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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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Chalalala · 27/06/2016 09:18

we were wondering if maybe Britain was complacent because they haven't had a dictatorship before and weren't able to see it coming. True there is worrying extremism of politics in mainland Europe with rise of far left and far right populism

as a continental myself, yes, I think Britain has been complacent. For years I've had British people ask me with great concern about the rise of the "far right" in France - but the Brexit movement is riding the exact same wave of dissatisfaction against globalisation and austerity, using the same scapegoat of immigration. The "EU has failed us all" poster is worse than anything the FN would dare do in France.

British politics have been protected by the FPPT system which hides unsavoury political minorities. The system makes it very difficult for far-right movements to get 20-30% of the votes, but it doesn't mean the same feelings aren't right there below the surface.

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 09:18

The likelihood is of a 'de facto' hard right Tory dictatorship ie a dictatorship in the sense that we have free elections, but the rules are designed so that the same party always wins.

Funnily enough charismatic dictators are very fond of referenda.

SpaceKablooie · 27/06/2016 09:20

LittleBear, I think you're right - Farage will be saying something or other at some point today. Oh joy.

And Yes, the ongoing relationship between Johnson et al and Farage will be interesting. They were happy enough to be bed fellows (even if only by ignoring each other?) when it suited them, but what about now?

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 09:22

Poor Faisal Islam has had looked into the yawning abyss, and lost the plot and can't articulate this in a meaningful way.

Which is not a very good thing to be saying about a journalist.

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 10:00

Really, a decent centrist labour leader, and the lib dems having a pact to form a joint govt on a pro-Remain ticket OUGHT to be able to wipe the floor in the FPTP GE system with a split Tory party and UKIP. They could offer Remain moderate leaning Tories the chance to cross to the 'coalition of sensible politicians' for the good of the country...the SNP would also back it.

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 10:01

Boris says everyone gets to stay:

"I think it’s very good news that the chancellor has come out and said some reassuring things to the markets and it’s clear now that Project Fear is over, there’s not going to be an emergency budget, people’s pensions are safe, the pound is stable, the markets are stable and I think that’s all very good news."

He also insisted that EU citizens currently living in the UK would not be forced to leave.

"The second point I want to make, because I’ve seen a lot of confusion over the weekend about the status of people living in this country; it’s absolutely clear that people from other European Union countries who are living here have their rights protected. All that people want to see is a system that’s fair, impartial and humane to all people coming from around the world. And also, obviously people from the UK living abroad, living in the rest of the EU, will also have their rights completely protected. I just worry there’s been a certain amount of confusion in the media over the last 24 hours."

To reporters outside his house. Was on the BBC news and Guardian blog.

So, is there anything from the campaign that he hasn't utterly rejected?

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 10:01

idk why Corbyn hasn't gone - I don't care that a lot of London labour voted for him, he's lost the North of England, he's a totally washed up in UK election terms. Surely he must understand that?

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 10:04

Also, Michael Heseltine had been dragged out of bed and was on the early morning BBC news, his opinion was that BJ, NF and Gove should be forced to negotiate a deal with the EU, which is then put to a second referendum, on the basis that if anyone else negotiates it, it won't appease the Leave voters.

I understand where he's coming from, but I'm not sure if it can be done given that the EU are saying no negotiations until A50 is triggered.

TheBathroomSink · 27/06/2016 10:07

I've just seen the latest list of who's resigning from what in Labour, and the only reaction I have is 'Who??'

Munch - he still gets a lot of support round here (northern) from old-time trade unionists and ex-miners. The problem is, there's a huge disconnect between him and the MPs - Labour is voted in regardless here, but the MP is held in such low esteem it is no surprise he never comes here!

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 10:15

Surprising really because Corbyn might have 'sound' views but he's never been a worker, he's spent his life mucking about in Islington posturing. I admit, I want a lib-lab remain ticket at the next election and I don't think Corbyn has enough centrist appeal, I'd struggle to vote for him. Anybody hoping Gordon Brown is up for running again?

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 10:19

I'd listen to Heseltine with caution.

He wanted to join the Euro and is one of the biggest Europhiles in politics. His word will not be respected by everyone.

He is trying to whip up support for a revolt in what he is saying, not necessarily saying there is enough support for one.

Plus as pointed out - all this talk of a deal can't happen without triggering A50.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 10:33

Tom Watson has asked Corbyn to go.

LineyReborn · 27/06/2016 10:38

I think Merkel needs to have a word with Juncker. If Juncker carries on being an apparently arrogant intemperate twat, he hands Johnson the perfect 'get out of the shit' card. 'See what I'm saving you all from?! Horrible British-hating overpaid bureaucrats like him.'

Now is the time for a little bit of finesse from Juncker and Tusk, not fighting talk. To quote top economist Madonna, 'we're in an awful mess' - so, Juncker don't preach.

kesstrel · 27/06/2016 10:38

Boris in his Telegraph article is now saying the Leave campaign wasn't really about immigration. I had a look at the comments below the Daily Mail article about what he said, and there are already plenty of outraged comments along the lines of "what does he mean, it wasn't about immigration!". This despite the Mail clearly trying hard to spin the article that he is just trying to smooth things over with Remain voters.

I suspect this really may be a poisoned chalice for Boris.

LineyReborn · 27/06/2016 10:38

Just having a look at that, Red.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 10:42

BBC now saying that Tom Watson says that a misquote and he's told Corbyn he has to do what he thinks is best.

Not that he should resign.

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 10:50

the EU's attitude all along has been part of the issue - they gave Remain nothing to fight with, and their FU attitude now is also really unhelpful to what was a very close result...

underrugsswept · 27/06/2016 11:03

Don't panic people, Boris the buffoon says everything is ok!

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 11:05

Love all the comments and the different areas this thread is exploring...

If I can just bore about media again .. I am still bemused with media focus on shadow cabinet unknowns resigning. JC has lots of other Unknown MPs to fill the gaps with. I understand holding onto him. He doesn't play well in London/media no. But he's the only chance of an integrity candidate. If he has any sense he'll unite some cross-party consensus and harness Tim Farron who has nothing to lose, frankly.

Cabinet meeting for first time today wtf? Why hasn't media been questioning how many actual cabinet members in Remain/Leave camps are under pressure to go or who is knifing who in back there and who is saying I can't do my job with the shitty stick you've given me.

By disappearing for the weekend, the torn apart Tories were actually smart... It's Labour who dominate news yet Tories must barely be able to be in same room together.

Rent-a-gob Farage not being on Tv for whole weekend? He's been bought off by BJ and crew, nice cushy Eu exit tsar or something, free drink vouchers included.

I'm really worried now, Johnson and his media chums are going to play this as plain sailing, spin everything as a win... Throw a few bones to the crowd about immigration and NHS money and meanwhile the media will concentrate on trying to get comedy pics of JC eating a bacon butty badly,
Coz that's what's important folks!

Johnson - making up fantasy policy on his doorstep now. I'm sure Eu countries are delighted to hear him committing to benefit rights of UK ppl in their countries

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 11:07

Munch how is that the EU's fault? Confused

In 20 years, I have never seen anyone saying anything positive about the EU, even when it DID a lot of good (eg protecting human rights or giving a lot of financial help to areas that were economically 'struggling', ie the NE or Wales or Liverpool etc etc). If politicians here wanted to say something positive about it, they could have done so.

It's not the EU role to convince the UK to stay. IT's up to the UK to embrace the fundamental ideas coming with being part of the EU and having the wish to build something together.

The 'you can't have your cake and eat it' comes to mind.

peachpudding · 27/06/2016 11:09

OMG have you seen who JC is 'promoting' to the shadow cabinet. Labour is turning into the monster raving loony party.

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 11:12

the EU's attitude all along has been part of the issue - they gave Remain nothing to fight with, , and their FU attitude now is also really unhelpful

well, nothing except for giving the UK rebates, exceptions and opt-outs than no other EU country has ever obtained...

the UK was always treated as a special snowflake, and yet it still walked out in a huff, creating a huge mess for everyone else. There are no warm and fuzzy feelings towards it right now. And this is not just the view of Brussels bureaucrats, it's very much a widespread view across the continent.

Now it's no longer the EU's job to be helpful to Britain, EU countries have to do what's best for them and for the EU first, and if a hardline FU attitude is what they think is best for the EU, then too bad for Britain.

all we can do is hope that they decide that a hardline attitude is not in their interest after all. Maybe, maybe not - there are arguments on both sides.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 11:13

Obi it is totally true that Johnson knows how to use the press in a way that no other politician has done before.
And actually that's really worrying because the press doesn't seem to have woken up to that yet.
They could easily have decided to make a huge fuss about the fact that the Tories and BoJo had disappeared over the weekend and how going to play cricket at the weekend when the coutnry is such a state is NOT appropriate. Well not for the person who was leading the leave campaign anyway.

JassyRadlett · 27/06/2016 11:19

If he has any sense he'll unite some cross-party consensus and harness Tim Farron who has nothing to lose, frankly.

Yes but would he? He's chucked away all chances to try to unify his own party, let alone others.

GoudyStout · 27/06/2016 11:20

Boris says the markets are stable? So he hasn't spotted another 4% being wiped off the FTSE 250 this morning then?

I'm starting to think he must have taken a cricket ball to the head.