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Brexit

The EU Referendum is nearly upon us.........23rd June.

1000 replies

Daisyonthegreen · 13/04/2016 20:42

I have been invited by other posters to start a new EU Referendum Thread as the EU thread "In out shake it all about what to vote in the EU referendum "is now closed.
Anyhow this vote is is pretty crucial for the good of the country and your family.
I make no secret of the fact I feel to vote to Leave is the best option.
On the "In out shake it all about,what to vote in the EU Referendum " Thread I posted many links and gave views on why I feel that way.
I feel we would flourish free of the beaucratic ,undemocratic organisation it has turned into.
A Trading block initially started up with 9 countries in the 1970s has become out of control,mammoth and unwieldy and frankly rather dangerous.
We need to wrest back control of our own country,our borders and our ability to broker our own Trade deals which the EU insists on doing for us.
Plus our own Judicial decisions.
We on leaving would still Trade with the EU,they need us more than we need them actually but the beauty of it we could be free to broker our own deals with the rest of the world on our terms.
In short we would flourish.
We can love/ like Europe but not be in the EU.

OP posts:
Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:17

Lord Owen asks us to vote LEAVE to save the NHS
This is exactly what the Consultant and Nursing Sister I spoke to yesterday want us to do.
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/658517/EU-referendum-Brexit-NHS-Labour-Lord-Owen-Jeremy-Hunt
The Consultant and nursing Sister were also concerned with the NUMBERS entering the country and how they fear for the NHS.
Our NHS is creaking at the seams.

OP posts:
Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:21

Priti Patel the Cabinet Minister writes about Immigration.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/priti-patel-interview-its-not-racist-to-worry-about-immigration/

OP posts:
Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:24

For those who wish to call xenophobe to Close debate:
A good article
www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/03/28/of-course-worrying-about-immigration-doesnt-make-you-racist--why/

OP posts:
Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:28

www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/365
On school places due to rising birth rate.

OP posts:
Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:33

Priti Patel a Cabinet Minister.
Worth a quick read mums,I know you have busy lives,I'm a mum so I know...
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/minister-blames-uncontrolled-eu-migration-7778200

OP posts:
AnnaForbes · 21/04/2016 09:35

Anna
The EU is not about redistribution,

Then how come we contribute significantly more than we take out? (£350 million given each week, £240 million given back so each week we are £110 million poorer).

There are net contributors such as UK, Germany, Italy and France. 60% of all contributions come from these four countries.

And there are countries such as Poland, Greece, Hungary, Portugal and Romania. They receive big EU cash injections because they are poorer than average.

It is really very, very simple.

AnnaForbes · 21/04/2016 09:38

Anna it's actually a rather poor point, all of the rich European nations, with two exceptions are already in. We have rich nations falling over each other to do deals with the EU though.

Yes, falling over each other to do deals with the UK. Can you see any wealthy nations wanting to join the EU? Joining and trading with are two completely different things Confused. Dont conflate them. I like to do business with the 2000 clients my business has but I dont want to marry any of them!

Daisyonthegreen · 21/04/2016 09:43

Interesting,reassuring short video from Australia to support us in LEAVING the dysfunctional EU on 23rd June 2016.
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/662856/video-Australia-Senator-James-Paterson-Brexit-speech-EU-referendum

OP posts:
Chalalala · 21/04/2016 10:02

fourmummy

those agencies producing positive figures for remain are also ones that want us to Remain. Conflict of interest?

Or you could say the independent agencies producing these studies want us to remain because they genuinely think Brexit is a terrible idea?

Your argument has a circular tendency here, because in your view both "Brexit actually bad" and "Brexit actually good" would produce the exact same outcome of positive "remain" studies.

At the very most this would mean that these studies don't tell us much. It certainly doesn't mean that "Brexit actually good".

You also seem to be forgetting that even government-funded studies are very capable of going against political will. The same Treasury that just produced a thorough critique of the Brexit case, also consistently recommended against the euro in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the Labour government would have loved nothing more than a positive assessment.

Is every single independent study fundamentally dishonest and biased? Yes, that's possible. But I don't think it's very likely.

AnnaForbes · 21/04/2016 10:03

The wealth is being spread thinner because we are a much more unequal society, we are far more unequal than other European countries and will get worse outside of the EU.

Wrong again. As Bronze's excellent post above clearly illustrates. There is no more money but a growing population with claim to it inevitably means everyone is worse off (except the elites of course but they will be fine whatever happens).

Contrary to what you might believe the country has been getting poorer since 1998 because we import more than we export. We also know from stats that 85% of the expansion of our population is from immigration. If what the Government says is true, suggesting that immigration is good for the wealth of this country, how come today our country is still buying more from abroad than we export? i.e. the country is still getting poorer.

We only get wealthier from productivity.

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 10:10

We also know from stats that 85% of the expansion of our population is from immigration

what stats have you been reading? I've read around 50%

www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/impact-migration-uk-population-growth

fourmummy · 21/04/2016 10:24

Chalala I agree with you but the possibility of a conflict of interest remains. I didn't actually say that I know what it is (hence the circularity), but it's worth extending our thinking in that direction. Independence in research is a nuanced concept and seems to be looming ever larger as a concept (quite rightly). I wanted to encourage posters to consider possible conflict of interest when reading research outputs. I'm leaning more toward the Leave side for many reasons, but I would be happier if we could make our decisions based on transparent processes. As a quick example, I'm currently reading this:

www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Research-and-development-funding-for-science-and-technology-in-the-UK1.pdf

which states that the EU supports only 3% of British R & D, and 11% of British HE research funding (but not all of that funding goes to HE - some to charities, etc.). You'd think the numbers would be far higher given the current panicky messages circulating regarding the fate of British science if we Leave. There was an anxiety-inducing message from a scientist yesterday on MN to that effect, and I've heard that some universities are sending 'implicit' messages to staff about the direction that their cote should take (I don't know how true this is).

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 10:45

fourmummy I'm an academic (not in economics clearly Wink), and yes there is an awful lot of anxiety surrounding the possibility of Brexit.

I haven't heard anything about universities sending messages to staff (although a hundred vice-chancellors published an open letter against Brexit), but to be honest they don't need to, I'd venture a guess that ~70% of academics are for "remain" anyway (actually 83% of British scientists according to a Nature poll)

That being said, I suspect that at least part of the (relative) scientific consensus against Brexit is based on a gut feeling and personal experience rather than on a hard look at the funding data.

The number I had in mind for the EU contribution to UK research funding was around 10-15%, so not too far off from what you have. That's still an awful lot of money, and we need every penny. I know the classic Brexit argument is that Britain would get extra resources from not having to pay into the EU, but the people I talk to are extremely skeptical that a) there would actually be any extra resources and b) even if there were, they would be sent back our way.

I wanted to encourage posters to consider possible conflict of interest when reading research outputs. I'm leaning more toward the Leave side for many reasons, but I would be happier if we could make our decisions based on transparent processes.

Absolutely fair. But then the same standard needs to be applied to the numbers produced by the Leave Campaign. It's not like they don't also have a vested interested in seeing what they want to see!

prettybird · 21/04/2016 10:51

Does anyone else get fed up with Daisy constantly reminding us that she's a mum and that somehow that makes her opinion more important? Hmm

I'm a mum too not that that makes my opinion any more relevant

I'll be voting to Remain. One of the many reasons why is that I genuinely don't believe we'd get a "better" deal negotiating trade deals on our own. We'd end up, if we want to export to Europe, having to comply with the all the regulations that the Brexiters complain about, without actually having any influence. And while I gave major concerns with TTIP, my issue is more with the Conservative Government not negotiating exemptions for key industries, as other countries have done. I have zero confidence that they would negotiate exemptions for, eg, the NHS, should we be negotiating the trade deal outside the EU. In fact, I think it would be even more secretive and weighted in favour of corporations, ceding far more in the way of sovereignty than the EU has ever done. Angry

In my last job, I worked on multi-million pound deals with Iceland - the last one while the crisis was happening (and yes, they did pay - only a few weeks late because of the capital controls that had been imposed). I learnt a lot about EFTA and the fact that they effectively had to comply with all European rules without the influence. They also still have to accept free movement.

In Scotland it is arguable that we need more immigration, not less.

fourmummy · 21/04/2016 10:58

Chalala Not an economist here either; similar profession to you. Here's an extract from an academic's message from yesterday's thread:

Our university president is a life scientist. Formally, the university is not taking a specific position. Informally, she has told us in the same field as her that Brexit would be a disaster for our institution. I don't know if other academics have had similar messages?

This really worries me because I'm not convinced how justified this 'informal' position is. Look at this:

image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2012/01/26/EU27_Money.pdf

This is from 2011 - when there was no Brexit looming. Would they publish it now (it shows that UK gives far more than it receives, among other things)?

Completely happy for transparency arguments to apply to both sides, hence the search for information.

lurked101 · 21/04/2016 11:07

Anna could it be that the reason that they are not falling over each other to join is that they're not actually in Europe?

"There is no more money but a growing population with claim to it inevitably means everyone is worse off (except the elites of course but they will be fine whatever happens)."

Immigration actually causes economic growth because the rate of consumption increases, which due to the multiplier effect leads to an increase in all other factors of AD, and sustains both long run and short run growth.

However, the gini coefficient for the UK is the highest of any EU state, which means we are the most unequal country in terms of wealth distribution. Sorry I'm not wrong, don't ever presume to correct my economics. This isn't down to population.

Especially not when you are either not aware of the full facts or are willfully misleading others with them . For example, we do pay in more than we get out of the EU but it isn't £350 million a week, for starters that doesn't take into account the rebate that we get., which never gets sent to Brussels it is deducted at source. We then get a lot back in subsidies and private sector investment.

We do pay more into the EU than we get out but with the added benefit that other countries are then able to engage with trade more, which increases the level of exports to them.

fourmummy · 21/04/2016 11:16

Regarding the HE sector in the UK - this has experienced much instability over the past few years anyway in the form of redundancies, unstable contracts, reduced R & D funding, closure of whole departments. I don't really know what Brexit will change in this respect because non-Brexit did not guarantee these things either.

fourmummy · 21/04/2016 11:19

...and, of course, we'll save money, which could hopefully be redirected to the HE sector.

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 11:29

fourmummy well this sends us back to the general question "would the UK have more or less money after Brexit", which can't really be reduced to recovering its net contributions to the EU.

Universities are looking at their specific sector, not at the broader economic picture (although of course it factors in). The UK may generally pay in more than it gets back, but UK research has by far the best success rate in Europe at winning EU funding, so the system works for us. Also, the problem is bigger than a simple shortfall in funding, there are also concerns about cooperation and collaboration, student intakes, etc. I'll admit I haven't looked at the arguments in detail, but the general feeling around me is that the EU has served the HE sector well, and Brexit comes with a lot of dangers and questions and no obvious advantage.

I'm also not sure if Vice-Chancellors coming out against Brexit amounts to the university taking an official position? but if yes, then the vast majority of universities have officially come out against Brexit, and the poster you're quoting is in the minority to only have heard an "informal" critique of Brexit.

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 11:33

...and, of course, we'll save money, which could hopefully be redirected to the HE sector.

both points highly debatable, though.

you're right about the recent instability, but from what I'm seeing around me that's also perceived as a reason for "in". The past few UK governments' (not just Tory) HE policies have been absolutely despised by the academic community, so there's not much comfort in the thought of leaving an EU that has been pretty good to us, to be even more controlled by a British government that has been largely terrible to us.

BronzeBust · 21/04/2016 11:34

Engineer

^Bronze
Wow I've never seen someone miss a point so badly! Yes ecconomies require exports to put money in but to function money must circulate within that economy and this is generlly achieved by internal consumption. Your example above also discounts that many immigrants work in areas do directly bring in funding from around the globe, take higher education as one example. Your example of the 10 friends above - which I shudder at- misses that the joining five, let's say working in the service sector, provide Labour, creativity and technical support. All ten put ten pounds into a common pot at the start of the evening and hire a minibus to take every one home thus no one gets cold in a taxi que. The guy that lived in the opposite directiont to the rest and would be on his own had they not hired the minubus is less likely to be mugged and doesn't have a larger bill than the rest to pay to get home... there almost as daft as your last point!^

You are correct I understand the principal of the velocity of money however this is not the point I am making. Internal consumption does not make the country richer, it shuffles the existing money around. One of the many factors that affects the velocity of money is propensity to consume . The greater the tendency of the people to consume, other things remaining the same, higher will be the velocity of money. On the contrary, lower the propensity to consume, lesser will be the velocity of money. Saving, or not consuming, has an adverse effect on the velocity of money. The Chancellor will do all he can to make us feel good about the economy though some like me don't buy it. One of the reasons he has to maintain uncontrolled immigration is good for the economy is because he is unable to control immigration.

The point I am making is that unless the expansion of the population is not met by a commensurate expansion of the income of the country, the country gets poorer.

The illusion that we are not getting poorer is masked by borrowing and printing money (QE). Brown borrowed huge amounts of money to mask the problems and Osbourne is doing the same.

Of course the example of the 10 diners is simplistic but it illustrates what happens when people come to the party, without contributing their fair share. Something has to give.

Yes of course some native labour and immigrants do contribute to exports but not enough. If you look at the balance of payments for the UK, since 1998, the country has been running a consistent trade deficit (country getting poorer). During that time, according to Migration Watch, 85% of population growth is associated with immigration.

If the Government's stance that immigration is making the country richer, how come the country is still in a trade deficit while at the same time we have record levels of immigration? I don't doubt that immigrants contribute to the economy but the problem is they don't contribute enough to keep up the wealth per captia figure. If what the government is saying is the case, then I would have expected the increased immigration to have pulled the UK into a trade surplus by now, but it has not.

In my illustration, the friends you pick up represent the increase in the population.Using partial contribution to wealth by uncontrolled immigration, of the 5 friends you pick up on the way they each have £90 in their pocket. They make a contribution but not enough to keep you all with £100 to spend. So you now have 5 x £100 + 5 x £90 = £950 between you, £95 each. Still enough for great night out but maybe just trimming a bit on the meal. However, what you could also do is go the the bank and borrow £50 to make it up to £1000. So now you have £1000 between the 10 of you but now you owe the bank £50.

If you keep on expanding this model of picking more friends on the way who also keep adding to the pot but always slightly less than £100, you collectively end up poorer per head. Thus to keep up the £100 per head spending, you need to keep borrowing a bit more each time to keep up the appearance you still have £100 per head to spend. Of course you don't because you're building up a debt. So you either choose to keep borrowing to mask the shortfall (ala Gordon Brown) or you cut back try to spend less (austerity, does that ring a bell?). We are so badly off, that even with spending cuts, we're still borrowing more money.

The country is spending more on outgoings than income hence the deficit. And we're still not building enough homes. If the increase in population was generating a commensurate amount of exports, the said companies and their employees would be earning enough from imported money to pay for their own houses and be paying a lot more taxes to give to the Government to give them the means to build more schools and indeed enough to pay the doctors. But that isn't happening either.

Unless of course you can show me how it is happening.

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 12:02

Bronze it seems to me that you are showing a correlation between immigration and lower GDP per capita, but this doesn't demonstrate a causal link. How about the impact of all the other internal and external economic factors on the UK?

After Brexit you could (maybe, maybe not) control the immigration factor, but it's not implausible that many other economic factors would degrade significantly, thus leaving Britain in a worse position overall.

BronzeBust · 21/04/2016 12:11

Lurked
Immigration actually causes economic growth because the rate of consumption increases, which due to the multiplier effect leads to an increase in all other factors of AD, and sustains both long run and short run growth.

Yes of course the more people we have, on balance the more that money flows. Economic growth does not necessarily lead to an increase of wealth of the country.

If the total growth of the economy is driven by internal consumption with a nil increase in exports, then that will no make any difference to the wealth of the country.

That is proven by the fact that we are still in a trade deficit despite all the economic growth.

fourmummy · 21/04/2016 12:16

Chalala yes, both points are debatable, and there are no guarantees. However, the EU has not protected our sector from instability to date (apart from in specific ways - linked to academic freedom), so there are no guarantees there either. I'm currently reading about arguments regarding academic freedom and Brexit. Need to go but will return with some figures.

Chalalala · 21/04/2016 12:21

Yep fourmummy I'm also spending way too much time looking up figures and arguments when I'm, uh, kind of supposed to be doing other stuff Blush

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