First Brexit employment casualties

[Stopyourhavering]

dd graduated this week, happy times.....phoned this morning to say that 2 of her friends, who had also graduated ( business/law degrees) and been offered jobs had been telephoned by their prospective employers to say that because of Brxit, they were now basing their headquarters in Berlin rather than UK and would no longer be employing them......I fear this is just the start....I am so angry and upset for our youth. My ds and dd2 are so angry and feel betrayed....I wish 16 &17 year olds had been given a vote as I feel they had a better handle on the repercussions of Brexit

Goudy
I'm not a massive fan of capitalist structures but that comment makes my blood run cold. There are ways and means of redistributing wealth, Brexit is not one of them.
'Holds head in hands'

cosmic that's why i kept my money in my FTSE 100 tracker instead of selling back to sterling, which a lot of people I know have done. I came to the conclusion too that most of FTSE 100 are big multinationals with lots of earnings overseas. (Btw, an example of a UK company reporting in dollars or euros is Vodafone). To me, it means it's safer than sterling in the case of a economic down turn.

And I'm not someone really buying or selling shares. I just have a month investment.

BTW, I trust Carney. Google his credentials. I don't rank myself as an expert at all. (Unless you ask about computers)!

Also, still hearing this business of "they sell more to us than we do to them" - although not quite as confidently as before.

What I am not clear of is, however - how can they assume that the UK consumer will still be in the market for BMWs etc if the pound keeps falling and jobs start to go?

(even before you think about how much the imported component parts cost).

I'm not an economist though!

Helmetbymidnight Fri 01-Jul-16 07:29:07
"The comments are interesting- I've noticed that some brexiters on mumsnet have just started to argue this way too- we can expect to see the brexit vote reframed not as a nation blindly following millionaires to disaster but a proletariat revolution against big business"

So why didnt that revolution happen at last years general election or the one six years ago. How come the Tories got in TWICE in a row if thats the case.

Also more voters voted in this referendum than in the election and we know the Tories are the party of big business so why didnt more of them get their arses to the polling booth last year.

Sounds to me like these Leave voters either voted Tory at the general election or didnt vote at all.

Either way the excuses and quick rewriting of history doesnt wash

What i meant was why didnt more people get their arses to the polling booth last year to vote for other parties if they wanted to protest against big business.

Protest and tactical voting doesnt work when there are only two choices ......Remain or Leave

Jeez that comment is horrendous. Do they they think that they'll be happier just because there will be fewer wealthy people to be jealous of? Do they not understand how many people are employed directly by financial services, and then indirectly?

Re business - overall I think it's true but our purchases are split (unevenly) over the whole EU, whereas our sales are all ours. The figures I've seen had Belgium as the worst affected, with us accounting for about 7.5% of their national gdp. Germany was only about 2.5ish

I've just started following Alex White on Twitter. Does analysis for the Economist Intelligence Unit. I don't know if he's right or a good person to follow etc but he did about 20 tweets about what might happen over next 10 years or so and it was grim.

Here is first one: twitter.com/alexwhite1812/status/748194632295649280

What do you finance-y people think?

Head Have you looked into crypto currency? My partner puts most of his money into Ether. He was a big fan of BitCoin until it crashed b

Doesn't look far off to me - I wouldn't necessarily have made quite such clear guesses on the political fall out (although I broadly agree) but on the economics side he's pretty close to what we're thinking at work.

Oof those Alex white projections - saying what we all fear.

WaitroseTrolley I am depressed enough as it is. That is truly grim.

Waitrose - His forecasts look justified to me, except 8% decline in investment. I think that decline will be more substantial.

His predictions of political turmoil are nicely understated.

My FB friend are trying to talk positively of a left revival. I think they're having a laugh- the idea of having to pay more tax out of our dwindling finances to support the people of Sunderland who chose 'freedom' over Nissan or in Wales who chose 'taking back control' over eu money is...unthinkable at the moment.

I think that was only an 8% decline for 2017 though - didn't project beyond that. I agree it could be higher but it could also be 8% decline in 2017, another 8-10% in 2017 and so on. Which would add up mighty quickly.

8-10% in 2018 even

I think we will see a much higher decline for investments in 2017.

Contracts for many projects due to start next year are already cancelled.

Alex White

ON THE MONEY.
Unfortunately.

Oh fuck. Thanks for your input everyone though.

I think you should look at forecaster's previous forecasts before taking them too seriously. Economic forecasting has a very poor track record ($200 oil anyone now?).

Just reading Alex White's (inter Ali's) April 2016 report 'Europe stretched to the limit'...not v bullish on Europe. Free to download, makes interesting reading.

I prefer to trust the sage of Omaha: 'be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy'.

To be fair, the $200 a barrel oil forecast from Goldman Sachs was back in 2008 before fracking came onstream in North America - fracking wells are considerably cheaper to drill and operate than conventional wells, and operators can respond quickly to a rise in oil prices to meet demand (which then drives down prices).

Good economic forecasting is about understanding the range of possible scenarios and outcomes which you're never really going to get in a tweet. But his analysis doesn't sound unreasonable as a kind of baseline scenario with a range of possible outcomes distributed around it.

Goudy,

Absolutely, but that is the thing. There are so many unknown unknowns ( in the immortal words of don rumsfeld) that it is hard to make meaningful forecasts.

Check out the forecasts the day after we left the erm...gloom and doom everywhere, followed by a huge boom. Or the beginning of the first gulf war when we were going to have high priced oil for years etc.

When I traded I was lucky enough to be given presentations by some of the top economists in the city. They would always sound absolutely convincing, even when their forecast was the polar opposite of the convincing forecast you heard the previous day.

I saw those tweets by Alex White and while I think his views are worth serious consideration, from what I understand it seems to be based on some worst case assumptions. This may be right but it's a brave step for a forecaster (speaking as a forecaster myself - not a macro one happily).