's economic crisis to come.

Yes. Alternative presents and futures ... if Chilcot had been published before the referendum ...

I cannot believe that the revelations about Leadsom's CV won't sink her. It's utterly preposterous. Surely, surely people (and that includes the Conservaitve membership) have had enough of being seriously lied to? Doesn't this undo her USP: "Trust me, I've experience with this"?

I'm still worried by the fact that, in the hours after the referendum result was clear, Corbyn announced that he felt A50 needed to be triggered immediately.

That suggests two things to me: 1. He wasn't thinking about how much work/labour would be involved in exiting the EU: the pure administrative pain it's going to be. This would have been clear after a few conversations/some thought. Which brings me to 2. Who, exactly, had he discussed that statement with? Was it unilateral? What sort of close advisory team does he have? Who would he have as advisory team if he ever, actually, made it to PM?

Meanwhile, the economy is damaged and I'm still not seeing enough reporting on that. If you think (and I do) there is still need for pressure to be put on government post-Brexit, that pressure must arise from an informed public, made aware of the risks post-Brexit. So information is crucial.

Where, oh where is the Opposition? I am getting incredibly fed up now.

There will be a surprising number of people in the Tory Party whose only decision point will be "which candidate hates the EU most?" These days the mood is that all politicians lie all the time and I don't see this dissembling as being a killer to her prospects.

We're currently in a post-fact period where gut-feeling is king.

Although there is the alternative thought of "who will be better able to protect THEIR personal financial interests best?" and that may come into play.

Thanks for the thread, I've finally caught up - sorry for placemarking

Thanks redtoothbrush.

Although there is the alternative thought of "who will be better able to protect THEIR personal financial interests best?" and that may come into play.

Didn't we try that the other week? It didn't go as well as expected.

Speaking in 2010, Mrs Leadsom said "Eddie George, the then Governor of the Bank of England, called together a small group of bankers, including myself, and we worked over the weekend to calm the fears of banks that were exposed to Barings

The direct result was that there was no run on the banks on the Monday Morning, Barings was allowed to fail and there was no systemic contagion
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/andrea-leadsom-meet-the-conservative-party-leadership-candidate/

John Gapper ‏@johngapper ·  City of London, London

I was FT banking editor and wrote a Barings book. I never heard of Andrea Leadsom until now

These days the mood is that all politicians lie all the time and I don't see this dissembling as being a killer to her prospects.

Me neither

I read on another thread a suggestion of requiring certain economic tests to be satisfied before an actual Brexit. Similar to requiring tests to be met before entering the euro.

Not seen that. I will try and look into it a bit later if no one else has. Real life getting in the way today!

The trouble is Greece fudged all their requirements for the Euro (whilst the UK looked into by the letter even though we were never going to do it and we apparently didn't make the requirements)

I think that is the suggestion - set strict economic tests to be met before A50 is invoked then there is a legitimate reason to apply the brakes

Also, she called Mark Carney liar during the Brexit campaign.

(I accept I am biased ) but that troubles me.

Carney has done well since Brexit. He's the face of nstional stability right now.

But she called his probity into question to score political points.

In a negotiation with the EU that kind of carry on will be fatal for us.

'dissembling? She's on the record many many times as saying her 25 years of financial experience at very senior levels make her the ideal negotiator for BREXIT? And she told lies about EU laws in the debate (that Ruth Davidson picked up on). Very very flaky indeed.

Loathsome is truly preposterous, isn't she?

She is seeming more and more like one of those fantasists, who gets drunk at a party and tells all and sundry about the time they performed emergency brain surgery whilst simultaneously flying an aeroplane. The truly alarming thing is, she seems to have borrowed a white coat and made her way into theatre ...

All great fun in a film but absolutely shocking if we actually hand the aeroplane of the UK over to her.

But Gove.

The London School of Economics have looked at the different polls and have concluded that the Leave vote was ALWAYS ahead in the last month of the campaign, and possibly for the entire year.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/eu-referendum-polls/
If you don't want to read it all, scroll down to the line graph (Fig 3) to see their underlying trend

Conclusion:
Problems associated with internet survey models were quite modest

Telephone survey models were considerably further off the mark

‘Topline’ results from surveys are not enough. If observers had used the polling data as inputs to statistical models of the underlying dynamics of EU referendum vote intentions rather than risking being misled by the vagaries introduced by mode and house effects in successive individual polls, they might not have been surprised by the Brexit result.

High quality polls by reputable survey houses should be viewed as a key resource—not a substitute—for informed political analysis.

www.gove2016.co.uk

Just as preposterous and with a longer record of actual harm.

If push came to shove I'd probably take Leadsom over Gove. She's an opportunist with dubious credentials. He's an ideologist. I think he'd do even more harm.

Carney has done well since Brexit. He's the face of nstional stability right now.

But she called his probity into question to score political points.

He's an expert immigrant who is 'single handedly' saving the UK whilst all the politicians have fucked off and are fighting.
What do you expect?

I think that is the suggestion - set strict economic tests to be met before A50 is invoked then there is a legitimate reason to apply the brakes

Possibly, but I also think that we are well past that point with the economy screwed (and it will be felt that it was a deliberate forcing of the economy down by project fear. And there seems to be people who are still in complete denial that we now have an economic problem), plus I don't think it will wash - if for no other reason, that it was done before so people are wise to it.

If there is a 'fudge' - and I really am not sure there will be - it has to be something the public don't see coming and there therefore isn't a precedent to it. The main reason being that this helps to prevent challenges to it before the fact. It must be seen to be democratic or part of our normal process of democracy I think too.

I think even Brexiting will require some kind of 'fudge' though, simply because there are several different distinct and contradictory groups who roughly want different things in a Brexit. Something will need to be done to appease those who don't 'win'.

So I think we do have a political 'fudge' coming, but I don't know what that fudge will be and who is going to be the group disappointed. Just that there is an inevitability that someone will, and action will need to be taken to take the heat off that and prevent a backlash.

Whilst all the fingers are pointing at May saying she will do this, I think this unfair. Gove and Leadsom are certainly not immune to the fudge; they promised things and continue to promise things they can not possible deliver to everyone.

If push came to shove I'd probably take Leadsom over Gove. She's an opportunist with dubious credentials. He's an ideologist. I think he'd do even more harm.

Likewise. She incompetent.
He's just outright dangerous.

Though, I do say, that she's easy to influence and I worry about who will be doing this.

Yeah, imagine she gets in, has a moment of self-awareness, realises she needs guidance, and chooses Gove to manage her through the difficulties of Brexit.

I think Leadsom's essential hollowness points strongly to her being a puppet, frankly: a figurehead for the more appalling wing of the Leave alliance. A friend pointed this out, very forcefully, in conversation yesterday and I think she had a point.

I genuinely find it very odd, on a human level, to think about what sort of person might dissimulate so publicly and to such a degree. I know that we are a bit cynical but there is a risk that that cynicism can - oddly enough - lead to a great gullibility: "Oh, they are all the same" leads us to a situation where we fail to distinguish that, no, they are not all the same. Some of 'them' are genuinely dangerous. It's a kind of reality-disconnect. A disconnect which is still leading us to not look, full-on, at the damage this referendum result has caused, is causing, and will cause.

So, I suppose, I do stop and ask myself: what sort of person will be comfortable implying that they advised Mark Carney? And feels comfortable drawing on some possibly fantastical 'experience, of dubious reality, to call Carney a liar, during a campaign with real consequences?

And Gove ...

All great fun in a film but absolutely shocking if we actually hand the aeroplane of the UK over to her. I fear that the grassroots Tories will vote for her. I expect that the MPs are busy trying to get Gove on the ticket.

All good points

Yes. How likely is it that Gove, and even Johnson, would figure prominently in a Leadsom Cabinet?

It's depressing to think that the choice lies with the Conservative membership. I'm just hoping that the soft-Leavers and the Remainers come together to back May.

And I cannot believe I am hoping for May ...