No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

(I would clarify - I do not mean children with some SEN needs, placed in an essentially mainstream private that meets their needs through eg smaller classes. I mean children being placed in privately-run Special Schools, for which those dependent on state funding would require an EHCP naming the school)

I can only speak for my son’s specialist independent school (autism specialist). I was aware of a small handful of students who were privately funded by their parents. In all cases, the school assessed the student’s need and whether they felt they were the correct setting for that child. So yes it was absolutely based on need compared with others, but also on their ability to be able to pay if (for whatever reason) their LA wasn’t funding their child’s place.

Bankers and "top lawyers" decamping to Dubai is not a brain drain. It's rich people moving overseas to avoid paying taxes. Plus ça change...

You don’t understand why people priced out of private schools can afford to spend an additional £150k+ on a mortgage? Or £300+ if they are no longer paying for two children?

If a 20% increase in VAT makes education become unaffordable then I don't understand why they all of sudden have hundreds of thousands for great catchments. In my part of London you would need a lot more than 150k to get to the good schools...

And again I'm not sure why they would all be grammar material?

There is much made on these threads of more wealthy parents with DC in state schools and being the truly privileged in the mix as they have the option of great state schools and have saved so much money because of it.If that's really true then the ex-private school DC will be the poor relations surely. You can't have it both ways.

That's the bit that doesn't make sense. So many contradictions!

I know a couple where one is a GP and the other a surgeon, and another couple where they are more IT based - cybersecurity. Why do you think these people get paid a good salary? If our graduates see others having a better lifestyle with opportunities to educate kids to a high standard elsewhere, why would they stay here if their salary and lifestyle improve abroad? You only have to look at the studies in the news today showing girls in mixed state schools don't thrive in STEM, yet girls schools are closing down faster than ever before. If you are happy with less choice and opportunity for future generations that is your stance, however plenty would rather move to get it.

I am aware the history of schools having links to other countries has been around for a while but I have heard of 2 well respected private schools that have informed parents they will be starting up schools overseas with very close links in the last couple of months.

As a parent with a child with an EHCP, I can confirm that in most cases this doesn't bring you a place in a state school.of your choice, let alone a funded place in a private school.

Plus, finding a private school who will take them is virtually impossible.

Happily the state school they ended up I was fantastic, because they have enough pupils with similar needs to have the expertise to provide the support she needed.

So you have a financial decision to make...

Do you spend £300k on private school fees (possibly more depending on if only secondary and number of kids) or do you put more into buying in catchment of desirable school and have an appreciating asset at the end of it rather than the sunk costs of school fees?

And not all of the kids will be grammar types, but if you are after highly selective private secondaries and decide to switch sector then by definition they will be.

In terms of tutoring, I have friends who spent over £16k a year on tutors in Y10 and Y11, and are now doing the same for A level years.

Why do you think these people get paid a good salary?

They don't really hence why people want to leave. Uk wages are pretty crap

You are indeed ignorant. Independent special schools decide who to admit based on need, not who is paying. It doesn’t matter to them who is paying. Given the very high costs involved, parents would not choose to send a child to a school where they would both be paying an unnecessary high cost but also would not have appropriate peers for their child.

As for accessing a EHCP - local authorities have collectively spent hundreds of millions of pounds defending tribunal cases - of which they lost over 98% last year. Parents aren’t ‘easing access’ by private assessments; then often have to spend tens of thousands on reports and legal fees. If you don’t have the money then you can get legal aid to pay for this (including for private assessments as evidence). But it can take years to do this as particularly obstinate local authorities will challenge you at every stage. If you don’t have access to legal aid you might decide to sell your house to pay special school fees straight away rather than pay court costs for years.

Do you spend £300k on private school fees (possibly more depending on if only secondary and number of kids) or do you put more into buying in catchment of desirable school and have an appreciating asset at the end of it rather than the sunk costs of school fees?

This is not a new choice though? Fees have increased by a huge percentage over the last 2 decades and yet many have chosen the sunk cost. Of course this ignores the fact that many who pay fees also live in expensive houses...

Not everyone lives in London. In many areas, £150k would easily enable you to get a house in a decent catchment. In addition, a family with 2 children in private school could easily save £40-£50k per year by switching to state. A saving of that amount every year would pay the mortgage on much more than £150k borrowing.

And not all of the kids will be grammar types, but if you are after highly selective private secondaries and decide to switch sector then by definition they will be.

Not necessarily, I already said upthread I know 2 dc who had a few bursary/scholarships offers to good London privates but didn't pass Tiffin & the Sutton grammars.

In terms of tutoring, I have friends who spent over £16k a year on tutors in Y10 and Y11, and are now doing the same for A level years.

So people are already tutoring then? I had a tutor when I was in school, it's not a new thing.

£150k for a whole house in a decent school catchment? I'd love to hear of this magical place? How are you defining decent? Most people would class top 100 schools nationally as worth moving for or paying for.

My comment was in relation to a poster referring to moving house (ie moving from an existing house) . £150k extra on top of their existing house would enable a move into a great catchment in many areas. In addition, the savings on private school fees by switching to state would enable a lot more borrowing than £150k extra.

Thank you for the clarification. I am not ignorant of the difficulty in accessing special school education - private or state run - via an EHCP starting from the state sector, having fought fiercely alongside parents for several such, very much needed, transfers over the years. I genuinely did not know, however, that private special schools exist where any parents could bypass this process through payment of fees. Do they exist for all SEND?

Not everyone lives in London. In many areas, £150k would easily enable you to get a house in a decent catchment. In addition, a family with 2 children in private school could easily save £40-£50k per year by switching to state. A saving of that amount every year would pay the mortgage on much more than £150k borrowing.

This option was available before the VAT increase though & yet some still chose 50k for fees. I completely understand the arguments around SEN dc & provision but I just don't believe thousands will pull their dc out of privates & all these dc will suddenly have access to the best states & push everywhere out. The best states are often full of very sharp elbowed and well resourced parents too.

Who said whole house? That the EXTRA mortgage you could easily afford if you are no longer paying fees for a single child.

It’s not just the VAT increase though. The cost of living and high inflation pushing fees up over the last few years means that more families will be thinking about whether the fees are worth it. The VAT is just the tipping point for many.

It’s not just the VAT increase though. The cost of living and high inflation pushing fees up over the last few years means that more families will be thinking about whether the fees are worth it. The VAT is just the tipping point for many.

I already said that wage stagnation, COL, increased mortgage costs is putting more pressure on finances. I just don't necessarily think the tipping point is VAT as opposed to the general annual increases. People will have been priced out even if VAT didn't happen.

Not sure what the point is here? Obviously if you put the prices up 20% on everything there would be some people who would chose not to spend on certain things any more. Private school parents have already chosen education as a priority, and the fact their kids lives are being upended just before exams if they have to leave is more important to them than debt.

Not sure what the point is here?

That people were already priced out before VAT increases.

An overnight hike of 20% is the tipping point for many families. Many will have absorbed previous increases but an extra 20%, for some, is now not affordable or justifiable. It really is very basic economics. Price affects demand.

Private school parents have already chosen education as a priority,

And I believe many will still do so.

An overnight hike of 20% is the tipping point for many families

Not every school has increased fees by 20% overnight though?

Price affects demand.

We shall see