What will falling child numbers in London mean for school choices?

[Yammer94]

Hi everyone,

Im wondering what people think about the shrinking child population in london and what that will mean for school options?

I have a 7, 4 and 1 year old and we are constantly weighing up whether to stay in London or not for lifestyle and education.

My experience with schools (in southwark) so far has been that the already best schools remain popular with wait lists, while the average schools get worse and worse and start to struggle with numbers.

What do others think/have experience of?

I wonder whether this would be a really good time to reduce the infant class size cap. If the popular schools can only take 25 per class, that would mean more pupils in the less popular ones, and then they're less likely to have to move to mixed year group classes or possibly even close. Yes, it would need a bit more funding (or perhaps the popular schools would just have to make the same cuts the less popular ones are already having to make because they haven't got full classes), but not as much as introducing it when schools are all full and extra classes would have to be created. Of course it would be really unpopular with those whose children would miss out on the places at the popular schools, but smaller classes all round might be a really positive thing.

One thing that is beginning to happen in some places is that an unviable primary school has been replaced with a special school. There does seem to be a shortage of special schools, so that could be a really good thing in the longer term, although the process of school closure is never going to be easy.

Ah interesting. I think a guy at the IFS was advocating a similar thing. As it will make schools already facing financial pressures take on more pressures, I reckon it will not happen. Unless the state legally reduces caps to 25.

What i have seen at some schools here is that actually small classes are being made for SEND kids to go off and learn by themselves, so in effect reducing the standard class size to 20-25. Ofcourse when the SEND kids are in the mainstream class it then effectively takes the class work up to 35+ given the amount of attention those kids need.

At primary level, some schools are closing and the oversubscribed ones are seeing their catchment areas increase. In our area of London schools that once had catchments of 0.2 or 0.3 miles are now 0.9. So families that previously wouldn’t have a hope of getting a place now do.

It’s expected to hit the secondaries in the next few years which is why some are forming trusts with primaries to try to ensure a steady flow of pupils.

The problem with reducing the infant ckass size (which I agree with in principal), is that schools in other parts of the country are still growing. Theres currently planning permisdion for another school in our village. Which will make 3 primaries and one secondary (ehich might need to expand again soon, it covers a large area, not just the village)

Oh interesting...I hadn't thought of that. Is there new builds coming up near you? Or is it a new school to amalgamate much smaller ones elsewhere nearby that ate undersubacribed? Geographic spread will be a bigger issue in the country than the city i assume.

We're in a London borough and the most popular schools still have tight catchments - e.g. 0.12, 0.19 miles. They have got smaller since last year. So it's a bit unrealistic to think you'll suddenly be able to get a place easily at the most sought-after schools from miles across the borough. There are lots of undersubscribed schools, but they aren't the ones everyone wants to get their kids into.

Some schools close down and merge and that makes sense somewhere like London. I read articles about parents complaining that their local school had closed, but the next nearest school is 10 mins walk rather than 5 minutes away, so it's still an easy walk and it makes no sense to keep 2 half empty schools open when they are close together.

I've noticed a lot of the schools that are closing around here are often the Catholic/CofE schools, so there will be greater percentage of schools that are secular overall, which is good as they are open to all.