First Brexit employment casualties

[Stopyourhavering]

dd graduated this week, happy times.....phoned this morning to say that 2 of her friends, who had also graduated ( business/law degrees) and been offered jobs had been telephoned by their prospective employers to say that because of Brxit, they were now basing their headquarters in Berlin rather than UK and would no longer be employing them......I fear this is just the start....I am so angry and upset for our youth. My ds and dd2 are so angry and feel betrayed....I wish 16 &17 year olds had been given a vote as I feel they had a better handle on the repercussions of Brexit

Yes it's only the HQ.

Passporting rights depend on the single market & without those rights there will have to be some relocation across financial services.

As no-one has any fucking idea what's happening and we can't stay in this state of uncertainty, banks will have to assume the worst and restructure/relocate according to that.

Comment on London passporting on the Reuters website:

Applying for a new banking licence in European cities can be a long and arduous process. And bankers do not expect to be allowed to set up "letter box" or "brass plate" entities in a European jurisdiction while continuing to carry out most of the work in London.

Rather, European Central Bank supervisors will demand full details on business plans, capital and liquidity projections, and legal structures - and will want the names of those expected to run the operations. Those plans will determine the type of licence granted in a process that could take 6-12 months.

And (from Simon Gleeson at Clifford Chance):

"Banks will be under pressure from their clients to demonstrate that they are restructuring themselves in order to continue to be able to provide services. That probably doesn't allow them to maintain a wait-and-see posture for any extended period. Thus we expect banks to execute restructuring fairly soon based on 'worst case' analysis of the possible outcomes of the exit negotiations."

Comment Paris espèrent profiter du Brexit

On va voir.

The banks would rather not put a lot of staff in France or Germany because of the restrictive labour practices (laws, unions, cultural practices.) Dublin has an outside chance, and if Scotland can move quickly to stay inside the EU, the banks would lurch to Edinburgh in a shot. (Just my own humble opinion and speculation.)

But I agree that Paris would look more attractive than Frankfurt from an employee point of view. A bigger more exciting city to live in.

Paris would also make it possible for the (richer) bankers to commute from
London if they wanted and provided they didn't gave to queue too long at the nonEU passport lines .....always assuming they can get work permits

Heard a colleague saying that Goldman has been letting a few people go. Can anyone confirm?

A pre Brexit warning from GS.

'Richard Gnodde, the co-head of the investment banking division of Goldman Sachs said, that “every outcome is possible” when asked if the bank plans would involve moving some of its employees to Eurozone cities in the wake of the EU referendum.'...
...'As we have already communicated to our employees, there is no immediate change to the way we conduct our business or where we conduct our business,” a spokesperson for Goldman Sachs said in an emailed statement.'

So if I worked for Goldman I think I would be wondering where I would be living next year.

Gasping at the comments under that article.

What has got a hold of people?

mathanxiety

It's a terrible state of affairs. I've been reading more and more comments like the one beneath that Independent article, and have been astonished at the bitter jealousy there is hidden inside people. I really don't think I want to stay in this country anymore.

The comments are interesting- I've noticed that some brexiters on mumsnet have just started to argue this way too- we can expect to see the brexit vote reframed not as a nation blindly following millionaires to disaster but a proletariat revolution against big business.

Gasping at the comments under that article.

What has got a hold of people?

That's what frightens me most. There would be some way out of this mess if people recognised they had been lied to, but instead they are seeing it as a great victory. Tory dithering has allowed momentum to gather - soon it won't just be the EU pushing for the triggering of article 50.

Mm the average person doesn't like to see themselves as racist or duped or whatever: they will much prefer to see themselves as anti-bankers (never mind that wasn't what the ref was about and the banks employ hundreds of thousands of 'average' people- logic wont come into it)

What has the populist media done to our collective IQ?

Can anyone explain to me why the markets are rising again? Is this profiteering off the back of the fall in the pound? Or can we expect a slow decline once the impact of contract freezes and job losses are felt?

cosmic

It's only the FTSE 100 that is rising. The 100 consists mainly of international companies - 70% of the revenues of FTSE 100 companies derive from outside the UK. These companies, like my employer, who earn primarily in dollars and euros, will see a boost to their sterling revenues due to the pound's fall.

In addition, these companies have a lot of overseas investors who think not in sterling but in dollar terms. In dollar terms, the FTSE 100 is down quite sharply and there are perceived buying opportunities.

This explains why we got a bounce yesterday afterr Carney's speech. Basically he was saying that interest rates are likely to fall, because the real economy (ie not the markets, but real companies and individuals making investment and purchasing decisions) is in trouble. This means further falls in sterling. The FTSE 100's rise yesterday was partly a bet on more sterling weakness.

The FTSE 250 is a better guide to expectations about what the UK economy will do. It's down.

Thanks. Someone on my Facebook is sounding off about how strong the markets are and how it shows worries about the economy are misplaced. He must be looking at the FTSE 100 as well.

There really needs to be an Economics 101 video so that wrong information like this doesn't take root. This is the problem when people don't trust experts. They'll believe any old guff.

It's also worth noting that the FTSE 100 is back up when measured in GBP - which of course has fallen in value compare to other countries. If you look at it in a more stable currency e.g. dollars then it is still down.

As Mistigri says, for the UK the 250 is a much better indicator.

I'm sad to say... re. those comments... no one will ever be able to set them right. They're the stubborn sorts who will continue to drive a square peg in a round hole just because they don't want to be seen as "wrong".

Sort of reminds me of my mum a bit - I remember when I was little, she thought BMW stood for "British Motor Works" , and she had a massive argument with my dad because of it. The more you told her she was wrong, the more she was convinced she was right. She gets a little annoyed, if any of us mention this even now (30 yuears later!). Bless her, she didn't know much about cars.

P.S.: My mum improved with age.

There is literally no point in arguing with the economics illiterates, they are too ignorant to even realise the depth of their ignorance.

Carney was obviously concerned about the prospects for the real economy yesterday, and he's in a position to judge. We'll see the effects coming through in the indicators in due course.

Sadly I think that's pretty true, there seem to be a lot of people who don't understand that this is going to affect a lot more than banker wankers in the south east

I work in a finance/economics role and our projections aren't exactly cheery bedtime stories. The basic story was that every scenario led to a weaker UK economy and a long term reduction in growth - not just over the next few years.

I did like the way that Carney pointed out that it wasn't just him - it was the 15 other people on the two committees involved who'd made the projections (and are having to deal with the fall out).

Quite apart from the fact that BoE is now independent, it was the implication that you couldn't just "sack" all of them - which had been the implication of the question, as Gove had called for Carney's sacking during the Campaign, because he disagreed with his forecasts and claimed it was only because he'd worked for Goldman Sachs previously

Cos god forbid the Governer of the Bank of England should have had a career in, erm, banking...

Gove is a wally!

Yeah, but Carney is an expert and we know Gove's views on experts.

In other news, here is a little gem from another thread where someone explains one of the reasons why they voted Leave:

But I would love the city to lose passorting rights on financial services, as that would damage the city which in the long term is a good thing for ordinary people who get swept up in the city culture.