First Brexit employment casualties

[Stopyourhavering]

dd graduated this week, happy times.....phoned this morning to say that 2 of her friends, who had also graduated ( business/law degrees) and been offered jobs had been telephoned by their prospective employers to say that because of Brxit, they were now basing their headquarters in Berlin rather than UK and would no longer be employing them......I fear this is just the start....I am so angry and upset for our youth. My ds and dd2 are so angry and feel betrayed....I wish 16 &17 year olds had been given a vote as I feel they had a better handle on the repercussions of Brexit

I could be wrong but I don't think that's based on worst case:

-Contraction of 1% in 2017 is probably a relatively low assumption, but by no means extreme IMO.
-4% below GDP forecasts by end 2018 seems about right for a moderate forecast, I think previous forecasts were around 2% growth year on year so that's (roughly!) expecting a flatlining overall which is not that ott. 6% down by 2020 suggests we start seeing a little growth again after about 2018, just not as much as predicted. I haven't dug into his numbers so their starting growth figures might be a bit different and I'm being very rough.
-EEA minus deal is probably below the baseline which a lot of companies/economists are using as AFAIK a fair few have EEA as a sort of baseline. But, it's by no means worst case. Worst case looks something like Eurozone falls apart and so does the UK, and we have a WTO style deal.

Sadly these city types pay alot of tax which supports the NHS and benefit systems etc. So feeling glee that this sector of society will be taking a hit is extremely short sighted and we'll does say lots about those supporting leave.
This thread is extremely worrying and sad for the country in general and especially for those already so badly affected personally.
The sheer amount of denial in the leave camp is shocking. Guess it is better though than admitting you were duped or made a protest vote.

Worst case looks something like Eurozone falls apart and so does the UK, and we have a WTO style deal.

That's true I suppose, though that's not a realistic case at the moment. I hope :-/

I hope not and I'd put the probability of that level of all out calamity fairly low! There's a fair few variants in between - WTO but Europe intact, some sort of bilateral, Canada style deal, plus versions of each with Scotland in, our, or doing the hokey frikking cokey. And of course there's Northern Ireland too which seems to get forgotten about - realistically it would probably have less of an impact economically than Scotland leaving but the peace process disintegrating in any form would be uber shit.

I think the smart money still has to be on a simple EEA agreement (once we are in recession, and immigration falls naturally, allowing the government to look as if it's doing something without moving a muscle).

The problem at the moment is that even if we don't really leave, some of the damage will already have been done. I don't recall anyone envisaging a situation in which we don't actually leave, but the economy reacts as if we have.

Email from my CEO this week:

Recruitment freeze
Training cuts
Pay reviews deferred until June next year

I work in an industry dependant on a stable economy, whether in or out of the EU. The uncertain world we are currently in is affecting me now. It could worsen if the economy reacts further.

I think White's predictions about political fallout are understated too.
I agree with him that UKIP will put a lot of pressure on Labour in any upcoming general election. I think if the Leave vote doesn't see much positive change arising from this referendum there will be mob action.

I would be less worried about Northern Ireland descending into chaos than I would be about England. NI voted 56/44 to remain, and since the fateful day there has been much cross border discussion, plus a few indications that NI parties are using their heads in this situation - a statement from Ian Paisley Jr about signing constituents' applications for Irish passports, McGuinness was rebuked by Fianna Fail for grandstanding (border poll suggestion in the immediate aftermath); the parties are by all appearances doing the maths, realising Westminster is blithely unaware of their existence (this is the normal state of affairs, but holding a referendum apparently without regard for the EU framework of the Good Friday Agreement was shocking) and is figuring out the best way to pull through this together. NI has enjoyed an economic improvement as a result of peace and enough people have benefited from that on all sides to make a resurgence of turmoil look unattractive.

However, the marching season is almost upon us and we shall see what that brings.

I suspect the performance of UKIP at the last GE had something to do with the stupid decision to hold this referendum - maybe the narrative Cameron had in mind was to steal some of UKIP's anti-EU thunder but still come away with a tidy Remain vote that would leave him going down in history as the PM whose astute judgement saw the UK through two referenda unscathed, set back UKIP's anti-EU platform for a few elections, while at the same time giving UKIP and the complaints about immigration enough media exposure to encourage inroads into Labour areas still angry with Blair.

I think he underestimated the sheer ugliness (visible in the comments in the Independent) though he shouldn't have, given that the Leave campaign pandered so strongly to it, and given that the Tories themselves have fomented resentment of anything and everything as a means of winning elections for decades. They are UKIP-lite.

I think they may all have nurtured a force that has gathered a momentum all of its own and is poised to accelerate out of anyone's control.

There are enough knowns to make for grim forecasts. And if there are enough unknowns that we know about, plus unknown unknowns we can only guess about, then we can safely make very grim forecasts indeed, because uncertainty is itself a known that has a knock on effect.

I think they may all have nurtured a force that has gathered a momentum all of its own and is poised to accelerate out of anyone's control.

I fear that you are right, especially in a situation where the only effective opposition is a nationalist one.

but holding a referendum apparently without regard for the EU framework of the Good Friday Agreement was shocking

Agree. And it's this sort of shocking lack of thought that has made me so angry - what were they thinking?

I am also angry about the NI impact.

I am annoyed by the schadenfreude displayed at the prospect of our financial services declining significantly. That industry is one that fuels employment up and down the country, from nannies, cleaners, security to printers, shopa and yes, some bankers.

Then there is the tax the industry pays which funds the NHS, education and the social welfare bill. Receive child allowance? That'll be part funded by the financial services too.

Huge own goal basically.

Agree totally re the schadenfreude, it's so absurdly short sighted. I don't work in London, but ime financial services around here isn't filled with people from wealthy backgrounds either- there are some, of course, but most are just very ordinary people being able to earn a half decent wage and have better working conditions than they'd get in many other industries. The vast majority of people in FS go no bloody where near investment banking, trading, LIBOR fixing or anything else.

It's bizarre how much shadenfrauede there is. The person who runs the cleaning company I use was particularly gloaty about the result until I told her that we would be (already have been) directly affected and need to cut hours in anticipation of things becoming worse. It was like she had no comprehension whatsoever of the trickle down effect. Decorators were similarly jubilant and stated that they wouldn't be affected because "people are not going to stop having their front room painted because we're out of Europe" right before I said that we would need to postpone having our living room decorated. It really needs doing but it's low priority atm if we might lose an income.

I've noticed a fair number of people seem to just outright deny the trickle down effect altogether, as if industries exist in isolation and if you tear a great big hole in one of the largest (and relatively well paying) then it will have no impact on others.

Yay, BILL has halted building work on his extension because of lost contracts and less money coming in. Builders in the area where he lives have seen a lot of cancelled jobs since last Friday as people have now become worried about possible redundancy (SE commuter belt). These are people who use a lot of frontline services such as cleaners, nannies, gardeners, decorators etc.

We'd measured up for our building work, only two weeks ago - in fact DH asked builder how he's vote (leave, because of immigration). Now I'm even telling my DD not to order two pairs of shorts in the urban outfitters sale because she doesn't really need them - Building work is long gone.

I'm on the train btw - on my way to the London demonstration. I've never been to a demonstration before and I'm not sure it will make a difference, but I feel it's my Iraq war - I have to do something to stop feeling so helpless.

Mathanxiety - very well articulated

Fig

Hope the demo goes well.

Demo was good fun actually and very stress relieving! I surprised myself as I'm not normally the demonstrating type. I have put a little report on the 'demo - what demo' thread someone has started in case you are interested! Won't repeat myself.

I think if the Leave vote doesn't see much positive change arising from this referendum there will be mob action

People seem to be expecting an immediate outcome.

Most leavers seem to think they've got rid of Brussels completely. How are they going to react when they grasp that an EEA trade model is basically just EU lite? The Brussels regulations, the financial contributions, the free movement, with no power to influence the decisions.

If May gets in she may never action Brexit - but she's going to have to be very tough for the reaction within her party, within the country. If she goes for an EEA model - ditto.

If Leadsom is voted in by Telegraph readers - then surely we're in for hardcore Brexit, leaver jubilation, & trade model LaLaland.

She thinks we're going to "set up tariff free trade with the 80% of the world that is not in the single market"; and "our friends in the EU will need, for the sake of their own jobs and businesses, to continue to trade tariff free with us." Within two years. CETA took 7 years and counting.

We don't need the single market of course.

And she seems convinced we'll get regulatory equivalence for financial services including passporting rights, but noises from Brussels makes that questionable. She doesn't seem bothered if we don't: "most large financial services businesses either already have a subsidiary in another member state or could quickly and cheaply create one".

She seems a lot more concerned with losing immigrants than Scotland and NI.

So Cameron gambled on a bit of glib gesture politics to squash the Eurosceptics & boosted them instead. He put short term management of his party - and you may be right UKIP too - ahead of the country's welfare and indeed its integrity.

Forgive me the daft question, but with talk of all these trade deals with the rest of the non EU world, what does the UK export that the rest of the world would want? I can imagine the U.S. being gleeful they can impose the TTIP (aka Tory wet dream) on the UK unfettered by the EU, but what does the UK have that can be exported to them and the likes of APAC? Petroleum probably not as the US has cheaper locally sourced and the distance woul make it unprofitable for the farer flung countries; cars probably not either as the auto manufacturers will probably move out of the UK into mainland Europe once acces to the EU is cut off (with the exception of Aston Martin), so what is there left? There is a very small manufacturing base left in the UK and most is for luxury goods like whisky and the aforementioned Aston Martins. I was under the impression UK wealth was built on tertiary services, with financial services a large part and that is potentially on shaky ground now.
Basically the question is, it was very nice of NZ to say they were willing to cut a favourable deal, but what would they actually be buying that they couldn't source more cheaply in other APAC countries? Am I missing something?

I think that sums it up very well Izlet.

Oh dear. 😱

Only hope is that referendum result is overturned / ignored in an offical capacity asap

Otherwise we're all f"#d and anyone who doesn't agree is either in denial or ignorant of the bigger picture

Well, there is this petition I got sent. It's to lobby parliament not to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act which would be the gateway to auctioning Article 50. It was set up by a law professor at MMU. Might be worth signing?

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/140378

Actioning, not auctioning.