Nigel Farage-staying in the EU risks more sex attacks

[BritBrit]

Nigel Farage says the sex attacks we have had across Europe by immigrants most notably in Cologne could happen in the UK.

Does he have a point? The EU have no idea who they have let into Europe or where they are. We have also had illegal immigrants sneaking into the UK we don't keep track of. More importantly other EU nations are able to issue their own passports which would give immigrants the right to enter the UK if we are in the EU, what power do we have to control the passport office of other EU nations?

news.sky.com/story/1707208/farage-staying-in-eu-risks-more-sex-attacks

Approximately 1-2% of refugees in Germany are expected to get a German passport. This itself is likely to take up to 10 years.

That's ten years in which this small number of people will establish lives, families and businesses in Germany - which makes them unlikely to want to move to the UK.

Did tens of thousands of Vietnamese refugees to Germany all rush to the UK once they got German citizenship? No they did not.

Did tens of thousands of Germany-based Turks move to the UK in the 80s? No.

Are you seriously arguing that all of us should give up job security, wealth, things in the shops, opportunities and rights for ourselves and our children, because of a fear that a tiny number of Syrians might, after several years spent in Germany, move to the UK?

winterbiscuit - I love the unintended irony of your post. That number 1 is about control and democracy and number 10 is about NATO.

You do realise that NATO is made up of 28 states, with a COMPLETELY unelected council and secretary general, whom we have no recourse to remove, tied to a foreign government who have a balancing vote, that can decide to take us to war. It is about the most powerful and least democratic organisation in the world.

MrsBlackthorne a recent survey by www.fwi.co.uk/news/exclusive-survey-reveals-farmers-back-eu-exit.htm Farmers Weekly puts support for Leave at 58 per cent of respondents.

The NFU's much larger poll found just 20% of farmers support Brexit.

www.itv.com/news/update/2016-04-18/remain-in-eu-says-national-farmers-union/

Mrs B

I don't think I claimed to have a monopoly on farmers' views of Brexit - I was recounting my conversations. I could add the fridge engineer and what he has to say about views in his office (mostly leave) and the NHS staff I work with (same), but I realise this is anecdotal. I think we'll only really know on June 24th !!!

Interestingly the polls continue to show that it is a neck and neck race, but the bookies still say it will be a landslide win for remain.

I didn't say we were the only EU country that paid in.. I said we are one of the few. Looks like we agree there.

I don't agree with your comment that wages going up isn't necessarily a good thing. At the moment, we subsidise big business, the Brussels backers, with benefits - tax credits. If folk were paid properly we wouldn't need to do this.

Our membership fee may be the same, but the odd bill for a bit of budget mismanagement can come along at anytime - remember the E2bn bill we were presented with in Oct 2014 - and Cameron said "I'm angry at the sudden presentation of a E2bn bill to the UK by the EU. It's an appalling way to behave and I won't be paying it on Dec 1st"....and then he paid it.

The EU currently has unfunded liabilities of E24.7 bn ... who's paying for that? Who's paying for the migrant crisis? The budget is being agreed in early July ? Greeks due a new bailout in July.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/its-not-just-greece-total-european-debt-hits-new-all-time-high

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-11/europe-s-39-trillion-pension-threat-grows-as-regional-economies-sputter

gainspainscapital.com/2012/06/25/forget-the-piigs-europe-as-a-whole-is-insolvent/

We may not have the Euro, but this will affect us as one of the few "rich" economies of Europe as other economies falter, even if it is via reduced trade, although without Treaty change it is not clear whether we are on the hook for future bailouts.

www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/lord_owen_without_treaty_change_uk_still_exposed_to_eurozone_bailout

Your evidence for growth in Europe was not compared to other countries in the world - it was a league table of the european nations. What is the relative size of those economies??

This is what I mean by being more nimble

www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/science-and-the-eu/

In 1969, the EU accounted for 35% of world GDP...today it is around 25%..... we need to look to the growing economies of the world in addition to the EU to grow our economy. Why rely on the EU to negotiate that - why not take control and do it ourselves?

A putative £2 billion bill would be a drop in the ocean compared to what our economy would lose if we leave.

Why would the "growing economies of the world" be interested in all the hassle of setting up small-scale trade agreements with one tiny country when it's so much easier and more advantageous to them to deal with the EU bloc?

The NFU has historically been linked to the establishment. Here is an interesting history of the NFU and its membership.

"The National Farmers' Union: friend to big business, not to small farmers."

"'It was more than a pressure group of loyal farmers - it became the seat of the agricultural establishment". - Lord Henry Plumb, former president of the National Farmer's Union5

"The NFU press office claims that it has 65,000 'farmer and grower' members and 75,000 'countryside' members. There are also other smaller membership categories such as corporate members, retired farmer members, farming family members, professional members and student members."

"At a forum organised by the Littoral Arts Project in 2001, however, Andrew Clark from the NFU stated, "In 1993 we had 96,000 full farming members, that figure is now down to 53,000 members". Figures from DEFRA show that in 2002, there were 163,800 full-time farmers in the UK. If Andrew Clark's figures are accurate, the NFU represents less than a third of full-time farmers."

"Many farmers feel that the NFU is far more interested in its countryside members - presumably because 'countryside' members are not relying on farming for a living and are hence not dropping like flies. The countryside membership is certainly a brainwave to ensure that their membership numbers continue to look healthy."

"It is (also) alleged that in 1965, the NFU made a pact with Harold Wilson's Government not to overly criticise Government policy in exchange for their 'special relationship'."

I don't think the world's 5th largest economy is a "tiny" country. I suppose you think all SMEs should give up trying to export around the world and just be satisfied exporting to the EU which grew at 0.3% in the last 3months of 2015 and has yet to return to pre 2008 levels of GDP. It is a low growth/no growth economy with current record unemployment levels in S Europe and deflation.

What will our economy lose if we leave? What will it be in 6months, 5 years, 10 years?

It won't be the 5th largest economy if we leave. Even less so if Scotland decides to secede and join the EU.

I doubt Scotland will vote to leave with the oil price currently where it is. The EU are going to tell them to join the queue for EU cash and if we leave, that will be France and Germany's cash....how much longer can the house of cards stand, expecially if our referendum galvanises the Dutch into a referendum - they need a petition with 300,000 signatures to get one.

When the Scottish Ref was taking place this article from the BBC showed there would be a benefit to England of Scotland going independent (I realise this is a 2014 analysis).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28192293

"I don't agree with your comment that wages going up isn't necessarily a good thing."

I agree that we shouldn't be subsidising low wage businesses. But there's a reason why successive governments haven't simply put up the minimum wage to drive up wages - because it pushes up the price of things. Especially in labour intensive industries like retail, agriculture, care, health.

As I said before, many of us would struggle if the cost of our food, clothing and childcare went up by 20% or more in a year.

Wage inflation needs to be managed very, very carefully or it just results in a pricing spiral - if the price of goods goes up people need to earn more to pay for it, which drives up prices even more, and so on.

"Why rely on the EU to negotiate that - why not take control and do it ourselves?"

Because on our own we have no negotiating power. The US have already said they'd prioritise the EU over us alone. As for suggestions we can trade with the Commonwealth? Yep, Zimbabwe is doing really well these days.

Augusta - see below a transcript from John Longworth (ex Director General of British Chamber of Commerce) - he thinks leaving the EU will boost our GDP by 1.1%. From the LBC website. This is why I think your certainty that we won't be the 5th largest economy is up for debate.

"The amount of the UK economy that is dependent on the European Union in any way is 13.3%, according to the Office of National Statistics. 87% of our economy is domestic or exports to the rest of the world.

But that whole economy is burdened by a massive cost of a contribution to the European Union and also by, according to the Treasury's own figures, a cost of £125bn a year of regulatory costs. If we're able to shave just 10% of the regulatory costs off plus our net contribution of £10bn to the EU, that would give us an additional 1.1% GDP growth per annum.

Europe will trade with us anyway. The vast majority of trade around the world is carried out without any trade arrangements. We have a trade surplus with the United States in services with whom we have no trade deal, which is twice the size of the trade surplus in services that we have with the European Union.

The reason for this is that 90% of our economy is services and there is no single market in the European Union in services to speak of. Only 10% of our economy have any dealing with the European Single Market and the Single Market is flawed. "

But Longworth has not been able to produce one scintilla of justification for all that nonsense, nor have his Brexit colleagues; and against him there are ranged the considerably more evidenced views of the IMF, OECD, CBI, the London School of Economics, the Treasury, the Governor of the Bank of England, and others. The CBI puts the overall economic cost of leaving at at least £100 billion, with a million lost jobs by 2020. It has been demonstrated that the drop in GDP will cost us more than any potential savings in EU contributions.

It was noticeable that when Zac Goldsmith was asked to name one benefit that would come to small and medium sized businesses if Britain were to leave, he could not give on example. It was also noticeable that Longworth's remarks at the BCC Annual conference were made in his personal capacity because the vast majority of BCC members do not support him. The members of other business organisations also do not agree with his views.

Membership of the European Single Market is vitally important to small and medium sized businesses, because of the access it gives them to a market of 500 million people. Those businesses really cannot expect to replace all of that from countries outside Europe, and they will certainly lose trade in Europe because their competitors will be able to trade on much more favourable terms. It's all very well Longworth claiming that we would still trade in Europe, but he very carefully slides away from the reality of that claim. To set up trading agreements within European countries, each business would have to set up agreements relevant to each separate country rather than, as now, trading under a single set of rules that apply to every country in Europe. And, from the point of view of EU countries, why would they bother when it's so much easier to trade with the EU member next door?

I worked with Longworth. CBI were waiting for him to say something like this so they could get rid of him, because he's a bloody idiot.

It's notable that he can't find anyone else to agree with him.

To return to subject of the Op do you think Welby was right to criticise Farage today for mentioning the sex attacks by men of MENA origin in Sweden, Cologne and Paris?

I usually abhor any reference to race but as a feminist and a mum this new phenomenon really upsets me. So I am annoyed by Welby and weirdly quite sympathetic to Farage.

I genuinely don't understand your thinking - honestly. Welby wasn't criticising Farage for "mentioning" the sex attacks. He was criticising him for making an unsubstantiated connection between a crime and "the other" coming here and doing it to us. Such insidious assertions have been used by groups against one another since time immemorial - against the Jews through history. About the blacks more recently. And indeed against Christians in the early days of the Christian church. The archbishop has every right to speak out against this kind of slur - as I believe any person of faith would.

Let me try to explain. Nobody has a problem with the issue of discussing the possible risks of terrorism posed by Schengen but to highlight the risks of sex attacks on young women is frowned upon.

Because it's conflating two things that really have nothing to do with one another besides an opportunity for people to make you scared of people who look different.

What do the sex attacks have to to with Schengen, anymore than - say - Josef Fritzel does?

That is to say, how is there any causal link between Schegen and sex attacks?

Or the other way around: should France draw up the drawbridge because the UK has a spate of 70s celebs who turned out to be wronguns?

Because the large numbers of single men involved in Cologne moved up thru Europe's open borders because of Schengen. And the Germans were powerless to identify them or convict them. Indeed they tried to cover it up. It seems to be a taboo subject.

I would not for one minute suggest as you do that they were Syrians by the way. Unlikely in my opinion.

70s celebs to not pose a current threat to women in European cities. This is not a joke. The game is to surround young women in a mob and force fingers into their vaginas. Listen to the British girls on Victoria Derbyshire talking about what happened to them in Paris.

What happened was awful. But it has nothing to do with the EU. And indeed if we leave the EU we don't gain any additional control of our borders - we might even lose some to get trade deals.

It has everything to do with the EU. Without the EU open borders, those big groups of single young men would not have been free to move up from MENA countries thru Greece to Cologne and Paris. That is a fact. It is a new phenomenon.