No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

Lots of engineers and scientists in my DCs PS, admittedly from private sector. A lot emigrated unfortunately

In other words, despite the dramatic headlines from private school parents, there is little impact on state school places after the VAT decision.

Shocker.

@baital - you are missing the point. There appears to be an army of very annoyed private school parents. To deny there is zero impact from that long term, is at most, very naive.

Of course they are annoyed. They were able to buy privileges for their children. Now, like the 93% of other parents, they can't.

I don't see why that should be a consideration for the 93% who were never able to buy that privilege?

There are enough state school places, despite the dire warnings and threats.

Would you like someone to explain to you how this forum works?

You can still buy privileges for your children, it is called tutoring, and going on, en masse. It is one massive growth industry and only the platforms can be supervised properly for taxes.
So pushing lots of higher earners into state schools long term when many are married to higher earners as well, is not tax efficient. It will cost the taxpayer and many of those people will work part time.
So from a cost perspective it does not make sense. From an equality perspective given tutoring I cannot really see it either.

It seems that private schools will have ever increasing numbers of foreign students, whose parents can afford the fees.

🤦🏼‍♀️

Feel free to RTFT.

The upshot is: at this stage no-one has any real idea of the impact. Anyone claiming otherwise fundamentally misunderstands the position despite it having been explained numerous times on this any many other threads.

It's still more cost to the taxpayer when those state places are taken. And if not much is brought in funding wise what's the point?

Labour are struggling with funding as it is hence the welfare cuts.

It's a massive consideration for the 93%

What happens to the children who are totally dependent on the teaching provided by school when half the class have private tutors and teachers assume that those not getting good marks are just thick or lazy?

What happens when you can no longer get a place in a grammar or a top comp because you can't afford to tutor or buy a house on the doorstep?

What happens when your child doesn't have a high enough set of scores to get into the 6th form college for A levels and the providers left don't offer the subjects you want to take?

What happens when your SEN child can no longer access support because there are too many SEN kids for the department to cope?

All this is already happening. But moving more children into state (and those children having access, in the main, to resources and articulate, interested parents who will use what tools they have at their disposal) will just bump a lot of other people down.

So yep, state parents have just as much to be interested in as private school parents.

People taking their kids off the state books frees up resources for those who rely on them 100%.

Sorry, coming back again for a clarification:

”Over 22% of privately educated kids either have an EHCP or SEN Support.”

If a child has an EHCP naming the school - eg is placed in a private Special School named in their EHCP - isn’t that a case where the state pays the fees anyway? And I seem to remember that one exception in the VAT rules was that state-funded places in private Special Schools (via EHCPs) did not have VAT applied? Or have I misremembered?

SEN support is a bit difficult because it’s not a fixed level of need - rather a level of need relative to the cohort, so they need something different and extra from the norm. I have taught classes in 1 school where almost children all would have been classified as having SEN if they had attended another school that I have taught in, simply because in a school with a very challenging cohort serving a very deprived area, the ‘norm’ is set at a different level.

Similarly, I have taught children transferring from private to state whose previous ‘SEN support’ was no longer required, because their academic, social and emotional needs fitted well and were met well within the class norm. Equally, in a different context I have had children transferring to state apparently ‘doing well’ within a private school going straight onto the state school SEN register at the highest level. Ditto children transferring between different state schools (including my own DS, on the SEN register at his first school for selective mutism and potential ASD but rightly assessed as needing no provision over and above in his next setting) don’t always keep their precise documented SEN status. It’s not a standardised measure.

What happens to the children who are totally dependent on the teaching provided by school when half the class have private tutors and teachers assume that those not getting good marks are just thick or lazy?

What happens when you can no longer get a place in a grammar or a top comp because you can't afford to tutor or buy a house on the doorstep?

I get confused by these arguments because how is it any different to now? Plus the assumption that all the dc priced out will be dc who are grammar material &/or can afford expensive catchments?

But moving more children into state (and those children having access, in the main, to resources and articulate, interested parents who will use what tools they have at their disposal) will just bump a lot of other people down.

These parents are already all over the best state schools...

If a child has an EHCP naming the school - eg is placed in a private Special School named in their EHCP - isn’t that a case where the state pays the fees anyway? And I seem to remember that one exception in the VAT rules was that state-funded places in private Special Schools (via EHCPs) did not have VAT applied? Or have I misremembered?

VAT is chargeable by special schools and on those with EHCPs, councils can then offset the VAT it pays on these against VAT charged. EHCPs could not be used to exempt from VAT, despite what Labour were initially saying, as they don’t exist across the whole of the UK. That was one of the things that was so frustrating to private school parents - arguments they used to back up this policy showed they had not properly considered the impact.

Pupils with SEN who have been placed in independent special schools by parents are charged VAT.

For the vast majority, not all, SENs, it was about not wanting to pay more tax.

The threat to go state, was always empty.

The whole idea that state schools would benefit from VAT on education is nonsense anyway for the devolved regions where devolved assemblies decide expenditure.

Because the likelihood is that it will now be larger numbers than it currently is.

And if you are that state parent who can't afford tutors for 11+, can't afford a house that guarantees you the place in the top comp, and can't afford to pay to ensure your child keeps up with the class, then that is YOUR child who is affected.

People think it's socking it to the rich and will be an advantage for those in state provision. But at an individual level it may well not be great at all.

I know of 3 kids just from one Mumsnet thread with private school scholarship offers who are turning them down now they have an offer from DD's comp. There are at least 4 new threads in the last 2 weeks about waiting list places and likelihood of getting a place for that same school.

Socking it to the rich isn't working out for Labour anyway.

Their anti growth policies mean they're now onto welfare cuts.

On this policy there's a reason other countries do the opposite with rebates.

And if you are that state parent who can't afford tutors for 11+, can't afford a house that guarantees you the place in the top comp, and can't afford to pay to ensure your child keeps up with the class, then that is YOUR child who is affected.

These parents already exist & the bulge years are coming to an end so catchments should increase.

I still don't understand why the dc who will be priced out of private schools will be only grammar material & who can afford high house prices?

Exactly. There is much made on these threads of more wealthy parents with DC in state schools and being the truly privileged in the mix as they have the option of great state schools and have saved so much money because of it.If that's really true then the ex-private school DC will be the poor relations surely. You can't have it both ways.

Does it really matter if there are people who can easily afford it. It's the impact on the edge of affordability, disruption to those dc and generally if any funding comes in at all.

Are you for this policy @ThonBanane?

“On this policy there's a reason other countries do the opposite with rebates.“

I have heard from friends who teach in Dubai that Dubai educational groups are targeting SEND support specifically for British expats priced out of the UK. They want our top tax payers and skilled people. This Government is asleep at the wheel.

I still don't understand why the dc who will be priced out of private schools will be only grammar material & who can afford high house prices?

You don’t understand why people priced out of private schools can afford to spend an additional £150k+ on a mortgage? Or £300+ if they are no longer paying for two children?

These UK schools are lending their names to private schools in other countries and collecting substantial franchise fees, often to the tune of £500-£1000 per student at the overseas schools. The students there are mostly from the local elites. The UK schools do share their teaching materials and usually send senior teachers to do presentations and training, but the main benefit the local schools get is the prestige and the opportunity to charge more because of it, presumably a higher increment than the franchise fee. Usually, the UK schools also hold out the promise of "looking favourably" on students at the local school whose families move to the UK, but that seems like a pretty rare occurrence.

Pupils with SEN who have been placed in independent special schools by parents are charged VAT.

This is genuinely my ignorance - so in some private special schools, parents can buy places for their children, based not on need compared with others but on ability to pay? Whereas for those reliant on state funding, high need must be meticulously (and often repeatedly) documented in order to qualify for an EHCP naming the special school?

Does this apply for all private special schools and all SEND? Profound and Multiple, affecting both physical and mental capacity? SEMH? EBD? Sensory impairment? Particular conditions like Muscular Dystrophy? Dyslexia? ASD / ADHD?

I knew already that access to special school provision could sometimes be eased somewhat by financial and other means of parents - private assessments, just knowing how the system works etc. I did not know that Special School places could be paid for directly.