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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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areyoubeingserviced · 27/06/2016 11:20

Have I missed something?
When did Boris Johnson become the PM?
Spouting off about how Brexit will not have an adverse effect on EU citizens already resident or British people living in other European countries.
This Statesman like behaviour is really pissing me off. The man is an idiot.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 11:22

I would LOVE there to be a secret camera in the cabinet office this morning and for the video to be leaked on the internet.

Just how revealing would THAT be.

Coffeeismycupoftea · 27/06/2016 11:26

Boris has form for not interrupting leisure activities when duty calls - during the London riots he was holidaying in the Rockies.

He was an utterly crap mayor, he just didn't give a shit.

He will care, however, about being a pariah in his home city/borough/living rooms of 'metro elite'.

HalleLouja · 27/06/2016 11:35

I read this on FB and agreed with it. Was thinking DC was being "clever" by not resigning straight away. If he had resigned straight people would have understood. My DH thinks if he holds on and it all falls apart he might go for the PM role in the election.

Who knows what will happen. In a way the whole thing has got people more interested in politics. Well mainly the Bregretters....

areyoubeingserviced · 27/06/2016 11:38

Halle- the only positive thing about the whole referendum is the fact that people are interested in politics

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 11:41

Jamie Oliver trying to get #BuggerOffBoris trending....

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 11:57

Fucking hell, Jamie Oliver's really who you want sticking his oar in now!!

HalleLouja · 27/06/2016 12:09

beingserved unfortunately lots of people are getting interested after the vote.....

mouldycheesefan · 27/06/2016 12:12

Jamie Oliver is rated as the most influential non politicise in the uk.
However it's only Tory party meme ears who can vote for the leader. So 150,000 people get to choose our next PM.
Should we all join the Tory party so we can influence?

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 12:15

The Tory party are putting rules in place to stop a wave of people joining the Tory party to influence who gets elected.

HalleLouja · 27/06/2016 12:15

Mouldy I had considered that option....

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep · 27/06/2016 12:17

RedToothbrush "he's told Corbyn he has to do what he thinks is best."

Did he hand him a pearl-handled revolver as he said it? Smile

mouldycheesefan · 27/06/2016 12:18

Well let's hope Jamie Oliver's pleas are heard by the Tory party members who can vote then!

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 12:22

Wow - official Vote Leave website been taken down (with all history of speeches, claims etc) with note thanks, job done...
Telegraph article : "Osborne will be like Cameron and leave his mess for someone else to clean up."

Johnson has done it. Let's forget the past. Stuff swept nicely under carpet. Move along people, nothing to see here, everything's just fine.....

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 12:23

Link to website btw...
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org

Felascloak · 27/06/2016 12:33

Omg. It's like 1984. Even the thank you message has been placed to cover the pledge bus.
Shock

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 12:37

Oh I'm not worried. No one will let them forget. It's all been extensively discussed in many places, and the internet is forever.

InShockReally · 27/06/2016 12:38

On phone so not sure how to link but internet archive should have it?

InShockReally · 27/06/2016 12:38

What the fuck though.

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 12:39

I'm loving the twiter pics of Corbyn's new cabinet with him posing with a series of made up figures!

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 12:40

yes - I've joined labour to vote against Corbyn, perhaps I should join the tories - [then hell really would freeze over] but the logic is to vote for a centrist candidate so makes sense. Doesn't party member votes count for LESS with the tories than with labour though?

Mistigri · 27/06/2016 12:41

Wayback machine link:

web.archive.org/web/*/Www.voteleavetakecontrol.org

thecatfromjapan · 27/06/2016 12:42

RedToothBrush Do you think they confiscated mobile phones at the door? Grin

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 12:48

RedToothBrush Do you think they confiscated mobile phones at the door?

Yes! I really do think so.