No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

If this cohort have no faith “in the system”, it has long term consequences. I know many of that age group who don’t even want to go to uni as they think the debt is another way those in charge are taking advantage of them. Many want degree apprenticeships. I don’t think anyone even considered that private schools tend to ensure most of their pupils go the uni path and the implications on unis of putting an entire cohort off private school!

It’s worth remembering that demographic trends also mean that numbers applying to 16+ education continue to rise year on year:

(Graph from 2021; there may be an updated one)

This means that despite falling numbers overall reaching an age to apply for Reception and Y7 spaces, 6th forms continue to expect rising applications for years as the ‘bulge’ years roll through.

It makes it more complicated to dissect out VAT-related 16+ trends: changes in demographics and also in university entrance selection criteria are also driving increased applications and a private to state migration.

Sorry, graph did not appear

This means that despite falling numbers overall reaching an age to apply for Reception and Y7 spaces, 6th forms continue to expect rising applications for years as the ‘bulge’ years roll through.

Well, isn't it brilliant for these bulge years that the government decided to add this extra seasoning of pressure and uncertainty

Is there evidence that there is not capacity, overall, for this year’s cohort of 16 year olds? I know locally the sixth form college, where the vast majority go, has been expanding capacity steadily to stay ahead of the curve, despite ‘unprecedented’ applicant numbers every single year.

And given that every applicant can hold onto several state sixth forms offers right up
until GCSE results are out - and sometimes beyond - it is hard at this stage to know how applications will map onto final destinations, to an even greater extent than at 11+.

I suspect there will be capacity overall. Just perhaps not on the courses or at the school/colleges you wanted.

The government apparently guarantee a place for all 16-18s on a "suitable" course.

If you want to go to uni to study a particular competitive course, you typically need to take the right A levels and get the right kind of grades. If it’s overcrowded or you are not allocated the right subjects for that course, that means uni compromise for many. Which some just won’t go for, given the debt.

‘Overcrowding’ is difficult to analyse, though. The data that I can find Government report , though relatively elderly, actually shows a weak positive correlation between increasing class sizes at A level and increased progress. The communal areas - canteens, common rooms, circulation areas - are likely to be those most affected by an increase in overall student numbers, and while overcrowding of such parts of sixth forms may affect the ‘student experience’, it is less likely to impact on results.

Progression to most highly-selective university courses is also, perhaps, not where the pinch point is likely to be. Those aspiring to join such courses are likely to have GCSE grades that make them preferred candidates for subjects of their choice. Where students may get squeezed out, or into other courses, are at lower grade points, where a GCSE level which might once have been marginally sufficient to gain a place in a class may no
longer do so. Which I agree is a potential issue, but us not the one that you have identified.

It is of course possible that students transferring from private schools may be disproportionately and differently affected by larger A level classes, being used to more individual attention in smaller classes than their state school peers. That isn’t revealed in the data.

@cantkeepawayforever - pupils coming from the private sector - their parents will have cash for tutors. It is those currently in the state sector not getting their preferred choices that are my concern.

But you are assuming that private sector kids will have the better grades and whilst you honestly believe you know better than others….i know that my DC old state school (has an outstanding 6th form) guarantees its pupils coming up from yr 11 a place as long as they get the minimum grades required to do a subject (that was true even before VAT gate) - this idea that PE children will be preferred is a nonsense. You talk in previous messages about specialist subjects / course for specialist degrees - what are these subjects / courses you refer to? You are also talk about the finances of all these private school pupils like they have an edge over state parents….i can assure you that state parents have resources and do care about their kids education. On the one hand you are trying to sound like a woman of the people and then on other threads you sound entitled - which are you?

And before you ask I am working class, state educated all the way through to my state funded Russell group uni, worked my arse off and offering my dc the opportunity of a private 13+ education on their request! I love their state schools and their wonderful teachers who work so hard and no they were not disadvantaged being in a class of 30 - they have passed the 13+ selective tests with no coaching and no they are not uber bright either - they got a great education from their state teachers with 29 other kids in their classes! The diversity in our state schools is amazing, the children are amazing from the child that is deaf to the child, the children that is on the Asperger’s to the child who is just amazing at everything they attempt to do - I can honestly can my dc has only benefitted from knowing that they are all different and bring something to each others worlds - it is not the chaos you assume! Yes there are days where there is disruptions because a child has had a melt down but there is care for that child not automatic punishment.

So please stop preaching - you really do believe you are the smartest person in the room (or should I say mumsnet) the woes of this country / government, the brain drain of our country, how awful it is that privately educated children will squeezing the poor state kids out of their schools - this won’t happen - their is a little thing called catchments etc. in other posts you state that “if things don’t work for you in good old Blighty you will go to Europe….good luck with that! Do you have any idea how privileged you are to live here, to be safe and to have choice in life is a luxury.

I only joined Mumsnet to gain insight into the Private Schools and I am stunned by the sheer numbers of people on here that just moan about how unfair everything is.

I choose compassion, hope and love for all not woe. I will no longer be part of this toxic community if Mumsnet!

This is a bit much re the pp.

What do you think of Labour’s policies wiping out funding so now they’re going for welfare cuts?

Dreadful personal attack on the previous poster. From someone who says that they choose compassion, hope and love.

Yes, many state schools do prioritise their pupils for sixth form as long as they get the grades. My DC’s super selective state grammar does. However, they also take on another 40-50 pupils in year 12. Those places go the applicants with the highest GCSE results. It’s not much of a suprise that the local selective private school gets the highest GCSE results after the state grammar. So, yes, the private school pupils do push some kids out who apply from non-selective state schools.

So how do you feel about Labour cutting 1.4B from education budger in order to fund public sector payrises, or their white washing of SEN by forcing more kids into mainstream (without additional funding) under guise of "inclusion"?

OK @Fingersandtoedcrossedxxx . Glad you benefitted from the forum - and the collective knowledge on here - whilst you were here.

If you do decide to stay, note that it's a discussion forum.

Saying 'twaddle' isn't discussion.

Neither is ranting at a poster. Personal attacks are against guidelines. They're also rude.

This whole debate is a storm in a porcelain teacup. The numbers are tiny compared to the bigger picture. Let's not forget that only 5% of children attend private schools. Private school parents may be unhappy about the choices they have to face, but there are many more state school parents ruminating over whether they send their child to their 3rd/4th choice school or fork out for a private school place whilst the child stays on the waiting list for a preferred school than there are private school parents trying to decide whether to pay the augmented fees or settle for a less favoured school.

The point is that if just 10% of that small number of children who are at - or would have gone to - private school instead go to state, the policy starts costing the government (ie all tax payers) more than it makes.

Any financial loss from a government policy obviously inevitably means less funding for state services (eg state schools) and/or higher other taxes.

The phrase 'storm in a porcelain teacup' made me smile though. Very poetic.

I hope it is.

To answer your question @Fingersandtoedcrossedxxx - it is Economics, Maths, particularly Further Maths, Computer Science, sometimes Physics type course. The subjects you need to be able to take at Sixth Form to attend some of the most competitive uni courses. There are shortages of teachers (fact) and many Sixth Forms do limit access to those courses to top performers only. Yes, many prioritise their own first provided they get a high enough grade, but external places will be filled by those with highest grades and strings of 9s typically.

And I forgive your ad hominem. Don’t care. It is a discussion forum.

On the plus side, Phillipson is anti smart phone now, it seems. She is starting to listen. MN does matter.

It's 7% up to 6th form then jumps to 18%.
These kids are just collateral damage to Labour and posters like yourself.
Not sure you would be so blasé if it was your own child being impacted.

Yes, many state schools do prioritise their pupils for sixth form as long as they get the grades. My DC’s super selective state grammar does. However, they also take on another 40-50 pupils in year 12. Those places go the applicants with the highest GCSE results. It’s not much of a suprise that the local selective private school gets the highest GCSE results after the state grammar. So, yes, the private school pupils do push some kids out who apply from non-selective state schools.

Interestingly, super-selective grammar I am aware of offers ‘external’ places to high performers, but very much take into account the context they are coming from. So a student from a lower-performing state comprehensive with very good predicted grades for that context will get an offer above a student with higher predictions from a private or selective setting.

They also take into account ‘historic prediction accuracy’ - so will not offer to a student with high predicted grades from a traditionally ‘predict the best possible outcome’ school over one from a ‘pitch predictions accurately’ school.

Yes, they have a minimum actual grade requirement for entry, that is in fact relatively low compared with the predictions required for an offer. I did, however, admire their attempts to take onto account the context in which a student was doing their GCSEs as much as the predicted grades themselves.

My DC’s grammar doesn’t offer A Level places on predicted grades. They make the offers after GCSE results are received. For some subjects, a pupil can’t take the A Level unless they get an 8 or a 9 at GCSE. That includes their own GCSE pupils. The standard is exceptionally high.

I can see that a ‘highest absolute grades get places’ offer approach would indeed discriminate against prospective students from non-selective state schools. I was just saying that’s not the only strategy available- even for one of the most highly-attaining stare schools in the country. Your school could choose a juster policy if they wanted to.

The grammar school that is nearish to me only gives external students places based on average gcse point score across 8 GCSEs after results have come out. You also have to have a 9 to do Further Maths.