What is your argument based on with closing private schools and where those kids willl go to next?
What makes you assume all or even the majority, of parents will be able to afford to put their DC into another private school if their school has to close? Or will want to?
We already know that all the small (non-big-name) private schools are having to whack up their fees to survive all the new costs suddenly imposed on them by the government + pass on the VAT.
If a local private school closes down the neighbouring private schools will already be massively raising their fees to avoid the same fate. Cutting their bursaries. Not offering the same scholarships etc.
Many parents are not going to be able to buy back into the private system in their area at the same price point that they had before (at the school that closed). So those parents will all be applying in-year to the local authority admissions process at the same time. As we’ve discussed in year transfers don’t attract additional funding.
That’s even if there is an equivalent private school to the same area to the one that had closed. Only in a very few wealthy urban areas, will there be a choice of similar schools and similar basically standard unit cost per school place between them.
Outside those types of areas, fee paying schools are likely to vary massively in a given local area, because the areas wont support a clientele for duplication of what each private school offers.. They might have a Steiner school, plus a small local single-sex school, plus a sports focused co-ed, plus a big name academic focused boarding school, plus a religious boarding school. Or whatever combination it is.
There isn’t a standard ‘private school pupil’ that will just be able to slot in at the next available local private school pupil place, in a lot of the less wealthy areas of the country. So that will put massive pressure on local state school places in those less wealthy areas that the private schools have closed in. Its totally irrelevant to those areas that in zone 1&2 in central London, some school rolls have been falling.