What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

[LikeDylanInTheMovies]

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

The phone polls nearly all have Remain in the lead and nearly all online polls have Leave in the lead.

So it was 45% Leave, 44%Remain, 9% Undecided in that poll.

I did an online yougov poll earlier, I guess for publication tomorrow.

Plus that same polster poll a few days ago had it at exactly evens

squoosh I really think we should start a John Curtice fan club. It would have at least two members .

Speaking of which, I will be watching for an update on the poll of polls here

Remain odds just drifting slightly whilst Leave are shortening.

Possibly on the basis on that last poll? Or something more?

Red Maybe because there is usually a run on one side on polls the day before.

It hasn't happened here.

The poll of polls has been updated. It's exactly the same - R51% L49%

Hmm, think the remains might have it then, the don't knows will mainly vote remain I think.

Problem is don't knowsee don't always vote.

There has also been a split in methodology. All phone polls done havery remain in the lead and all online polls apart from one have had leave in the lead.

There will be a margin of error in the polls too. So really it will be plus or minus a percentage. I have no idea what this is but it will have to take into account the people polled being a non representative sample, turnout and a whole load of other stuff.

Mathematically it is impossible to tell whether Leave or Remain is in front when it is 51/49 because taking into account uncertainties the polls are saying Leave 49 to 53% and Remain 47 to 51% if the uncertainty is 2% each way and in reality it could be more than that as explained here

What to watch for tonight after the polls close:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/referendum-night-when-to-nap-and-the-results-to-watch

Brexit Map and the 24 '50:50 bellweather' areas to watch with estimated declaration times.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-results-what-are-they-when-will-they-be-announced-latest-live-brexit-remain-leave-a7095441.html

Merthyr Tydfil - 1.30am
Salford - 1.30am
Denbighshire - 2.00am
Hart - 2.00am
Malvern Hills - 2.00am
Wrexham - 2.00am
Caerphilly - 2.30am
Milton Keynes - 2.30am
St Helens - 2.30am
Chesterfield - 3.00am
County Durham - 3.00am
Enfield - 3.00am
Epsom and Ewell - 3.00am
Torfaen - 3.00am
Welwyn Hatfield - 3.00am
West Berkshire - 3.00am
Wirral - 3.00am
Lancaster - 3.30am
Newport - 3.30am
Preston - 3.30am
South Hams - 3.30am
Sutton - 3.30am
Taunton Deane - 3.30am
Three Rivers - 3.30am

Trading so far this morning:

Although the pound has risen today, we should note that trading is pretty thin.

And traders will be trading blind until after 10pm tonight, when the polls close and we get an on-the-day poll from YouGov. (Note this is NOT an exit poll but a poll done late yesterday but due to be published at 10pm)

Yujiro Goto, currency strategist at Nomura, explains:

“If polls after the vote closes suggests that “Leave” is in front, then we could see sterling drop. These are very challenging conditions.”

Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, says traders seem to be influenced by the odds on offer at the bookmakers:

“Although most recent polls swayed toward the remain camp in the last couple of days, the lead is still very narrow, which doesn’t explain the surge in pound.

However, the markets are being completely reliant on the predictions from the bookies, which strongly expect “remain” to win the referendum.”

As discussed before, if that voice in the back of the bookies head's is right....

Still all sounding very high risk tbh.

I thought there weren't going to be any exit polls?

I really dread waking up tomorrow morning

Me too Chalalala. Because whatever the result is, this won't be over.

Can someone clarify the exit question? I thought no exit poll at 10pm, following the GE result, which is why we won't know what the outcome will be until the morning.

The best result may actually be a really clear win for either side, 55%+. Then at least we can move on, and deal with the consequences as best we can.

Because if it's really, really close either way, the following years aren't going to be pretty.

The reason I head for the lack of exit polls was that the methodology they use for GE doesn't work in a referendum... not sure about the details though

The best result may actually be a really clear win for either side, 55%+. Then at least we can move on, and deal with the consequences as best we can.

Unless it is a huge huge win then issues bought by this aren't going to go away.

Jamie Reid MP has talked about this on his twitter feed. It is a complex issue. A few good guardian pieces about it too.

Re exit polls. There are none for publications. Some private organisations (banks) have organised exit polls, but these won't be made public. The final YouGov poll is not an exit poll but a late poll of voting intention.

Some private organisations (banks) have organised exit polls, but these won't be made public.

So can we expect the markets to give us an indication of the results of the private polling?

(thanks for the answer, btw!)

Chalalala, yes and no.

If there is a CLEAR indication that one side is winning or not on the private exit polls, then you would expect to see movement in the markets later today. Up would tend to suggest remain, Down would tend to suggest leaving

HOWEVER

If there is no clear lead emerging in the private polling, then you would expect the markets to perhaps start getting jittery anyway, and perhaps go down due to the uncertainty. So a move down does not necessarily indicate a leave lead.

My understanding is that the hedge funds (pensions) are poorly prepared for a leave result as they didn't think it would be this close, and this is a real worry. Also, they are expecting very heavy trading later tonight regardless - they have called in back up and have disabled automatic computerised trading just in case. The cash machines have been filled to the top as well as. Just in case.

Its all VERY VERY nervous and cautious at the moment.

Of course, what could also happen is that a move in the markets before the polls close could also influence voting - particularly whether people go to the polls at all if movement is seen as an indicator of the result. (And then this could completely cock up all predictions and polling!).

So whilst looking at the markets is interesting I would still exercise a huge amount of caution with it.

It is a very different situation to a General Election.