Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 6

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads to discuss VAT on independent school fees.

The fact a government can use education + schools as a source of income says everything you need to know about Labour.

Not even a source of income - a source of greater cost to the taxpayer. But, importantly, it's going to be simpler.

Ok it was someone else’s theory and simplifying tax is not the reason you support education tax. You had me going there 😄

So just to be clear, why is it you support education tax? Be honest.

Because I’m a flat earther.

Oh no, wait. That’s your fever dream.

Fair enough, I guess I can see that. Closing schools, less education options, decline in overall education, less people learning science etc. might lead to more flat earthers. Still think it’s crazy but at least you have finally given a reason. We got there in the end 😊

I think if you’re regarding ChatGPT as actually providing you with new information on this then you clearly are not the kind of poster who is bothered about education in any meaningful way.

Tell you what, why don’t we save the taxpayer money and close all the schools, and just give each kid a tablet and access to ChatGPT? That sure would save a lot of money, and why not?

Isn't Marlborough House/Vinehall in that area? A merger just occurred between the two schools, presumably because neither could survive independently.
Local prep schools are struggling in the area and smaller independent secondary schools are struggling for numbers. I have a friend with a child at Mayfield and they have just collapsed their boarding houses (i can't remember the exact numbers, but something like from 5 boarding houses to 2, with the redundancies associated) My brother teaches in the sector in Gloucestershire and says almost all independent schools (unless you're Eton, Harrow, Winchester etc) are having redundancies.
The situation is dire according to him, this year is only the tip of the iceberg. A few will try and hold on but fail in the next 2-3 years. Will be interesting to see what happens.

As a parent that had 6 children in private/public schools throughout their childhood (Wally hall, Sevenoaks , Tonbridge, & Kent college ) I take exception to these remarks.. my argument is that no more or no less schools are closing … it’s sad to say but if your ‘buffer’ between affordability and out of scope is 20% then you can’t afford it ! ..

I’m in an area with quite a few long-established schools and we are just told several may merge/close - these are schools with 100+ years tradition each and up until now have been financially fine, even expanding. Apparently enrolments are down so much for next year that schools who had no issues attracting pupils are facing less than 50 percent of their usual enrolments at entrance points like reception, yr 7 etc. The situation will not be clear until the new academic year starts and from then on it will snowball dramatically.

No. If your ‘buffer’ between affordability and out of scope is 20% and then the government deliberately adds a 20% tax then you could afford it, but now - purely because of deliberate government interference - you can't.

And if that applies to enough people, then schools close (with the attendant misery on even those who can afford the government gouging them). The policy also costs the taxpayer more money than it makes.

Funny how everyone panicked over the US imposing a 20% tariff on UK imports, and Labour went to all sorts of lengths to get the tariffs reduced because of the economic harm the tariffs would cause... but a remarkably similar artificial new tax they introduced on the private education sector is all A-OK, natural market forces, and if it damages schools then they should just shut. Hmm...

More schools are closing because of the education tax policies, you’re incorrect to be blunt. Even Labour haven’t claimed it won’t close down schools. The question is how many are closing and how does this compare to the benefits of implementing an education tax. Since there are no benefits to education tax, my view is one school closing is too many.

‘it’s sad to say but if your ‘buffer’ between affordability and out of scope is 20% then you can’t afford it.’

Liz Truss’s budget pushed up mortgage interest rates by 16% and led to an 50% increase in mortgage orders of repossessions, could those people not afford homes? Increasing the cost of anything by a fifth overnight will quite obviously cause carnage.

Exactly. Why is it children’s education that is ok to be damaged as such.

Talk about upside down priorities. Out of all the sectors and areas of doing well, don’t target education. As an asset it’s valuable, and damaging it is a ridiculous thing to do.

Yes they are in exactly this area. And they’re not the only two that have struggled - multiple other schools in the area are restructuring staff and have falling pupil numbers.

@EasternStandard ,

‘Why is it Ok for children’s education to be damaged as such’

I always find this kind of comment a bit Marie Antoinettish!

I could afford to eat at The Ritz more often if there wasn’t that pesky VAT. But I am not saying ‘why is a basic right like eating being damaged’.

Private schools are the luxury hotels of education, not the basic right to an education, especially the famous ones that people talk about on here. If you can’t afford the Ritz, you might need to downgrade to a less prestigious 5 star hotel, but the Ritz won’t be in any danger of closing down.

At the bottom of the food chain, though, if not enough people can afford the one and two star equivalent private schools, they may need to merge or close.

The sector has been expanding for years and a 5% retrenchment only takes us back to where we were a few years ago.

Oh god, we've got a newbie...

You do realise that over 50% of private schools are for special educational needs?

That over 25% of pupils in private schools are SEND and the vast majority of them have been failed by the state options and parents are sending them to private schools because they have no other option - and would be only too delighted if the state would provide appropriate schooling?

The Etons, the Harrows, the Cheltenham Ladies are a tiny percentage of private education in this country.

Can you also explain why it's a good idea for the taxpayer to fund the education of children whose parent's were willingly paying for it, and why it's so great that when one of these 'lesser' private schools collapses it's unemployment time for the teachers, support staff, cooks, grounds staff, cleaners etc... especially if the school is also a large local employer?

I don’t think this works. If you shrink a part of a sector the state doesn’t pick up the higher burden.

Which is part of why the U.K. is an outlier.

He's not new but he is condescending and believes that its fine for education to be turned into revenue raising stream for government

This is the sector.

@twistyizzy ,

.
’The share of pupils across the UK in private schools has remained around 6–7% for at least the last 20 years (or about 560,000–570,000 pupils in England). This has occurred despite a 20% real-terms increase in average private school fees since 2010 and a 55% rise since 2003. Unsurprisingly, private school attendance is largely concentrated at the very top of the income distribution. There is also evidence to suggest that it is often motivated by wider factors, such as culture and values.’

From the IFS report. I know you will take issues with the conclusions but I doubt you will dispute the data?

Your chart represents consolidation, not diminution.
Anecdotally, I taught at two private schools. Both expanded while I was there, one substantially (350 odd to 550).

That is only because we have had a lot of rich internationals arrive and pay taxes here and send their kids to private schools. They propped the percentage up.

I am seriously concerned about universities now. I reckon taxing education sends the wrong message full stop and the 6 per cent possible levy mentioned in the White Paper on international student fees is complete madness. Couple that with the anti immigrant rhetoric, this country, on paper, looks extremely anti aspiration and anti immigration now. Good luck with growing the economy when they have really relied on inward investment and inward talent for the last 20 years.

I do dispute data because in the court case the government's own figures were finally revealed and they evidenced much more harm to be predicted to be done than IFS had. Funny how they never published those figures.. .

I keep on reminding you that your limited experience of 2 independent schools doesn't extrapolate across whole sector

Everything has risen along those % lines per year over that period ie utility bills, wages, pensions etc and those are what school fees pay for!
Most parents budget for 5-8% increase per year, we don't budget for 25-30% per year (fee rise + 20% VAT).

It’s so disheartening that there are still people who believe private schools are solely luxury options. For my son, being able to access a state education would have been the luxury. I know our situation is very unusual, but other people’s continued refusal to accept that not every child’s needs can be met in the state sector is really frustrating.

@twistyizzy ,

‘I do dispute data because in the court case the government's own figures were finally revealed and they evidenced much more harm to be predicted to be done than IFS had. Funny how they never published those figures.. .’

A prediction isn’t data.

‘I keep on reminding you that your limited experience of 2 independent schools doesn't extrapolate across whole sector’

Unlike you MN private school threads are not my obsession; I have avoided them for months.

Consolatidation does extrapolate. This can be shown mathematically by dividing the number of pupils and number of schools. It is also basic economics. Under about 500 pupils the SLT, HR and marketing function are too expensive on a per pupil basis.

And… private school fees have arisen at way over inflation on a long term trend for about 30 years. That is a basic fact.

My own decent London day school cost my parents £700/term in 1983 when I left. It is now £11,000 per term (or about £9,000 ex vat).

If you put that in an inflation calculator and compare it to CPI, it is close to double. That is why schools are increasingly becoming a preserve of the rich (certainly if you have more than one child) and no longer the middle classes.