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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 12:55

I started this thread, suggesting that one way of out manoeuvring him might be to join the Tory party to have a say in the replacement candidate and try to make sure it is anyone but him.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2671716-Never-imagined-favouring-George-Osborne-as-PM

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 13:01

It feels like voting for Fred West vs Peter Sutcliffe Sad

Mistigri · 27/06/2016 13:03

redtoothbrush that link is ... Extraordinary.

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 13:03

Obi

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 13:12

Maria and Angela Eagle have both gone from Labour cabinet now.

thecatfromjapan · 27/06/2016 13:21

The Sun is backing Johnson. Apparently, Osbourne's on-board. Guess that's what they spent the weekend doing. Priorities.

Bastards.

Alisvolatpropiis · 27/06/2016 13:21

Boris ans Gideon.

Wonderful.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 13:25

I know it sounds crazy to say "people will forget" but here's the run down of the papers today (no editing by me)

Daily Fail: Now a plot to block brexit (subtitle; bitter losers)
Independent: Corbyn rocked by cabinet (full page, no headlines on Tories or Leave)
Express: Dash to seal Bexit deal (sub: plan to scupper it by Remain)
Sun: Boris Backer (Boris for PM)
Mirror: Corbyn battle to remain
Star: football only
Guardian: Corbyn defiant / side piece " Firms plan to quit Uk" (no headlines on leave camp or Tories Angry )
Metro: Lights on but nobody's home (picture of parliament)
Ft: political turmoil

So judging by this, press not intending to hold Leave to account for absence of leadership or lift lid on Tory in fighting (other than Metro today)
Rational thought would say all this can't be forgotten but with the press behind him Johnson can just focus on spinning how great things are/will be.

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 13:28

with the press behind him Johnson can just focus on spinning how great things are/will be.

Yes.
It was ever thus.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 13:28

I wish the press would shut the fuck up about Labour's problems or at least dial it down a bit. Yes ordinarily it would be a big story but right now the focus on it just looks like a distraction tactic. What about the actual problems? A divided country, power vacum and a tanking economy?!

FFS

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 13:28

I know it sounds crazy to say "people will forget"

Not crazy at all. I am familiar with Icelandic politics.

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 13:32

I don't know ObiWan, I thought Faisal Islam laid into them pretty convincingly

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/faisal-islam-brexit-no-plan_uk_576fe22ee4b0d2571149cffd

Tanith · 27/06/2016 13:36

At least Jeremy Corbyn is trying to stay in his place and sort out the mess, instead of running away.

Londonmamabychance · 27/06/2016 13:37

Don't think Boris was expecting to win the Out vote. He was hoping it'd be a narrow Reamin, and then he could secure himself all the disgruntled out voters and promise to keep fighting for EU reform. Who, in their right mind, would want to be the person in charge of negotiating Brexit? It's going to be a nightmare. Don't think DC was actually in favour of leaving. After this, he's finished in politics. Why would he want that?

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 13:39

Corbyn is not doing PMQs today. Apparently he's too busy too.

Instead Angela Eagle is standing in for him.

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 13:43

The thing is Mitzy if Labour had just held it together for a couple of days, the press would have had nothing else to run with. It would have been blindingly obvious that no-one had a clue what to do next, or who was going to do it.

Labour have handed the Tories a massive diversion, the press will always go after what's easiest.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 13:44

I want to taser the whole fucking lot of them. Tory and Labour. A procession of fools.

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 13:46

I want to taser the whole fucking lot of them.

I think this is my favourite suggestion so far. As long as Jamie Oliver is in there too.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 13:50

Guardian feed:
A reader points out that, even if Jeremy Corbyn would not tell Chris Bryant how he voted in the referendum (see 11.19am), Corbyn did tell Twitter that he voted remain.

Ouch.

BBC parliament, has a 'statement about the referendum scheduled for 15:30 from the House of Commons.

So I'm guessing the cabinet will get going straight there after their punch up meeting.

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 14:09

Right wing press -

Adam Wagner has a really good analysis here, worth sharing:

rightsinfo.org/brexit-five-lessons/

Myself, I have wondered for a while now why we still give the print media so much prominence - for example, isn't it time to scrap the daily "What the papers say" section from the Today programme - and similarly across the BBC - not just because of the decline in the quality of print media since the days when lots of people were actually prepared to pay for it, but also given that what they say is only what their right wing masters tell them to say?

If the press is so biased, let's not give any of it it's special slot.

This is even more important given the disparity of party funding that is going to result from the changes introduced by the Trade Union Act 2016 - which, once implemented, are going to wipe £7million a year from Labour Party funding, while leaving conservative party funding - from hedge funds and "big business" etc - intact.

Badders123 · 27/06/2016 14:20

Kelvin Mackenzie regretting his vote now I see.....

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 14:26

www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/27/what-boris-johnson-said-about-brexit-and-what-he-really-meant

Hmmm Re: next PM, I've just seen something that makes me wonder about how popular Johnson is in the party.

Doing some reading between lines here, it looks like its going to be May v Johnson.

Further to that I think there are hints afoot that Johnson is not favoured by a lot of Tory MPs, and possibly the mood is that if he does win there would be more of a feeling of rebellion to go for a General Election.

Like I say, this is massive reading between the lines, but I don't think that everyone is happy with Boris on the backbenches by a long shot. And May does look she would be more difficult to attack on an article 50 revolt. So she would be very attractive to Pro-Brexit MPs.

todayitstarts · 27/06/2016 14:28

red
Angela Eagle has resigned now too. She was a great ally of his. He's fucked

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 14:30

Doesn't Johnson famously have a lot of bitter enemies in the Tory party? One was quoted this morning as saying they'd rather 'vote for a dead sheep'. I don't think we can underestimate how hated he is by some of his own.

So even if he does get the gig the some very sharp knives will be poised and ready to be plunged into his back from day one.

Which gives me some comfort.

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 14:35

Thanks for linking to that article, figment