Exactly one week on - happy 'leavers' how are we all feeling?

[Surferjet]

Wow what a week
I'm still walking on air & soooooo happy we're leaving, just want A50 triggered ASAP!

Those are just very short term predictions, what are your predictions 5 years from now, that would be much more useful to know

If you're so good at predictions why didn't you expect a leave vote and plan accordingly, ditto the experts, why didn't they prediction a leave vote?

Surfer jet I'm trying to see the 'bright side' please help. What about it is making you so chipper?

We were headed for recession anyway?

I don't think so, manufacturing data suggests a relative strength in that sector, financial sector was growing, unemloyment low, EU economies in recovery suggests not.

We have opted for this recession, it wasn't coming anyway.

Its easy to predict short term reactions to a shock, markets and currencies drop
What matters is how things pan out in the long run, how will the picture look when things stabilize

I voted leave because iin the long run, on balance we are better off out, the EU is a busted flush

Yeah small fox, your fault for not anticipating so many people would vote against a bright future despite being told of the consequences- and its your fault for not fixing it now with a plan.

This is the mentality we're dealing with here.

"If you're so good at predictions why didn't you expect a leave vote and plan accordingly, ditto the experts, why didn't they prediction a leave vote?"

Because it's hard to factor recklessness into predictions?

'If you're so good at predictions why didn't you expect a leave vote and plan accordingly, ditto the experts, why didn't they prediction a leave vote?'

I think most people underestimated the stupidity of the leavers. I genuinely thought it was blindingly obvious that we shouldn't leave the EU. I still can't see any logical reason to do so. It's been a massive shock for me.

And I believe the misapprehension that people would vote for the most sensible outcome was universal throughout the political world. That's why they have no idea how to rally now.

How do you stop a fire that was started to make things better?

Glass, I agree; the amazingly accurate predictions are what caused the £ to surge prior to the result weren't they?!

Lots of people so smug in their ivory towers that they failed completely to gauge the actual depth and breadth of feeling across the country.

Lots of 'clever people' that bet heavily on the £ as we were all going to vote to remain - because we are good turkeys.

I think most people underestimated the stupidity of the leavers.

And so it comes back round to 'the stupid'.

And you still, really truly don't get it.

Some leavers have legitimate concerns about the inequality gap, politicians being out of touch etc.

However they have bought into a phony "peoples revolution" campaign supported by Tory MP's and the right wing press.

Those deprived areas that voted out will now lose EU funding and expect a Tory government peddling austerity to bridge the gap. By the end of the year we will still have an elitist Tory government and possibly the return of a centre right Labour party. The elites are still winning, everybody else will get poorer.

The EU is not a busted flush, and again just saying things doesn't make it true.

Short term impacts then go on to cause long term impacts. Short -term the stalling investment effects our Long run growth and capacity, short term the loss of triple a rating makes our long term debt more expensive and means less funding for public services. Short term the fall in bank shares and house builder shares means less lending, less building of houses. Short term the loss of consumer confidnece means less consumption (65% of aggregate demand) and means less investment and futher redundancies. Short term fall in the value of the pound increases the cost of oil and other inuts, increasing the costs of manufaturing and transport. Leads to cost push inflation, causing consumer spending power to fall, further loss in consumption, redundancies etc. There is more but..

Compounding all of this is the fact that we do not know what trade deal we will have following brexit, we don not know what trade deal we will have with the 50 other countries following brexit. This uncertainty leads to lack of investment, effecting the economy in the short and the long run.

Don't make me platitudes on the short and long run, when blatantly you don't understand economics. Don't tell me about jam in ten years time when you then criticise others making much more nuanced and accurate predictions.

I'm sorry if you are offended, but it was stupid.

If I can be blithely told to just get a new job and stop moaning, I think you can be told that this decision isn't generally considered to have been very bright.

I'm afraid you are an ivory tower elite and mango moon likes to believe she is in the midst of a proletarian revolt.

Ho hum.

it's hard to factor recklessness into predictions?
Sort of nearly right, do some research on chaotic systems if you want to know more about why markets and history iin general can't be accurately predicted
Specifically level 2 chaotic systems

Outcomes dependent on multiple factors which interact in complex non deterministic ways

If you think accurate long term economic predictions can be made then you my friend don't know jack shit😂

I'm afraid you are an ivory tower elite and mango moon likes to believe she is in the midst of a proletarian revolt.

Do I?!

How charmingly dismissive & patronising of you!

Oh right this is the: " all the experts are wrong narrative."

Funny that they've been right so far.

hahah, funny that you seem to be making them and saying that things will be better isn't it.

Well I guess what I mean is that people are non-linear - you can't predict the number of people that just said fuck it, what could possibly go wrong.

If you think accurate long term economic predictions can be made then you my friend don't know jack shit

If that was to me, then nope, don't think I said that at all.

Nor are you my friend.

On the economic projections, why do we bother then? Why are there economists employed by every single major organisation in order to make projections and estimates.

never going to be 100% accurate, but far better than what the leavers have done which is just jump without looking.

Dismissive and patronising says the poster telling others to just get another job, and the experts so smug in their ivory tower!?!

Now That's dismissive.

And yet, at the same time, 'oh, the professionals will sort it out'

I'm not being patronising, you're talking out of your arse.

The think that is most irritating about these threads is this constant meme

Poster A "Some people who voted leave have shown themselves to be not very bright and/or xenophobic or racist"
Poster B "Hoe very dare you say 17 million people are all ignorant racists!!!!!!"

I can see why non-racist leavers will be pissed off at being lumped in with racists (or any comment that may suggest that they are), however they put their tick in the box favoured by racists and while they might not like being lumped in with racists, they certainly benefitted from their vote.

Leave would have lost without the racist vote and I guess that's something that they are struggling to reconcile themselves to.

"I can see why non-racist leavers will be pissed off at being lumped in wIth the racists"
Absolutely-so do I. But I do find the complete refusal to accept that there was a racist motive for some Leave votes frustrating, because those people have to be factored in to any future plans.