Tories ditching Cameron?

[Spinflight]

A friend of mine who is a membership secretary for for local conservative association tells me she has received some interesting communications from head office.

She is to ensure that her membership list is current and up to date, and that all contact details are correct.

She thinks this is to prepare for a leadership election, on which the wider membership gets to choose between two candidates who have themselves been chosen by tory MPs.

Well if the referendum is out I imagine DC would have to resign.

An in vote would probably buy DC some time before he is ousted in the same manner as Thatcher.

DC is an idiot who is responsible for this situation..... He made his own bed, he can lie in it. I think a lot of grassroots Tories want him gone

Whatever the outcome, I'd expect a monumental upheaval within UK government over the coming 12 months and a hangover from all that comes with that.

I do believe this is why currency tanking, capital outflows and equity movement is so big right now...UK is seen a surprisingly unstable place to invest in irrespective of whether it stays in EU or not.

Been circulating for a couple of weeks. 1922 committee aren't happy. Regardless of who wins.

There is a growing possibility of a general election before Christmas too.

That's very interesting to know. It must be so complicated in the Conservative party machine just now, with all this going on. I'm tempted to join up just to be on their mailing list. :-)

I'm going to obviously, because my conscience would catch fire.

Hope so, this is the best news ive heard all week.

Cameron has said he wouldn't serve the term anyway. Even if he wins the referendum I can see him plotting his exit fairly quickly.

not going to

Yes I would love to see a general election particularly. Not that keen on DC handing over to Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. That would be a bit scary.

Doubt it would trigger a general election.

If we vote to leave though we've sent a clear message that the old guard of pro EU apparatchiks which make up the rump of our executive are no longer wanted or needed.

Kinnock, Blair, Brown,, Mandelson et al would be yesterdays men, without even mentioning a tory.

I'm quite interested in Corbyn's position here..

www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10133/jeremy_corbyn/islington_north/divisions?policy=1065

Seems he has either voted against or been absent ( a lot!) when important votes on further EU integration take place. Always no on the big votes though..

He seems to be playing a dangerous game. His voting record suggests a deep Eurosceptic who has avoided voting on many issues.

"two candidates who have themselves been chosen by tory MPs"

What about others who'd like to stand for party leader? I can certainly think of potential candidates who I'd prefer to see than the most obvious two.

How would the two candidates be chosen by the MPs, and on what grounds will there be only two?

Many can stand but it is the MPs who vote to whittle the number down.

Once 2 remain the wider membership of the tory party votes by postal ballot for the preference.

Hence having up to date membership lists and contact details is important.

Doesnt it trigger a general election now if the pm changes?

The party would continue under a different leader Bombadier. It's the party people, well some people, voted for, not the person.

Hopefully in the next election the tories will declare all their election expenditure, not holding my breath though...

Think Blair handing over to Brown.

I don't even recall a labour leadership election for that one.

What they are planning is a revolt forcing him to resign or go for a Vote of No Confidence (this is triggered under Conservative Party rules if 50 or more back benchers in the 1922 committee ask for it).

A vote of no confidence means he would face a vote to get rid of the government from the entire house of commons. If the vote succeeds a general election is called.

It depends on whether Cameron would fall on his sword or thing he could ride out a Vote of No Confidence and win. Or whether they would just go for asking for a general election (which is also technically possible)

Some party members want a general election before Christmas as they feel they can capitalise on the current political situation to increase their mandate. This is a pretty big gamble for MPs who have a 'safe' job for 5 years, but who knows. I don't think the later is likely, but it depends on how the next few weeks play out.

I think the possibility of a general election is being taken seriously though by a few people.

I should add, there is talk of this, EVEN IF REMAIN WINS (you'd expect Cameron to resign if he lost the referendum so the vote of no confidence is more relevant in the event of a close win for Remain).

I certainly think he should go.

That the current prime minister has no economic plan should we vote to leave is truly shocking and negligent in the extreme.

He even denied access to the proper channels such that the leave campaign could provide one.

Frankly his most important job is ensuring confidence in the UK economy. Could even his closest supporters argue that he has done this?

Thanks for explaining Spinflight