Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 6

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads to discuss VAT on independent school fees.

I haven’t commented on one of these threads for ages, as it is all a bit moot now.

But those saying that contextualisation favours switchers to state sixth form, based on percentage of applicants getting offers, really don’t understand correlation and causation.

Private schools encourage even anyone with a 1% chance of making Oxbridge to put in an application. For starters, it is a hard message to tell someone they aren’t good enough. Secondly, why would you tell a parent that when they will probably blame the school, and they are paying customers after all!

You do put all your schools when you put in an Oxbridge application and I am sure admissions tutors have become wise to the strategic switch by now.

Contextual offers aren’t really stats vs private, they are for pupils from really tough backgrounds and really tough schools.

You must only know shit private schools then. HTH.

And no VAT on private healthcare? Or gambling?

This really isn't true.

Private schools definitely don't shove everyone in for Oxbridge. They don't even want two students applying for the same college. It doesn't look good for their stats if they have a low offer to application rate.

Parents tend to value honesty. Most parents don't like setting their child up for failure or unhappiness.

I know people with contextual offers who were shocked to qualify.

Private schools encourage even anyone with a 1% chance of making Oxbridge to put in an application.

I agree that this is definitely not true - rather the very reverse. A very few independent schools put in a lot of kids for Oxbridge, but admissions tutors don’t like it, and most independent schools have learned nowadays not to put in candidates who aren’t competitive. Both Oxford and Cambridge now use pre-interview assessments and other criteria to deselect candidates who aren’t competitive before inviting to interview, and candidates from independent schools tend to get deselected at higher grade thresholds than state applicants.

Increasingly independent schools are much more targeted about who they will encourage to apply. In contrast, lots of state school applicants aren’t really competitive but are interviewed anyway as they might have contextual flags or other criteria.

Regarding the “switch to state for sixth form” issue - that’s been a thing for decades now, especially in areas which are 11-16/VII form college areas. It’s very common in my area to send very academic children private for 11-16 then to the best local state VII form for A-levels/IB with an eye to Oxbridge entrance. And it does make a little bit of difference regarding how likely admissions tutors are to accept. Not massively - but definitely marginally.

Private schools encourage even anyone with a 1% chance of making Oxbridge to put in an application.

My son’s certainly doesn’t.

Surely Oxbridge requires minimum 3 A stars predicted so no private school that does not believe the child in question will likely achieve that, is likely to be put forward? Except perhaps for eg Music or Classics, but even then, probably less likely. I think Music you have to do a high level of Music Theory.

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

@FairMindedMaiden
You wanted a reason, so I provided one. No ‘spite’ or ‘envy’ involved. Like I said, you didn’t like it last time either.

New Zealand applies GST at the same rate to virtually all goods and services - none of the myriad of exemptions and complicated assessments that lead to UK legal cases over whether something is a cake or a biscuit. It’s a much, much simpler system than the UK’s VAT system.

That is what is meant by simplifying the tax system. New Zealand has a lower GST rate than UK VAT but it raises a greater proportion of overall tax receipts.

So yes, with a similar simplified system you would be applying VAT to gambling, and private healthcare, and everything else that you point at and say it’s not fair that it doesn’t attract VAT. You could raise more tax with a simplified and more efficient system.

The numbers Labour anticipated are wrong, aren’t they?

They’ve messed up. I mean it was terrible anyway but they can’t even get that right.

When is the court outcome due?

You could raise more tax with a simplified and more efficient system.

I agree with that being much simpler. Taxing state boarding schools, private healthcare, nurseries, university fees, books, air fares etc would raise a lot of VAT. I’m not convinced how popular that would be though. For some reason, many argue that those things shouldn’t be taxed but see private education as fair game.

LOL this is an utterly absurd justification for an act of malice against children. You’re a bit of a worry.

@SabrinaThwaite legend!

😂😂😂
I wonder why people feel the need to exercise such a contortionist mental gymnastics... 🤔

To be fair. We started off with arguments like tax dodge/tax payer subsidies to PS, no school closures and 6500 new teachers. Then went to some school closures, no new teachers but half a breakfast muffin for state school kids. Then went to 100s of school closing and the policy might not break even. We’re now at 100s of schools closing, tens of thousands of children forced out the sector at a cost to the tax payer but… it might simplify tax!!

Yes, I guess we must find some justification for harming everyone including disabled and state educated children... and it must be a really hard task. I feel for the VAT supporters, I really do.

It is slim pickings for a damaging policy

Labour should have not bothered with the ‘tax loop hole’ and ‘not our children’ nonsense and gone straight for the ‘we’re going to close lots of schools and force children into state schools at the tax payers expense, but tax will be simpler’ line.

We could simplify it even further (as this is the 'benefit') - "We're going to cost tax payers more, but tax will be simpler." Simples!

It will make a very interesting academic case study in years to come in terms of political gaslighting, using a fake tax to justify „something“, calling it a value added tax by using the nomenclature „VAT“, courts are meant to look into the substance, not what it is called. Don’t envy the judges in this case because they are not meant to intervene with matters of taxation. But this isn’t taxation, it’s social engineering posturing and vote buying/tricking parts of your own party and playing to their delusions. Can’t wait to read the substance of the judgment.

That made me actually 😂

No sign of any change around here . Rural East Sussex /West Kent borders . So I asked ChatGPT . This is what it replied citing ‘The Times’ The Guardian, School Week , The education hub, the Financial Times and Rathbones insolvency practitioners.

As of May 2025, there is no clear evidence of a significant increase in private school closures in the UK directly attributable to the introduction of a 20% VAT on school fees in January 2025. Historically, an average of about 75–85 private schools have closed annually over the past two decades, often due to factors like financial instability, declining enrolment, or regulatory issues. Recent data indicates that this trend has not markedly changed since the VAT policy was implemented.

While some schools have cited the new VAT as a contributing factor to their financial difficulties, it is typically not the sole reason for closures. For instance, several institutions that have closed since the policy’s announcement were already experiencing challenges such as low enrolment, poor inspection outcomes, or longstanding financial issues.

The VAT has led to increased fees—day school fees have risen by approximately 22% year-on-year—which has affected enrolment, particularly at the primary level. The Independent Schools Council reported a 3.5% decline in primary student numbers and a 1.7% drop in secondary enrolment from January 2024 to January 2025. However, these declines are influenced by multiple factors, including broader demographic trends like declining birth rates.

While the VAT on private school fees has added financial pressure to the independent education sector, it has not, to date, resulted in a significant uptick in school closures compared to historical patterns. The full impact of the policy may become more apparent in the coming years as schools and families adjust to the changes.

Im sorry it’s not what you want to hear but it’s just not ‘a thing’ .

It’s not actually my theory but I thought I’d provide it as it doesn’t involve spite or envy. But hey ho, do keep going with your snappy little epithets - love em! Might get me a t-shirt printed up.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants have said similar for simplifying VAT and raising revenue.

The government even set up an Office of Tax Simplification in 2010. Who knew.

What’s not a thing?

This is incorrect on so many levels I don't even know where to start.

VAT + NI + NMW + Business rates combined together has resulted in 70 schools closing so far. That's almost 2 x as many as in average year.
To deny the impact is gaslighting which Phillipson + Labour are good at doing.

The "average" rate of closure (if you exclude SEN specialist schools) is around 44 per year.

I could go on and challenge each and every point with actual evidence but I've done that to death in all the other threads

The fact a government can use education + schools as a source of income says everything you need to know about Labour.