Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Does anyone know how quickly things would set in action if the vote was to leave?

What happens to those British who have moved recently to other EU countries or those currently working in the EU?

There is a two year period to renegotiate terms, but no real understanding if a consensus wasn't during that time.

Basically at least two years of uncertainty.

pigletjohn

On your last point, very much agree wrt risk of consequent instability in Europe in event of brexit.

I have planned for this by balancing equities with US trackers and USD denominated stocks (not just US markets).

I am Remain, but if the worst should happen I am hoping to make enough money to drown my sorrows.

From the time a country gives notice of resignation from the EU, the effective date is:

• the date mutually agreed

or

• if no agreement, two years from the date notice was given.

(there is scope for the date to be extended but only by unanimous agreement of all the EU members, so even one awkward or unsympathetic member will be enough to scupper it)

In the event of a "leave" vote, whoever is in government at the time will presumably give notice, and not spend an indeterminate number of years prevaricating.

I believe our sign up to the ECHR is aside from our EU membership so would still be an obligation on UK govt to abide by some HR legislation as a member of the Council of Europe

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/what-are-the-consequences-for-human-rights-if-we-change-our-relationship-with-the-eu/

Will a leave vote guarantee a resignation from the EU?

whippet Technically, human rights are supposed to be separate to the EU. The U.K. has been a member of the European Convention on Human Rights since long before we joined the EU and the ECHR includes many countries which are not in the EU.

That said, being a signatory to the ECHR has been a requirement for countries wishing to join the EU for a long time, and since the Treaty of Lisbon took effect, the EU itself has been a signatory to the ECHR.

It's never been put to the test, but I think that means an EU member state cannot unilaterally decide to withdraw from the ECHR.

If we leave the EU, there is nothing to stop us withdrawing from the ECHR.

The Human Rights Act is based on the provisions of the ECHR. Nobody knows yet what the proposed new Bill of Rights would contain, or how it would differ from the Human Rights Act. But if it is going to differ substantially from the HRA, we would need to withdraw from the ECHR first.

Everything seems to have gone very quiet on the human rights front. I suspect they are waiting to see whether we leave the EU or not before taking any decisions about withdrawing from the ECHR.

That's a very long-winded way of saying that although technically human rights are separate to EU law, leaving the EU would give the government more freedom to restrict our human rights, yes.

I believe that's what we're voting on.

Only if you trust the UK government.

Article 50 is pretty straightforward, I think.

Can I ask those in the know / Jeannie ? muffin ? -

What would the benefit be of my DH and 2 DC applying for Irish passports (already hold UK ones) versus me applying for British citizenship/passport (but retaining y irish passport as well)? I'm still flummoxed by how many people say they're applying for Irish passports in the event of Brexit...

I believe that's what the Greeks thought they were voting on last summer

I thought the Greeks were voting on "do we accept this offer of money from the EU?"

And they voted "no" apparently in the expectation that it would trigger an even more generous offer.

but it is entirely different from what the UK will be voting on.

muffin - not gone totally quiet but watered down and re-framed, I'd say:

next.ft.com/content/b2f99794-c9b7-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44

Square not sure I understand your point, no, that isn't what Greece was voting on.

We will have a remain or leave vote.

In the country where I lived, it was reported they voted no in full expectation of leaving EU and going back to the drachma!

Can't comment on your information, but I can assure you that wasn't the vote in Greece.

Ginger - people could have lots of different reasons for doing it.

Some people just want to retain their EU citizenship and the free movement rights that come with it. I know people who have applied for Irish passports even though they have no plans to move to Ireland or anywhere else, just to keep that avenue open to them. Some people want it for their kids so they can have those opportunities, especially if they're thinking about going to uni in Ireland or elsewhere in Europe and don't want to have to pay international fees.

For EU citizens living here or British citizens living in the EU, an end to free movement rights could cause huge problems so a lot of people are trying to get dual citizenship of the country they live in.

For families, it's generally better if everyone has the same movement rights.

In my case, I would want to get dual citizenship of my partner's country as soon as possible so I have those free movement rights as an individual (and not just on some kind of spousal visa).

I've also just had a horrible thought. At the moment we have a minimum income requirement for UK citizens wanting to bring their non-EU spouse here. What if that extends to EU citizens in the future? If my partner comes to live in the UK with me, I will not be able to give up my job. What if I get made redundant? What if I get sick? What if my parents get sick and I need to care for them? What if I just want to stop work for a couple of years to be at home with children? If he was here on some kind of spousal visa which required me to have a minimum level of income, that could be very tricky.

So you see...lots of reasons.

The point being that Greeks were given a referendum with a clear understanding that the outcome would be respected and supported by the government, which then did not happen because the government went against the outcome.

I was not living in the EU, and do appreciate it may have been reported with a different angle, but I am still wondering whether the government is actually bound to adhere to any referendum outcome within any specific timeframe.

AFAIK the British Constitution (which is not defined, and says whatever people think it says, at the time they think it) does not say that governments have to obey referenda. Parliament can do anything it wants.

Ginger if your husband and 2 DC apply for Irish passports then if the UK leave the EU and lose benefits like free travel (no visas) etc they could still avail of this as they would be travelling on Irish European passports. I think then they could also work in other EU countries etc without work visas and avail of all the other EU benefits the UK may potentially lose if they leave

Thanks for the FT link by the way Ginger - unfortunately I can't get round the paywall!

muffin re the spousal visa for non EU spouses, there are ways around the minimum income clause and in any case I think if you go down the income route, it only needs to be just you for phase 1. It's worth checking it in detail if you are concerned. I doubt it will happen though, but understand the worry.

Sorry muffin it didn't come up under paywall for me but if you search Michael Gove Human Rights you should get the latest update from around February this year.

Thanks both for your POV on the passport issue. Much to consider in the event of an exit I think. I need to speak to my parents about whether they need to consider applying for dual citizenship here (have lived in UK for 30 years) if there is ever likely to be implications for access to health and social care for non- UK citizens in future if we exit...

Thanks, Dolphin. I'm just projecting at the moment - no one knows what will happen. But just crossing my fingers for a remain vote so we can get on with planning our future!

Just answering jeanne I'm one of the PP that said I'd try to get a EU passport via Irish citizenship. Just to clarify - my husband and kids are already Irish and that's nothing to do with the referendum (all to do with Irish passports being easier and cheaper to apply for in the case of the latter). It's only me that would be applying in a Brexiting way.

I will be voting to remain in Europe and plan to stay here and raise my kids here as Europeans. I just want the option to for me and my family to leave the UK permanently if it all goes tits up. My kids are small and I need to think about their future - education, healthcare, job opportunities all the boring stuff you have to think about as a parent.

If we did leave the UK post Brexit then I imagine we'd be working and paying into local health care systems so wouldn't be draining the Irish healthcare? Eg if we moved to the NL we'd be paying into their mandatory insurance system. Don't know much about other countries but I do hope that would be the case!