The EU Referendum is nearly upon us.........23rd June.

[Daisyonthegreen]

I have been invited by other posters to start a new EU Referendum Thread as the EU thread "In out shake it all about what to vote in the EU referendum "is now closed.
Anyhow this vote is is pretty crucial for the good of the country and your family.
I make no secret of the fact I feel to vote to Leave is the best option.
On the "In out shake it all about,what to vote in the EU Referendum " Thread I posted many links and gave views on why I feel that way.
I feel we would flourish free of the beaucratic ,undemocratic organisation it has turned into.
A Trading block initially started up with 9 countries in the 1970s has become out of control,mammoth and unwieldy and frankly rather dangerous.
We need to wrest back control of our own country,our borders and our ability to broker our own Trade deals which the EU insists on doing for us.
Plus our own Judicial decisions.
We on leaving would still Trade with the EU,they need us more than we need them actually but the beauty of it we could be free to broker our own deals with the rest of the world on our terms.
In short we would flourish.
We can love/ like Europe but not be in the EU.

A number of bremainers have said they are only contributing to this thread in the hope of persuading the undecided. So I'll bite. I'm undecided but considering a vote for brexit. I assume this means leaving the single market and forfeiting the four freedoms to strike out on our own.

I'll accept that on balance the EU isn't really any less democratic than the UK. In any case we could always vote Ukip and end the affair.

I accept that if we vote to leave the EU there will be a short to medium term recession. I'd imagine immediate capital flight followed by a weakened pound, a lowered credit rating for the UK, consequent higher interest rates. and inflation fueled by more expensive imports. I suspect this is already happening due to the risk posed by the referendum. I'd imagine that we'd lose international companies and investment during the 2 year + period of exit negotiations. I'd then expect it would take several more years to negotiate the necessary treaties from scratch and start growing our way out of the hole we had dug for ourselves.

I accept that I'll lose the option to retire to a cheap chateaux en France and that DC will lose their opportunity to gallivant around the cultural hot spots of western Europe before settling in a suitably chic arrondissement and raising their own Young European Federalists.

I detest Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, George Galloway and their unholy alliance of political chancers just as much as their Eurocrat equivalents. I'm not too keen on Daisy either.

And yet I'm still leaning out. So what the hell is wrong with me? I'd really like some level headed bremainers to talk some sense into me. I'd happy to expand on my other reasons in subsequent posts if people are interested. But let's start with EU immigration.

Lets get the inevitable out of the way - I'm not a racist and I'm not anti-immigrant. I accept that EU immigration so far has been economically and culturally beneficial on balance. This country needs immigrants and I've been fortunate enough to know some fabulous Continental types socially and professionally. In fact I'd say immigrants are so important to this country that we need to be able to set a sensible and fair immigration policy. Except we can't, can we?

Although on balance EU immigration is good for us there are caveats. We want skilled immigrants. I doubt that we benefit from unskilled immigrants forcing down the price of labour while increasing housing costs and putting strain on public services. Certain sections of our society suffer from this and others perceive that they do and this will cause social tensions - thus the rise of ukip. Worse to follow?

The system is also unfair. I've known highly skilled Indian engineers being tied in knots attempting to get visas whereas any European numbskull can stroll in and seek work as a recruitment consultant or game show host.

Without wanting to do a Daisy, according to the BBC: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34931725

Net migration of European Union (EU) citizens showed an increase of 42,000 to 180,000, with the number from countries outside the bloc also up 36,000 to 201,000

So roughly half of our net immigration is from outside the EU - but we can control this. The EU half is beyond control. 180,000 is roughly the population of Aberdeen. By the time my DS (6) is 18 we will have imported another 2 million Europeans at current rates (2 more Birminghams!), Plus their children. If the EU expands it will probably be more. The FT reports roughly 150,000 new homes were built in the UK in 2015. Will we keep pace? Will My son be able to buy a home here? What would happen in the event of a real EU migrant shock - e.g. mass migration in the millions due to conflict in Eastern Europe, especially if the EU expands and/or Russia and the west continue their current spat?

I contend that immigration is a major social and economic issue which we cannot manage within the EU. If we left the EU we could design a fair immigration policy that could address our specific needs in a controllable fashion.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

Threedays, thanks for the thoughtful post.

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that you're assuming there would be a substantial difference in the quantity/quality of immigrants post Brexit. That's not clear at all.

Any trade deal with the EU/China/India is likely to come with immigration ties. And the government will not have a problem with it, because it actively wants to high numbers of low-skilled immigrants. Especially if Britain goes it alone and needs to keep its labour costs low to be competitive.

If you want a more detailed argument of why Brexit would not significantly change immigration numbers, have a look at this (guardian link, but you can find the actual report from there)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/brexit-unlikely-fall-immigration-report

threedays, as you have brought up immigration, I am going to voice one of my concerns. With very high youth unemployment in parts of the EU, there has been high levels of migration here where there are more jobs available. This inevitably impacts on the opportunities for British born youth.

Threedays

" I assume this means leaving the single market and forfeiting the four freedoms to strike out on our own."
There is already a free trade agreement in Europe. This includes counties that are not in the EU for example Turkey. Turkey can make and sell goods to any other country with no trade barriers.

Which four freedoms are you referring to?

"I'll accept that on balance the EU isn't really any less democratic than the UK. In any case we could always vote Ukip and end the affair."

There is a difference between the way in which laws are made in the UK vs the EU,

In the UK, we vote in MPs every 5 years. These MPs vote in Parliament and decide on a majority basis which laws are brought in. They can be challenged by the Lords. So the people we vote in vote on the laws and we can vote them out.

In the EU, we vote for MEPs. the MEPs discuss new laws and vote. However, the unelected Eurocrats who you and I cannot vote in or out make laws behind closed doors that we have to abide by. I would venture to say that is less democratic than our system. Even worse, because the UK only has 72 out of 750 MEPs, our representation round the table is less than 10% of the total vote. When it comes to trade agreements, because we have handed over control to the EU, we have very little say in the outcome. If we were out of the EU, we would have 100% representation and negotiate trade deals that suit us rather than trade agreement that suit 28 countries.

Thanks Chalalala I'd read the link and dipped into the report previously.

I suppose the central difference between the policy of the EU and the vision of Open Europe's report is the aspect of control. Post brexit the UK could control the number and skillset of immigrants to meet requirements. If we needed unskilled immigrants we can control that too and that would no doubt be a subject for debate at election time.

We need immigrants but I have a problem with the idea of complete free movement of people between states with different legal systems, budgets, tax/benefit systems etc. Its a similar idea to the Euro. Like the Euro we have lots of people saying 'it'll be fine' and it will be until there's a genuine shock. The Euro debt crisis has blighted Greece and other states. I don't think we've had a genuine EU migrant shock yet.

Threedays

"I accept that if we vote to leave the EU there will be a short to medium term recession"
This may or may not happen - no one knows.
However, using data available, the EU block of countries are a shrinking economic block. Rising unemployment, specially that of youth. Germany is a powerhouse but if you look at the economies of the rest of the countries, the majority are not in great shape. My question is why would we want to get into even closer political union with a failing block of countries? Trade with them, yes. Controlled by them, no.

The US trades with the EU counties but us not a member of the EU.

We are the second highest net contributor to the EU and therefore are subsidising the other counties. As they get weaker, I imagine we would need to be paying even more into the EU to prop it up.

We then get on to the point that if we leave the EU, we will have to renew our trade agreements with the other members. The argument for the bremainers is that it could take 7 years to renegotiate trade agreements like for example Canada did.

However there are two points that counter this argument. 1. The UK Government on its own will be more efficient at negotiating than the hugely bureaucratic EU machine and of course will only need to agree terms that suit us rather than that of 28 nations. 2. The reason Canada took so long is also because they had to measure up and be able to agree to the massive requirements of the EU. The UK already trades in the EU and therefore will not have this cumbersome hurdle. In essence we already have complaint trade agreement templates and thus agreeing trade agreements with other EU counties will not be that burdensome.

Ah, that good old democratic House of Lords.

In their election manifestos of 2010, Labour and the Lib Dems promised to reform the Lords, and the Tories said they would "work to build a consensus" on reform.

No, the Lords aren't elected, but there is certainly a will by many towards reforming the Lords. Here is parliament's website on House of Lords Reform.

I doubt whether the EU will be so open to reforming itself any time soon.

Threedays

"I accept that I'll lose the option to retire to a cheap chateaux en France and that DC will lose their opportunity to gallivant around the cultural hot spots of western Europe before settling in a suitably chic arrondissement and raising their own Young European Federalists."

Neither of these are likely to be the case.

The price of property in other countries depends on their economy and the conversation rate of the pound.

Yes the pound may suffer a short term drop in value. But also remember, the Euro is a currency of mainly weak counties. Apart from Germany, the EU is hardly a hotbed of innovation. Compared with the US and Asia and the EU is a pretty poor relation. We are seeing Italian banks getting into difficulty and the first bail-in of an Austrian bank. Include the fact that the EU Central Bank is now printing money (which has the side effect of devaluing the currency), Sterling may not end up weak compared to the Euro for very long.

So you will still be able to pick up a cheap property in Europe.

In or out or the EU,, your DC will be able to gallivant wherever she likes. As I say to my children, if you have the qualifications and skills in demand, you can go to any country you like in the world; subject to being able to speak the local language. We'll still be able to travel to the EU. It would be suicide for the EU to stop UK citizens at their borders stopping them from spending sterling in their Euroland.

EU migration here has had such a significant impact on chances for young people born on the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36029703

Things will get worse with the accession of Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia. Still recovering from the Balkan War, these countries are poor and lack infrastructure. Where will their young men come to looking for work?

And then there is Turkey of course, getting closer to gaining accession...

Hi Bronzebust.

Turkey are a candidate for entry into the EU and so the EU are following their established pattern of offering incentives to join the club. My assumption is that we'll receive different treatment on the way out.

We might be offered a deal like Norway to stay in the EEA. We would accept the free movement of goods, capital, services and people (the 4 freedoms) in return for access to the single market. The problem with that has been pointed out previously - it doesn't address the issues people actually complain about and at the same time leaves us with no voice in the EU and no opt outs. Its the worst of both worlds really.

We might get a better deal than Norway because we buy lots of German goods. It might be that other EU members go easy on us because they might leave soon too. It might also be that if we vote to leave the EU wakes up, reforms, and invites us back. I wouldn't bank on that.

So my assumption is that an out vote leads us to reject all of that and set out to imitate Canada. The problem with that is that we have no trade treaties outside the EU and so we have a problem. Thus the recession. Just the uncertainty will cause a recession I suspect. I take your point about the EU being a sinking ship however.

As regards democracy. Yes EU democracy looks different but ultimately all involved are either directly elected or appointed by those who are elected. No Lords. Plus the UK electorate can always pull the plug by voting out no or voting ukip later.

Threedays

"I detest Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, George Galloway and their unholy alliance of political chancers just as much as their Eurocrat equivalents. I'm not too keen on Daisy either."

These feelings are understandable. However, the task in hand is to work out what you feel would be best for you and the future of your children.

"And yet I'm still leaning out. So what the hell is wrong with me? I'd really like some level headed bremainers to talk some sense into me. I'd happy to expand on my other reasons in subsequent posts if people are interested. But let's start with EU immigration."

Immigration. My personal view is that the UK needs immigration because we need to attract the best skilled and tallented people from anywhere in the world, not just from the EU, to enhance our economy. Technically the EU is prejudiced by making it difficult for us to employ people from countries outside the EU in favour of those inside. Perversely, remainers will shout zenopbobe to Brexierts however, at the same time, they are themselves 'Non EU' phobes.

What we don't need, is immigrants that have no job and no money to support themselves holding out a begging bowl at the UK taxpayers expenses. We already have enough unemployed, homeless and poverty stricken people of our own without importing even more.

In Belfast a lot of people I have spoken to think we should leave the EU, that Britain, the Pound and the Commonwealth were all there and doing fine before the EU, and will continue to do fine if we do leave. A shake up might do us some good.

Threedays

"In fact I'd say immigrants are so important to this country that we need to be able to set a sensible and fair immigration policy. Except we can't, can we?"

We cannot control immigration while we're members of the EU. Interestingly, the pamphlet the Government sent out recently states we'll have control of our borders while in the EU . This is nonsense. I wonder how much else of the information is nonsense.

Threedogs

"Although on balance EU immigration is good for us there are caveats. We want skilled immigrants. I doubt that we benefit from unskilled immigrants forcing down the price of labour while increasing housing costs and putting strain on public services. Certain sections of our society suffer from this and others perceive that they do and this will cause social tensions - thus the rise of ukip. Worse to follow?"

True enough.
Like him or loathe him, Nigel Farage long ago saw the EU for what it really is and had the guts to be very vocal about it. He said last year that the huge unchecked inflows of extremists into the EU posing as asylum seekers would be a problem. Now we've had Paris and Cologne I fear the UK may be at very great risk. Safer in the EU with open borders; I'm not sold on that at all. It seems illogical that we are safer letting any Tom, Dick or Harry into our country without being able to vet them. More and more people squeezed into our limited housing stock, longer queues for doctors and shortage of school places for our children. Build more houses I hear you say. I say, where is the money going to come from? Worse to follow while in the EU, I would count on that.

Threedogs

"The system is also unfair. I've known highly skilled Indian engineers being tied in knots attempting to get visas whereas any European numbskull can stroll in and seek work as a recruitment consultant or game show host."

On the money. This reinforces one of my previous posts. I had a company that recruited a very talented young man from India who spoke perfect English. The hoops we had to go though. The EU is very unfair and protectionist. Quite the opposite of what it proclaims to be.

Threedogs

"So roughly half of our net immigration is from outside the EU - but we can control this. The EU half is beyond control. 180,000 is roughly the population of Aberdeen. By the time my DS (6) is 18 we will have imported another 2 million Europeans at current rates (2 more Birminghams!), Plus their children. If the EU expands it will probably be more. The FT reports roughly 150,000 new homes were built in the UK in 2015. Will we keep pace? Will My son be able to buy a home here? What would happen in the event of a real EU migrant shock - e.g. mass migration in the millions due to conflict in Eastern Europe, especially if the EU expands and/or Russia and the west continue their current spat?

I contend that immigration is a major social and economic issue which we cannot manage within the EU. If we left the EU we could design a fair immigration policy that could address our specific needs in a controllable fashion.

Tell me why I'm wrong."

You are not wrong.

It makes sense and most other countries have a points or some form of migration control system to ensure only useful and law abiding migrants enter their country. Anyone in the UK dare suggest this is branded a xenophobe and/or a racist. By that measure, most of the world is xenophobic and racist. Of course it is not racist and xenophobic, it is just plain sensible.

The other problem our Government has is being able to predict the need of public services in the future. We used to fill in a census which was used in conjunction with other data they had to work out how to spend money and where on public services. Because of open borders, no Government Tory, Labour, Lib Dem can know how many people will be in the country and thus unable to plan for anything.. The NHS is busting at the seams not only because of aging population and more expensive drugs but also the fact that anyone with an EU passport can pole up and obtain treatment. Same for schools. Expect chaos.

Another consideration is that although we are the 5th largest economy in the world, we are about 33rd in terms of wealth per capita . This represents the wealth of the country divided by its population. If our population expands faster than our wealth, it means the average person will become worse off. Ask people you know if they are better off now versus 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago.

threedays yes those are fair points in answer to the report. I guess I would say that the difference appears to me theoretical rather than practical - yes in theory post-Brexit the UK could potentially control the numbers and skillsets of immigrants (although there may be issues cutting trade deals that allow full control), but in practice the numbers would stay pretty similar. As long as the UK has relatively low unemployment, governments will want to import large amounts of cheap labour to help growth. And if the unemployment numbers rise/the economy gets worse, then unskilled immigration (EU or otherwise) would naturally drop anyway.

So Brexit would be a very high price to pay, to get pretty much the same result in the end.

Excellent and informative posts from bronze.

Chalalala, you say you are French on another thread. Isn't Brexit an issue for British people to decide?

this whole referendum is all about racism and nothing else.

No, this referendum is not about racism, it is about putting a halt to the organised, planned destruction - by numbers and incoming hostile cultures - of GB. It is reckless to give away so much influence, it is reckless to always be on the receiving end of various EU directives. Just as a concert hall will not allow in more attendees than it can hold safely, ditto any country.

No country thus far has been able to dodge the clause that demands free movement of EU citizens. That is - for them to live-work-claim in any country that has a trade agreement with the EU does not mean it cannot be achieved, though it will mean GB 'giving up' something. Tit for tat afterall.

At the moment we cannot control EU people moving to GB. The knock-on effect has been disastrous in terms of housing, wages, NHS, schools. We continually see situations such as my friend's children who are 5th generation Brightonians being unable to get even one of the three junior schools chosen by their mother, two being within walking distance.

I deeply believe for a variety of reasons that this referendum is based on deeply racist motivations

I am very concerned about the deeply racist and intolerant people who are moving to GB. They are now all EU citizens and have stated that they prefer life in GB because their women are allowed to wear the burka in public, but in France that is prohibited. I am very aware of that group's sometimes barely concealed contempt for European life and its people. You appear to defend that level of racism, why is that?

Chalalala, you say you are French on another thread. Isn't Brexit an issue for British people to decide?

I didn't say anything to the contrary. I don't have a vote, and fair enough. But I do have a right to a voice in the public debate. Are you saying I shouldn't be on this thread?

I have made my life here, I am a permanent resident, I have been paying taxes for years, my DCs are British. As a member of British society, and a citizen of organisation you want to leave, I have a stake in this referendum, even if I don't have a vote.

And even if I didn't have a stake at all, I would still be fully entitled to debate this. I don't see anyone on MN telling posters they don't have a right to discuss Donald Trump, because the US election is something for Americans to decide.