Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 4

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuing the discussion about the impact of VAT on independent schools…

Excellently put!

<sigh>

It is what Labour did, they ambushed these parents and kids. Knowing full well they are trapped to raise a few millions, temporarily. Regardless of the cost to those kids and families.

Absolutely. A tax policy which isn't an exploitative attack continues to sustainably bring in revenues over many years.

Labour sprung a new tax with 2 months notice - unlike the 2 years the vaping industry got - in order to deliberately trap families, because they knew they wouldn't get the revenues if they gave parents enough notice to get their kids into state schools at a less harmful transition point.

They have admitted in court now that they did that deliberately.

That's not a sustainable tax. That's exploitatation. And an attack on people they don't like. With zero care about the harm it would cause to children.

And yes, Unforfuckinggivable. Both the government and those who support it.

Can any single one of the supporters of this policy please say how they disagree with any of this? Any counter arguments at all? I highly highly doubt it..

I still find it utterly unbelievable that Labour gave vaping firms 2 years delay on their new tax, in order to help those firms - which harm children's health - adapt and survive. It's a truly sickening contrast to the 2 months they gave schools. Hence the school closures, which BP has said she doesn't care about. Rather than vaping stopping.

How can anyone defend that.

It is hard not to see it as a sexist tax too - it assumes women will be able to uproot their kids and get new transport sorted for schooling, or give up work and homeschool. Admit it, every time we talk about this we are usually imagining women being the people most concerned here, a lot of single parent families and men who maybe work abroad and aren't as "hands on". It is women who will be worrying most about this and were hijacked with the tax.

Whereas when I think of the vaping industry, BAT and the other big names I think of men, men who don't have kids.

There may be another aspect here that I find worrying. As private schools find themselves under increasing financial pressures, selling out to the large Chinese educational institutions becomes more likely. They purchased five last year, 30 since 2014 - I wonder how many more will succumb in the future.

https://independentschoolmanagement.co.uk/news/chinese-investors-buying-into-uk-private-schools/

And look how well that has gone for our steel industry....

This is not hurty feelings. It's shocking analogies that have no place on here or anywhere for that matter. And for the upteenth time, the majority of people do not support spite against people's children.

It was just craven politics. Easy to use children for gain.

Hopefully those people will find themselves out of politics due to poor policies at next GE.

another closure:

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/25064056.st-josephs-park-hill-school-burnley-announces-closure/

"The school cited the additional VAT on fees as one reason for the students' withdrawing from the provider... In addition, it noted a declining birth rate, the impact of an increase of employers' National Insurance contributions, and the removal of business rates relief for independent schools, as reasons for the closure... The number of pupils will drop by at least a third over this academic year,"

That’s fine, my comments only refer to the minority of bigoted easily led less than average intelligence people who supported the policy but I will extend that to anyone who ever votes Labour again … no excuse now. Honestly, education tax….how low can we sink as a country.

Reverse nominative determinism in action!

You make some poor assumptions here. 1) the government would not have to maintain the current teacher to pupil ratio. It makes sense to optimise classes at 1:30 using up the spare spaces that do exist in the state sector. (However many but not all of the spaces are not where the spaces will be needed)

2. the birth rate continues to fall the extra 54000 children that are estimated to move into the state sector are in different years. As we all know the pupil yo teacher ratios are different at primary, secondary and sixth form/college.

The shift of 50,000 in will not require as many teachers as you estimate.

my guesstimates are
1)the successful and large private schools will be fine.
2)There will be some consolidation in the private sector.
3)the private schools that were already struggling will close
4)more private schools will become coed
5)some parents will move locations to where they can get into better state schools
6)some parents will move locations to where they can still go private but at a lower cost location
7)state boarding schools (there only about 30) may get more demand
8)this tax on private education will not fund anywhere near the teachers labour estimate
9)if Conservatives get back in and reverse tax new private schools would open.

Except that rests wholly on the deluded assumption that the majority are voting with this marginal policy in mind when the reality is that most do not consider their lives to be directly affected by it. Many will be casting their votes without even a thought for vat on school fees. That doesn't makes them bigoted, easily less or of less than average intelligence. It just means other things may be more important to them.

If the teacher:pupil ratio is so unimportant, then why did Labour market this policy as 'improving state education by paying for an extra 6500 teachers' ?

It's another Schrodinger effect. Teacher ratio is important when it's a justification for the policy... but simultaneously unimportant when it's pointed out that a better ratio could have been achieved by not charging VAT and then maintaining the same total education funding whilst allowing demographic change to improve the ratio with the existing teachers.

Because some of the current people teachers are not qualified or are supply teachers. We all know there are not enough maths and science teachers.

The governments own stats put the teacher:student ratio at 1: 18.1
https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england/2023

You may believe you can "optimise" the teacher:student ratio to be 1:30. This would entail laying off close to 40% of teaching staff, or about 200,000 teachers. In this case I would suggest you apply to the DfE or indeed the treasury as they have teams of economists of exactly your calibre, who, based on their track record to date, would be very interested in your ideas.

My economic skills aren’t that bad 😀
you wouldn’t need to lay off teachers as we all know there are other factors such as attrition and retirement. Then there is the other key factor the falling birth rate.

either which way the point of this thread is that private schools will collapse. I don’t see that happening. I think the better ones will survive and as we know that’s basic supply and demand. 😉

There aren't enough maths and science teachers because schools can't recruit them into existing vacancies despite having funding.

How will adding extra students (even if they come with funding) help that?

SOME Private schools will collapse. The smaller, quieter, non big city ones will go. The niche ones will go. We’ve posted about this on these threads again and again. These schools are going to close without an alternative from the state sector being available, because that’s what made parents come to them in the first place. That’s what the high court cases are about.

For example, it’s a travesty for UK girls, that girls’ single schooling has been made so rare in the state sector. There are already whole counties with no state girls schools at all. And many of those surviving state girls’ schools, are selective grammar schools so are not open to all girls.
It’s particularly sexist then that this government is compounding this by threatening the survival of private school girls’ schools as well (which are also not open to all girls, except if their family is eligible for bursary, but which will rarely be 100% of the fees.)

The option of choosing single sex schools if parents or kids want them, is really important. My close elderly relative was a girls’ school teacher of maths and she drummed it in to me that girls will do better in a single sex school. And especially, if those girls are studying the school subjects that other people can be sexist about seeing girls studying.

Sadly, the world hasn’t changed that much since her day. In a single sex school environment, girls are freer to be any kind of girl they want. Some girls will really need that single sex space. It’s appalling that the government doesn’t place any value on the school ecosystem that they are permanently destroying at the moment

I also disagree that unless it’s in very wealthy areas where school fee income is guaranteed, (or in an area where there is guaranteed income from a local authority for fees eg SEND specialist school), then not many new private schools will open, even if the VAT policy is removed.

The SEND specialist schools will also not be able to guarantee an income in future if the government drive is to change the law with the effect that more SEND pupils must be in mainstream state schools.

Costs of land, materials, labour, building from scratch or repurposing an existing building to make it a school- the start up costs are going to be prohibitive in most cases.

Look at the casualty rate in very small alternative schools like Steiner schools already - for whom VAT is just as applicable:

.https://www.schoolmanagementplus.com/bursars-finance/steiner-school-closes-due-to-cashflow-challenges/

I think most people agree that in a modern society we need a variety and choice of educational approaches and settings to suit different children and families. And that’s exactly what’s being removed.

The Independent Association of Prep Schools has said previously that schools with under 200 pupils should be exempt from the planned VAT charge.
I don’t think this is a good approach- the government should just scrap the whole VAT imposition on principle.

Yes they should just scrap it. Now if they had the honesty. Or it will happen when next gov comes in. A shame for schools and dc to see the damage from it until then.

Jeez steady on FairMindedMaiden, I'm a Labour member & I assure you there are many of us trying to influence policy & remove this VAT policy from private education - remember it polled well with Tory voters (not members) too
And before we go attributing "bigoted, easily led" tropes let us not forget that Boris Johnson's brexit deal cost this country an estimated £400billion ,& £40billion pa - a self imposed tariff on ourselves that would make Donald Trump blush & equally trashed our reputation amongst world leaders.
....and don't get me started on the Conservatives 11 failed plans for growth, writing off 12billion "lost" during Covid, the highest tax burden in 70 years, 11 education ministers, a refugee Rwanda policy that was truly inhumane, Liz Truss' Kamikwase budget costing £60billion to bailout UK LDI pension funds....and whilst many Tories lapped up the stupid slogans to "build back better" or "send them back" or "hands, face, arse" many people in this country should never be fooled again that Far Right Nationalist Conservatism should ever be anywhere near power again.

Some private schools will close. The majority will survive. A key question is how many. The treasury officials advising the government estimated around 100 additional closures due to VAT over 3 years. The ISC has stated this is a significant underestimate as the Independent Schools Bursars Association forecast that 286 private schools (11% of the total) could close.
A forecast of 200 +/- 100 closures would include both those estimates in the error bar.

Contrast this with Keir Starmer's statement in June 2024 that there was "no evidence" any schools would have to close (which wilfully ignored the reports by Baines-Cutler and the Adam Smith institute, both published by then, both of which evidenced the likelihood of school closures), and Bridget Philipson's insistence in August 2024 (after ministers had been advised by their own officials on forecasted additional closures due to VAT) that any school closures were not a result of the VAT policy.
(see:
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-says-there-is-no-evidence-private-schools-will-have-to-close-due-to-labours-plans-13160025
and
https://www.punchline-gloucester.com/skillsjobsapprenticeships/education-secretary-bridget-phillipson-vat-policy-not-to-blame-for-school-closures-
.)

The government continues to insist that "very, very few" students will have to change schools. But 54,000 is not "very, very few". It's equivalent to the total number of schoolchildren in a major city the size of Cardiff or Leicester.