Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 5

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a continuation thread in anticipation of the fourth one filling up…

www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-4?page=39

I’m interested in which sector was hit with large (presumably targeted) tax rises, and was a policy which directly affected children.

Me too

I didn’t say there was an economic value. I was asked if I was OK with schools closing. My comment was that the sector will consolidate, as sectors do when hit by difficult market conditions. As did the private school sector in the wake of the 2008 economic downturn.

We tend not to want to emulate a contraction like 2008 for good reason.

I don’t think there has been a 20% tax that fits the description. Until now anyway

..so yes you’re ok with schools closing? Is there a particular number of schools closing at which you wouldn’t be ok. The treasury advised Labour that the policies would close 100 schools over 2 years, would you be okay with say 200? 300? 101?1000?

I think the difference is that the 2008 consolidation was as a result of organic fallout from a changed economic environment and not a targeted and interventionist mechanism. That is quite a fundamental difference. I guess the crux of it all is - what is the point of the pain the interventionist mechanism brings if there is no gain other than ideological enforcement?

This is a danger zone when one gets into the quantification. You can't quantify it and isolate it and won't be able to see the actual numbers until looking back after a long period of time. Even looking at it in hard-nosed financial terms, ONE school closure is too many unless there is a £ value return from that closure and it seems that there is none.

The UK has been in a changed environment since Covid and the war in Ukraine. A number of schools have been struggling due to a long period where fee rises outstripped wage growth, the COL crisis, and declining numbers enrolling due to Covid and the declining birth rate.

I agree and that's part of the reason why measurement is so difficult. One reason is the time period required to see the real picture and the other is contamination by other factors. The policy will be history and reversed before (if ever) empirical evidence of what was directly VAT is there. So it is better to flip it on its head and acknowledge that not one single school closure is valid unless there is a direct £ value to it and I would go further to say that there would have to be evidence that this £ value had gone to directly improving education provision as a whole (not pissed against the wall by incompetent politicians).

I should have caveated that by saying that even with the £ value demonstration, the morality of taking from a sector to give to another is questionable but I was just concentrating on how one might be able to justify it in purely financial terms.

I live very near to this school. It is our closest secondary. My kids don’t go there - they are in the private sector.

The reason they are pushing out this advertising is that they are under subscribed. Not a problem the local private schools have.

The school has an awful reputation locally for pastoral problems. If you look up the names on recent mumsnet threads you will find comments along those lines from other posters. They got RI on an ofsted in the past few years (now regraded) for both pastoral and teaching issues. The nature of the admissions arrangements means a significant proportion of the kids have challenging home circumstances.

Most parents prefer the other secondary that is just outside the parkland. It is a huge school on an extremely cramped site but admissions are on a religious basis and pastoral care is much better. The selection by willingness to go to church for 4 years leads to a more involved parent group.

The stables are very nice, but represent a tiny part of the experience for some students. They are open to anyone - one of my children has ridden that horse!

It is ultimately a state school with lots of the challenges that brings though. And you pay for it.

I strongly disagree with the VAT but using an example such as this doesn’t build a case. It is very niche and there is lots of background to that situation that you can’t see from the advert or website.

I think the posts below from @SabrinaThwaiteshow the poorness of the policy. It leads to the conclusion damaging contractions were a good thing. Which is clearly upside down world.

No one bar Labour and their supporters maybe, wants to see contraction and job losses.

I'm not using it to build a case. I'm using it to point to hypocrisy of the policy

What this example does show is how ridiculous the policy is. Parents paying £22k at this school do not have a further VAT liability, whereas other parents paying the same amount at different schools are faced with a VAT bill of over £4k. What’s even more ridiculous is treating a school like this more favourably than other schools for tax purposes, when it sounds like it’s failing its pupils and is costing the taxpayer £8k per child per year.

It sounds as though Labour would be better off turning it into an SEN school like this https://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/65-000-per-year-school-with-more-horses-than-pupils-given-m-322083/

I’m just not discounting the benefits of consolidation.

@twistyizzy

You contrasted this with your experience in Catterick and North Yorkshire(another place I have spent a lot of time) and assumed this schooling experience at RAA is much better.

You’ve made an assumption that the children in a school like this are all children of southern bankers, lawyers out of London etc in contrast to farmers and military in the north. And therefore the kids are all more privileged than those in your kids school. The school actually has large proportions of military kids just like your school. And lots of kids from the care system (who I assume are not in your local private school).

I would much rather send my kids to a well staffed, supportive private school in the North East. National pay scales make staffing hard in state schools in Surrey. They are advertising the London location as it is near airports. A pool, some stables and some sports pitches don’t mean anything if your child is being bullied, their SEN needs aren’t met or they don’t have a maths teacher (or head!)

Education shouldn’t be taxed. We shouldn’t be pitching schools against each other either.

Do not tell me what I assume, read any of my posts over last 5 threads!

I think it is only those posters who agree with VAT on education who think less choice in schooling is a good thing. Taking out schools that work well enough for parents to want to pay for them is just collateral damage for their odd idea of the greater good. It apparently magically makes under-performing schools better maybe because they have less competition but we are yet to be told how the VAT is directly helping with the state education in any other meaningful way by these posters.

Do you think WinCol and Pilgrims were struggling due to CoL or Covid?

Both schools will be getting benefits from merging, otherwise why do it?

Last June, 1 in 5 independent schools were already undergoing mergers or acquisitions.

Can you see the problems with forcing contraction?

It’s not like politicians say we’ll try hard to contract the economy and voters say yeh sounds good, we want job losses.

Are we back to it won’t close any schools now? Jolly good.

As PP pointed out, Winchester and Pilgrims are merging, presumably because it brings benefits to both rather than either school is under threat. It’s almost like consolidation can be advantageous.

But you do know, @SabrinaThwaite that contraction and eventual consolidation would be messy and harmful to a generation or two of DCs education.

The imposition of VAT may cause less established and financially stable schools to close but contraction and consolidation in markets work both ways. Private schools due to
falling numbers would become the domain of only the wealthy, creating even more pronounced inequality.

The phasing out of grammar schools would again overburden a cash strapped system and reduce the possibility for high performance in education.

State education would struggle more than it does presently due to sheer numbers.

Yes state education would come out top in the end because the education sector is ‘bloated’ and education is a strong sector (I allude to
your suggestions), and because of the egalitarian removal of choice.

@SabrinaThwaite I am not telling you anything you don’t already know!