The EU Referendum is nearly upon us.........23rd June.

[Daisyonthegreen]

I have been invited by other posters to start a new EU Referendum Thread as the EU thread "In out shake it all about what to vote in the EU referendum "is now closed.
Anyhow this vote is is pretty crucial for the good of the country and your family.
I make no secret of the fact I feel to vote to Leave is the best option.
On the "In out shake it all about,what to vote in the EU Referendum " Thread I posted many links and gave views on why I feel that way.
I feel we would flourish free of the beaucratic ,undemocratic organisation it has turned into.
A Trading block initially started up with 9 countries in the 1970s has become out of control,mammoth and unwieldy and frankly rather dangerous.
We need to wrest back control of our own country,our borders and our ability to broker our own Trade deals which the EU insists on doing for us.
Plus our own Judicial decisions.
We on leaving would still Trade with the EU,they need us more than we need them actually but the beauty of it we could be free to broker our own deals with the rest of the world on our terms.
In short we would flourish.
We can love/ like Europe but not be in the EU.

Lurked
With the extra tax revenue - who will fund this?

With the extra tax revenue The point here is that until we know how this (migrants reduce waiting times) is funded ( taxpayers, migrants bring their own money with the, someone else outside of the country pays for them, they pay back the costs at a later date) there ll be an associated cost at the point of observation. If these costs are not examined, then the study's headline/abstract can be misleading (or interpreted erroneously). We all want a robust debate but we also need to be mindful of the study's context when reporting it for discussion.

Liner
You forget that freedom of movement apples both ways, peoplefrom the UK can take advantage of all that other EU countries offer! House prices are an interesting argument, the rediculous growth of house prices started a long time before EU immigration from former Eastern block countries increased. Much of the over inflation is pushed by institutional greed and the buy to let boom that turned housing into a commodity.
I have spent most of my working life in exporting industries and I've seen the benefits of the union first hand. The common regulatory environment and mutual recognition agreements with non EU nations has reduced the regulatory overhead, driven innovation, improved environmental protection, improved safety and provided better working conditions.
The sensible choice is to stay in and work through the problems together. Pulling up the drawbridge will not stop the international pressures from affecting the UK but it will make them more difficult to resolve.

"Who will fund this."

You are aware that EU immigrants are under represented in the unemployment statistics for how much of the workforce they make up? You are aware that only 14% of EU immigrants are in receipt of tax credits? That they are net tax contributors?

Oh on that last point, the migration watch rebuttal of the UCL paper is flawed, because it fails to take into account the "worst case scenario" employed by the UCL team. Also it passes half the cost of education of children born to parents of mixed nationality onto the EU immigrant half in order to come out with a net deficit.

The UCL study also found that: "Recent immigrants, i.e. those who arrived since 2000, are less likely to both receiving benefits and living in social housing than natives." So the Social housing pressure is not down to immigration.

On schools, the government have had years of warning that an inrcease in both domestic birth rate and that of immigrants would cause a school places issues, but even still 84% of applications in 2015 got their first choice and 95% within their top 3. I couldn't find any accurate data for this year yet.

At the same time there has been money found to set up free schools in areas of spare capacity with a cost of around £6.6 million allocated to schools for building work alone. You can't tell me that this couldn't have been allocated more efficiently.

Oh gosh Boris has really gone and done it now, what a buffoon.

You forget that freedom of movement apples both ways, peoplefrom the UK can take advantage of all that other EU countries offer!

But the draw here for the rest of the EU is far greater than the draw for UK citizens to move there. Most of Eastern Europe are already members, soon Bosnia, Albania, Turkey - tens of millions of unemployed there already, plenty of them will want to move here and will happily work for peanuts. In the meantime the UK taxpayer picks up the tab for all the additional costs of the increased population, plus the benefits bill for the UK citizens sitting idle and workless.

Those of you who support free unlimited movement of EU citizens to the UK, how many would be too many? If a third of a million a year (2015 figure) isn't too many, how about a million, two million, ten million?

I've had a quick look at the damn Oxford study, they suggest two explanations for immigration decreasing waiting times locally: 1) immigrants are younger and healthier than the average UK population, and likely to use the NHS less 2) the effects of immigration are dispersed throughout the country via internal migration of UK-born people. It's not clear from the study if immigration causes waiting times to increase or decrease on the national scale. So basically it doesn't tell us much either way.

But it does come up with the data to say that there is a correlation between waiting times and increased immigration, which kind of disproves the brexit sides "strain on resources point."

well intuitively it seems to me unlikely immigration would have a massive impact overall, if immigrants are more likely to be young and healthy and more likely to be employed than British people. But studies like this tend to have really narrow findings, and they quite rightly refuse to extrapolate.

But yes, it certainly disproves the myth that if you have a lot of immigrants in your area, then you'll wait longer for NHS services.
(ironically it does leave open the possibility that if you don't have lots of immigrants around, then your waiting time may be marginally increased!)

Chalala Thanks for the summary. If the title of the paper had been " Immigration reduces waiting times because... immigrants pay back over a five-year period/current users are displaced/extra resources are diverted fromXXX to the area" then that is a better indication of the findings. Simply declaring a correlational relationship means that these two variables are related (a bit like sunrise/alarm clock going off are related) but that's all.

Lurked There is a UCL study? Damn. I've got a pile of work to do...

I don't think that the UK is a greater draw to EU citizens than any other EU country is. The more economically successful countries will see more immigration - this has always been the case. I think that the is due is abuse of the Labour force, including labour gang suppliers. This can and should be addressed in law and addressed EU wide.

Boris is indeed a buffoon, and either an ignorant or dishonest one too. The Churchill story was debunked a while back. With him as PM I'd say the post-Brexit special relationship is off to a real good start.

I also love the irony of him writing that Obama would never embroil the US in anything like the EU. Surely he's aware this is exactly how the US came about - a bunch of states that decided to form a federal super state because they thought they'd be stronger together.

We are not alone regards our fears of immigration,we must Leave the EU to address this issue.
www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-concern

I'd love to see and Obama vs Boris debate..

Chalalala
You reasoning is becoming desperate.
I shall vote LEAVE with every confidence as will my Economist husband.We will thrive.

Wonderful address of the Australian Senate saying they support us LEAVING.
They want to Trade with us without the dead hand of the EU interfering.The beauty of it we would still trade with the EU( they need us more than we need them) and be freed up to Trade with big markets such as Asia and China as well.
Worth viewing.
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/662856/video-Australia-Senator-James-Paterson-Brexit-speech-EU-referendum

Joining the EEC really screwed over NZ in particular, but also Oz in the 70s.

Daisy its you that never debates anything just makes assertions, I think Boris has done the leave campaign great harm today.

I'm an economist, and I'm voting to stay :)

Oh and please stop the "EU needs us more than we need them" rubbish it simply isn't true.

Lurked
You have always maintained your stance on In this is nothing new.
My Husband and cohorts wish to LEAVE.
As do I and my entire family and pals.
We must agree to differ once again.

Funny that, I know a few brexiters but most don't really get economics, I'm surprised.

The Trade deficit proves that the EU needs us more than we need them.
We are hamstrung regards Trade deals by the EU who do not have our interests at heart.
Mums look at the Australian Senate video just a few posts up.They support our bid to LEAVE the disintegrating,dysfunctional EU.

My post earlier should read mass immigration.

No it doesn't! We export 44% of all of our goods to the EU, we need them, also we are in net service surplus with the EU which would decline if we were to leave, the much vaunted Canadian deal doesn't include services and neither does the Swiss.

I take no notice of B Johnson. He's not up for election it's a referendum on UK sovereignty

As such Obama should have some decorum. After all the US was born out of a quest for freedom from unrepresentative and distant governance : Live free or die! and all that..

I know nothing of the dark arts of economics ( despite trying I might add) but I do know a bit about exporting and transport and have heard there is the so called Rotterdam effect whereby a lot of the exports are not final destination EU but going through EU ports ( such as the quite spectacular Rotterdam- well if you like big ports!)

Just quickly googled to find that the Office for National Statistics can't say if the 44% export stat is affected by said effect.

Confusion all round..