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Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 7

885 replies

ICouldBeVioletSky · 17/06/2025 00:02

Continuation of previous threads discussing VAT on independent school fees. The thread title is a headline from a Times article last autumn.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5237575-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5242586-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-2
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5280646-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-3
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-4
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5317397-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-5
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5337850-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-6

Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 5 | Mumsnet

Starting a continuation thread in anticipation of the fourth one filling up… https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-priv...

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5317397-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-5

OP posts:
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28
CinnamonCinnabar · 06/10/2025 07:15

Any updates on how the recruitment of new teachers to the state sector is going?

CatkinToadflax · 06/10/2025 07:18

The delighted cries of “bravo!” and “it’s a very popular policy!” seem to have reduced somewhat since it’s been stated that none of the VAT monies raised whatsoever (however few) are going to be spent on state education.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 07:20

Gattopardo · 06/10/2025 00:02

We need to wait for proper state and independent school census figures, published by the Dept for Education in June 2026, collected in January 2026.

Only that will give us a meaningful measure of independent and state school pupil numbers compared to the previous year.

Even then, unless the DfE publishes some new data about in/ outflows, it will be very difficult for your causal observer to say much about pupils joining or leaving the state/private sector.

Someone with access to national pupil database DfE data will eventually do the sums to show who joined and who left, and compare this to state school cohorts over the same period.

Until then it’s all complete speculation.

Edited

Again with gaslighting.

We know for a fact:

  • between Sept 24-July 25 there were 17K DC who left independent schools
  • 81 schools closed which is twice the number in an 'average year'
  • only 2 mainstream independent schools opened ie not SEN specialist schools which are classed as independent in the data but are funded by taxpayer via EHCPs

The ISC census now says, based on numbers in independent schools, that there are now 25K fewer DC in them.

So no, it's not speculation. Labour are refusing to collect or track data on the impact so no, a future DfE set of data wont capture the impact.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 07:21

CinnamonCinnabar · 06/10/2025 07:15

Any updates on how the recruitment of new teachers to the state sector is going?

🤣 well we know that most schools are having to make redundancies so I'm sure it's all going great. Notice how Labour never talk about that now?

EHCPerhaps · 06/10/2025 08:30

Newbutoldfather · 05/10/2025 16:37

Girls’ schools hit hardest by VAT on fees

https://www.thetimes.com/article/ce2bbc45-d8a2-45bd-a9e6-b544476b7ce9?shareToken=8526655de6eabff9fe3a3ad7fb2fdad6

Well, according to today’s Times, the number leaving is 17,000.

And, don’t forget, you would expect 3-4k less per annum just due to demographics.

So, clearly some are leaving, but this suggests far fewer than 25,000.

This more punitive effect on single sex schools for girls demonstrates, just as many of us have already feared, that the effects of this policy are both sexist and ableist.

Sexist; since many girls need a female-only school environment for various reasons, including just that they would like to be at school through the day without routinised sexual harassment from male peers, which in this world of smartphones and accessible porn is a significant problem in many mixed schools. And abeist, in that this goes even more so for many girls with SEND and mental health needs!who might be able to manage in mainstream only because it’s less socially stressful (because it’s single sex) education, especially during their teenage years. That single sex environment allows for those girls to be in school and to reach their academic potential whatever it may be.

A single sex school might also be preferred by any girl of any level of need or regardless of her background, who would like to study for her exams in a girls-only school, given that it’s been evidenced that girls do better academically if they are learning in a single sex school environment. (The opposite is true I believe for boys, who do better in mixed schools).

Yet the gov gives no shits about putting both these private and state girls schools out of reach for thousands of girls. One factor not accounted for in the analysis here is that among state girls mainstream secondary schools, extremely few of them are NOT already academically selective.

So if you have a girl who would benefit from that environment but she is not an academic high flyer (and is without the higher academic ability which would have given her some level of advantage in life), then that lower performing or higher-needs girl does not have as good odds to be able to find herself a state girls’ school place, now.

Another factor is that many girls’ schools in the UK both private and state sectors, will have a strong religious ethos due to their founding history. And while that ethos may be perfect for many girls and their families, again the presence or absence of that religiously influenced curriculum in a girls-only state school, can be a barrier to a girl finding a single-sex state education.

That lack of opportunity for a female single- sex education goes especially in the scenario that a girls’ private school has closed down or become unaffordable for her family thanks to this government policy which is obviously aimed at shutting down as many fee paying schools as possible.

I’m so disgusted at this gleeful shutting down by a government, of options for improved academic outcomes for girls, and for improved economic outcomes for girls.

In these times where the government worries endlessly about the welfare bill, to not allow girls to advance themselves as much as possible at school according to their needs, is madness. Girls are more likely to be in lower paid jobs and are more likely to end up taking on the burden of their childcare affecting their future earning power, and are then more likely to be reliant on state pension support. Girls schools were invented partly to help women have economic freedom and more choices about their lives.

The lifelong struggle to set up girls’ schools by pioneering women in Victorian and Edwardian times, pioneering against systemic sexism that women today can only shudder at, is just being chucked away because thos government doesn’t want to engage in the reality that the UK is still a very sexist place compared to lots of other countries. Where is the sense that government policies should never be actively compounding that?

As a descendant of several working class women who were first in their family to go to university, who were enabled to do so because they themselves went to girls’ schools run by some of the first generations of women who were able to go to university at all, who inspired their female pupils to go on to have choices in life beyond the limits of what their contemporary society was telling them they were born to do, and to become teachers for girls in their turn, I can really feel how horribly backward this step is.

CatkinToadflax · 06/10/2025 08:34

Brilliant post @EHCPerhaps (and I say that as a mother of boys).

EHCPerhaps · 06/10/2025 08:44

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 07:43

Hope they paid VAT on that £1 million

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy852jq7v25o

Interesting question, looks like as taxpayers we all did pay the VAT for those kids yes.

Parents in UK Armed Forces must pay VAT on private school fees from Jan 2025 — there is no exemption just for being in the Armed Forces.

The internet tells me that parents in UK Armed Forces must pay VAT on private school fees from Jan 2025 like anyone else— no exemption just for being in the Armed Forces. And that MOD’s CEA scheme has been adjusted to try to cover the increase caused by VAT for the portion of the fee they contribute (The MOD covers up to 90% of the fees so the parents will need to pay at least 10% of the fees themselves which now includes VAT. Which Amy or may not be sustainable for that family.

However the MOD’s CEA scheme has been increased to cover the fees increase caused by VAT for the portion of the fee that they- or we indirectly as the taxpayer- contribute. So we are paying the increased VAT for some military families’ kids to go to private school as well as covering a big proportion of their fees in the first place.

Given that spilt of funding as routine set up, why was there no allowance made for the always government-funded bit of those school fees to be exempted from VAT, to protect the taxpayer?

EHCPerhaps · 06/10/2025 08:53

Sorry for all the typos- writing in a pissed off way while on the move!

I also don’t mean any of this to be discounting the many challenges that male pupils will also face as a result of this VAT change- which are numerous: And that goes especially boys with SEND or a history of trauma who are coping in mainstream private schools now and who may really benefit from the smaller class sizes, more access to outdoor space and to sports which can be a big support for some SEND, and so on.

Boys who need to leave from private schools and boys who need to apply to state schools from other state schools may also find huge challenges for in finding a suitable state school place (in a single sex school or mixed) directly thanks to this policy putting pressure on both state school places locally and on SEND support in those state schools.

CatkinToadflax · 06/10/2025 09:09

EHCPerhaps · 06/10/2025 08:53

Sorry for all the typos- writing in a pissed off way while on the move!

I also don’t mean any of this to be discounting the many challenges that male pupils will also face as a result of this VAT change- which are numerous: And that goes especially boys with SEND or a history of trauma who are coping in mainstream private schools now and who may really benefit from the smaller class sizes, more access to outdoor space and to sports which can be a big support for some SEND, and so on.

Boys who need to leave from private schools and boys who need to apply to state schools from other state schools may also find huge challenges for in finding a suitable state school place (in a single sex school or mixed) directly thanks to this policy putting pressure on both state school places locally and on SEND support in those state schools.

Totally agree. And I think it’s so easy to assume with boys that SEN automatically means behavioural problems. This was completely the opposite for my DS. He was tiny for his age (born at 24 weeks), very immature, very gentle, completely socially unaware, terrified of noise and crowds. He couldn’t cope in a standard state school mainstream classroom. We tried but even with 1:1 support it was a disaster. A small, quiet private school was his haven until a special school could take him.

Newbutoldfather · 06/10/2025 09:55

@twistyizzy ,

You keep talking about ‘gaslighting’. Do you know what the word means or where it comes from? Having a different opinion or disagreeing, or even questioning facts is not gaslighting. Trying to make someone believe that they are losing their mind is what gaslighting means. I don’t think you are starting to doubt your sanity over VAT on private school fees.

But you produce data as propaganda and use several internally conflicting arguments to say how awful it is!

We know for a fact:

  • between Sept 24-July 25 there were 17K DC who left independent schools
  • 81 schools closed which is twice the number in an 'average year'
  • only 2 mainstream independent schools opened ie not SEN specialist schools which are classed as independent in the data but are funded by taxpayer via EHCPs

Even if these are facts, they omit important issues.

Demographic change means there are 50,000 fewer pupils overall in school per annum. So, proportionately, that accounts for roughly 3,500 pupils.

We have had consolidation in the sector for years with fewer larger schools. VAT will only accelerate this. So, only pupil numbers matter, not school closures which are inevitable in a private competitive sector.

Not all pupils leaving go to state schools. Many go abroad, into home ed or other private schools.

So it is worth looking at and discussing numbers but not just throwing them around as ‘gotchas’ with no context or nuance.

Shambles123 · 06/10/2025 10:23

I dont think we can call it yet. A lot of people are hanging on for natural breaks of yr3, 7 and 12.
Reckon turnout for church form signing in our area this weekend where the most desirable state school selects on education. Current year 5 attendance at church from the local private schools has skyrocketed as they were in time from July 24 election to get the requisite two years in.

flawlessflipper · 06/10/2025 10:29

According to the official government’s establishment data, more than 2 ‘other independent schools’ (which is what mainstream independent schools are classified as) have an open date in the 24/25 academic year.

Apex secondary school for boys - 6/2/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
Apex secondary school for girls - 6/2/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
Cambridge Muslim secondary school - 17/7/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
Edullect Academy Independent School- 5/6/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
Nuqtah primary school - 29/1/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
The Light Christian school - 10/2/2025 - you can see the official open date here.
Talmud Torah Yetev Lev D'Rabbeinu Yoel - 4/12/2024 - you can see the official open date here.
St Michael Abbey - 14/8/25 - you can see the official open date here - although this was an existing establishment opened under the banner of a new school.
Wetherby Pembridge - 22/8/2025 - you can see the official open date here.

Yes, most are registered as faith schools, but that doesn’t mean they are not also independent schools.

I haven’t listed the ones that are technically registered as ‘other independent schools’ rather than ‘other independent special schools’ but aren’t really mainstream schools.

Araminta1003 · 06/10/2025 10:47

There are going to be libraries in every state primary school, 10 million to be spent across 1700 - did you not all hear this massive news from the Labour Party conference?! My 11 year old worked out that it is a few thousand thrown at each school. Now who is going to staff “the library’” and who is going to pay for that?
It is all about the LIBRARIES because did you not know? The Tories close the libraries!!

Meanwhile, international private equity groups rubbing their hands in glee at the very lucrative SEND crisis private education SEND school bonanza that they are failing to sort out.

Interestingly, literacy per se does not seem to have decreased that much in the intake that just took their English language GCSEs. The problem is more with the exam boards doing a shit job not marking consistently. Too many kids simply failing and others having to pay to get their scripts remarked. Not enough markers either it seems or not enough who can do a proper job!

Araminta1003 · 06/10/2025 10:57

VAT on private schools is simply partisan Labour bullshit. Has been from the get go. As private school pupils are a minority in the greater scheme of things, they simply bank on not enough people having a vote to care about this issue. Although it is completely wrong and illogical and always was. The evidence is there that it never worked internationally and was from the start. As they have cocked up so much other stuff, I doubt anyone is going to make them pay for this one either. Most rich people actually probably lost far more money due to their economic failures than what they have to pay extra in private school VAT. Even people just making their fees for SEND kids, the economic fallout from this Government is likely far worse than the VAT. Pretty sure it is a one term Government now, no? So what is the point in even getting worked up anymore? It is going to be a right wing Tory/Reform coalition.

It is a shame. They Labour had a massive majority. They could have done so much with it! They wasted it, squandered it completely. Pointless crappy policies and infighting. It is all so depressing and disappointing.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 10:58

Newbutoldfather · 06/10/2025 09:55

@twistyizzy ,

You keep talking about ‘gaslighting’. Do you know what the word means or where it comes from? Having a different opinion or disagreeing, or even questioning facts is not gaslighting. Trying to make someone believe that they are losing their mind is what gaslighting means. I don’t think you are starting to doubt your sanity over VAT on private school fees.

But you produce data as propaganda and use several internally conflicting arguments to say how awful it is!

We know for a fact:

  • between Sept 24-July 25 there were 17K DC who left independent schools
  • 81 schools closed which is twice the number in an 'average year'
  • only 2 mainstream independent schools opened ie not SEN specialist schools which are classed as independent in the data but are funded by taxpayer via EHCPs

Even if these are facts, they omit important issues.

Demographic change means there are 50,000 fewer pupils overall in school per annum. So, proportionately, that accounts for roughly 3,500 pupils.

We have had consolidation in the sector for years with fewer larger schools. VAT will only accelerate this. So, only pupil numbers matter, not school closures which are inevitable in a private competitive sector.

Not all pupils leaving go to state schools. Many go abroad, into home ed or other private schools.

So it is worth looking at and discussing numbers but not just throwing them around as ‘gotchas’ with no context or nuance.

You just can't help yourself can you? Preaching a supposed superiority.

If we take off 3.5K DC then it's still 20k which have left.

Sept 25 was always going to be the barometer. Most parents tried not to disrupt their DC mid year so waited until July to pull out.

Araminta1003 · 06/10/2025 10:59

“Yes, most are registered as faith schools, but that doesn’t mean they are not also independent schools.”

Quoting the opening of faith schools in this divisive climate is insensitive at best! And aggravating at worst!

flawlessflipper · 06/10/2025 11:01

It isn’t insensitive or aggravating to point out independent schools, be they faith schools or otherwise, have opened when they have. I only mentioned they were faith schools because the cry from some is they are faith schools so they don’t count.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 11:02

flawlessflipper · 06/10/2025 11:01

It isn’t insensitive or aggravating to point out independent schools, be they faith schools or otherwise, have opened when they have. I only mentioned they were faith schools because the cry from some is they are faith schools so they don’t count.

They are Jewish/Muslim/Quaker schools which only allow entry to DC of those faiths so they aren't accessible to DC who have been displaced from mainstream independent schools

flawlessflipper · 06/10/2025 11:04

They are still independent schools though, which was my point.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 11:05

Newbutoldfather · 06/10/2025 09:55

@twistyizzy ,

You keep talking about ‘gaslighting’. Do you know what the word means or where it comes from? Having a different opinion or disagreeing, or even questioning facts is not gaslighting. Trying to make someone believe that they are losing their mind is what gaslighting means. I don’t think you are starting to doubt your sanity over VAT on private school fees.

But you produce data as propaganda and use several internally conflicting arguments to say how awful it is!

We know for a fact:

  • between Sept 24-July 25 there were 17K DC who left independent schools
  • 81 schools closed which is twice the number in an 'average year'
  • only 2 mainstream independent schools opened ie not SEN specialist schools which are classed as independent in the data but are funded by taxpayer via EHCPs

Even if these are facts, they omit important issues.

Demographic change means there are 50,000 fewer pupils overall in school per annum. So, proportionately, that accounts for roughly 3,500 pupils.

We have had consolidation in the sector for years with fewer larger schools. VAT will only accelerate this. So, only pupil numbers matter, not school closures which are inevitable in a private competitive sector.

Not all pupils leaving go to state schools. Many go abroad, into home ed or other private schools.

So it is worth looking at and discussing numbers but not just throwing them around as ‘gotchas’ with no context or nuance.

" Not all pupils leaving go to state schools. Many go abroad, into home ed or other private schools" is a perfect example of what I say about you. If displaced DCs are going to other independent schools then they wouldn't be logged as no longer in the independent sector would they?

The data I quoted is the fall in number of DC in independent schools. Why bring home schooling into it when I never said they were all moving to state, I merely said that they were no longer in independent schools. You constantly twist and misinterpret my posts.

Marshmallow4545 · 06/10/2025 11:07

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 11:02

They are Jewish/Muslim/Quaker schools which only allow entry to DC of those faiths so they aren't accessible to DC who have been displaced from mainstream independent schools

Exactly! Faith schools are fundamentally different than regular independent schools. The motive behind joining such a school and potentially the aims and output of the school is often completely different. Conflating faith schools with other independent schools is dangerous as it disguises the real trends that are emerging.

Do we as a country want more independent faith focussed schools to replace some of the closed less religious independent schools? In the current political climate, this is a question worth asking.

SheilaFentiman · 06/10/2025 15:39

Given that spilt of funding as routine set up, why was there no allowance made for the always government-funded bit of those school fees to be exempted from VAT, to protect the taxpayer?

Because VAT doesn't work that way. VAT is placed on a product or service, and every customer of that product or service pays it. Just as government departments pay VAT on any building works done on their offices, or biscuits bought for meetings, or software bought for their computer systems.

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 15:43

SheilaFentiman · 06/10/2025 15:39

Given that spilt of funding as routine set up, why was there no allowance made for the always government-funded bit of those school fees to be exempted from VAT, to protect the taxpayer?

Because VAT doesn't work that way. VAT is placed on a product or service, and every customer of that product or service pays it. Just as government departments pay VAT on any building works done on their offices, or biscuits bought for meetings, or software bought for their computer systems.

Yeh because the education of children is just like biscuits! Unfortunately in the eyes of Labour that's exactly what it is.

List of countries which tax education:
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UK

SheilaFentiman · 06/10/2025 15:47

twistyizzy · 06/10/2025 15:43

Yeh because the education of children is just like biscuits! Unfortunately in the eyes of Labour that's exactly what it is.

List of countries which tax education:
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UK

I'm not talking about 'biscuits' being like education. I am talking about why exceptions to VAT do not work in the way the PP suggested. The government spends money on a million and one VATable products and services, and pays VAT on them as any other customer would.

Hope that clarifies my point.