I am only aware of one child leaving my kids prep in their 2 year groups. That is a complicated situation - vat is a only a small part of the reason for the decision. Lots joined in September in year 3.
VAT prompted the school to merge into a group with other preps and a local senior. Children now get a place at the Senior School with no entrance exams. We didn’t like the original feeder prep for lots of reasons, but it was also 20 per cent more expensive than our school anyway. But the senior school is fantastic and where we wanted our child to go there. So that is all great news for us personally.
Both DH and I were state school educated. SIL is a state school maths teacher. My kids started in state. I would not send them back until sixth form at the earliest. If their school closed (seems unlikely) we would move to home/online schooling and I would stop work. Or we would take jobs elsewhere.
By year 6, 75 per cent of the kids in the have come out of the state system at some point. None of those parents want to send their kids back.
Financially VAT isn’t an issue for us. I can only work due to the wrap around care their school provides. It isn’t available in the state system. As long as my salary is higher than the fees it works out. I am no where near that bar.
We are not one of the marginal cases but they do exist, but less so in the type of school my children attend. Disproportionally they are kids with SEN, faith or social needs.
There will be behavioural change at the margins - less two parent working families, more people deciding to have one child (given the childcare situation), more families using state or for longer etc. But I can’t see this policy having any meaningful impact on how our society functions which would impact us. Either by improving state schools, changing cultures or reducing inequality. I think the biggest impact is that by prioritising this, Labour have wasted time when they could have been making real improvements to our country.
I disagree with the principle of taxing education, healthcare and childcare but appreciate that others feel differently.
Overall it is a bit of a shrug - I am far more worried about Labour’s messaging to the economy and businesses, rising gilt rates and inflationary taxes