Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 2

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a second thread as the first one is still very busy, albeit it's veered off in a few directions...

Original article

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

Perhaps a bit of levity went over your head, there?

That aside, there is no way anyone with half a brain, let alone training in Comm, should post a song in a MFL to which they have not checked the lyrics in translation first.

Idiocy.

I'm pointing out the govt won't let anyone with a private education work with them while agreeing with pp that the person who picked it clearly didn't get extra tuition (if any) in languages compared to seemingly everyone on tiktok. It wasn't personal.

@NiftyTraybake's level of education

TribeofFfive's level of education

Really shows, doesn't it?

Oh dear, you thought I was being serious. Christ.

Of course. A miserly existence, I know.

I’m glad you understood the tone of my post. A PP mistakenly assumed I was insulting you which I certainly wasn’t.

National offer day for state primary and secondary are 16 April and 3 March. Easter is 20th April. Most privates require a clear terms notice.
Bursars and heads can expect dozens of withdrawals or parents of prospective pupils declining their offered places around Easter. It will become clear to many schools then that they won't have the numbers to be viable from September 2025. They'll have to let the parents know that the school will be closing by July.
So I think it's quite likely that the end of April will see scores of schools announcing their closure, at which point the increasingly desperate denials of Labour that it's not due to their dreadful policy will fool nobody. That'll be scant consolation for the kids who'll have to move, though.

@Lebr - if a ton of schools do go bust, then parents will simply become too worried to use private education in the first place, especially at primary level, which then translates to more and more using state schools. And hanging onto state school offers until September, at least.
Personally I would not be signing up to stand alone preps without the backing of private secondaries with deep pockets in this climate.

My original point there was that the wife and I are both well-paid, that is, that the only people who are can shrug off a 20% increase are the hedge-fund managers and the generationally-wealthy.

For us it's made it unaffordable, no matter how much avocado toast we don't eat. It's the people with SEND kids I feel most sorry for, a forced move is disruptive and inconvenient for us, but terrible for them.

The stupidity and bitterness of the Labour Party is only highlighted every week.

Why didn’t they take heed of the Greece example? Did they think they knew better? Or are they using children as sacrificial lambs for their flawed ideology? Both perhaps.

‘The ASI also notes that, in 2015, Greece applied a 23 per cent VAT charge on independent school fees, which led to schools closing, teachers being made redundant, and an overwhelmed state sector.’

https://www.schoolmanagementplus.com/heads-governors-school-leadership-governance/what-the-greeks-can-teach-us-about-vat-on-fees/

I agree. It’s the exact situation a neighbour of mine finds herself in. Her son wouldn’t get a place in a specialist school but can’t cope in mainstream. She is going to have to give up her career and home school.

From 2015

https://www.economist.com/europe/2015/10/30/greece-reconsiders-a-tax-on-private-education

You sound positively gleeful.

Perhaps we should petition MN for an irony klaxon emoji.

I don’t think this is gleeful. However, there have been many awful posts on posh private school children having to suck it up and how great for resilience the mid exam change of schedule is wil be for them (including the SEN children).

at least one positive here is that all three Loughborough Foundation secondary / sixth forms are co-located on one campus in Loughborough. I did wonder if there was a fee differential between the one closing and the other two, but a quick look suggests that is not the case, or at least the figures are very close. Although even a minimal uplift might still break the financial camel’s back for some of these DC, and require them to move away completely.

Equally though three schools on one campus do they all use the same exam boards etc. I assume probably yes, but don’t know if that is a certainty either.

from what I read the one closing is co-ed but the other two single sex. (?)

Labour minister referred to sleaze watchdog for failing to declare 20-year friendship with author of IFS report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-minister-friends-private-school-tax-report/

Author of IFS report now admits more than twice as many kids could be forced out of private schools as his report said (90,000 or 15%, not 40,000 or 7%).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/11/private-school-pupil-exodus-vat-report/

Absolutely disgraceful. Labour Party of today make me feel physically sick.

Those numbers probably don’t even include the numbers moving because of their school closure - because they had zero clue (nor care) what the impact of their fcking idiotic envy-ridden policy would be on children (and parents / school staff).

Non paywalled version of the first article, couldn’t find one for the second:

https://archive.ph/OX69x

Wasn’t the cut off for public purse not making money out of this a 10% contraction and the justification for not exempting send DC by government was literally the need to raise money?

Wow.
This is horrendous. I thought the tories were bad, this lot are exactly the same. Actually, worse in a way because they were so sanctimonious during the election.

Yes

The Adam Smith institute calculated that with a 15% drop-off there'd be a cost to the taxpayer of about £300 million.
Linear interpolation between their 5% and 15% scenarios says the break-even point at which this policy makes nothing at all and starts to cost the taxpayer money is around 13%.

https://www.adamsmith.org/news/applying-vat-to-independent-school-fees-could-cost-as-much-as-16-billion

On the subject of school closures, the article linked below states "the fallout is going to be somewhere between 10% and 20% closures over the next three years". That would be between 250 and 500 schools.

https://www.internationalaccountingbulletin.com/news/vat-imposition-on-private-schools-could-lead-to-widespread-closures/?cf-view

So (while the Nolan principles are in question due to the BFFs and that is very important to look at) there is a second more pressing issue that it’s been confirmed the moneymaking justification has gone. I can’t read the paywalled article in Telegraph but that’s awful if so.

Do the OBR or HMRC who based their figures on a much lower number get to recalculate them now? Can the public ask for that? what is the democratic process by which to try to reverse such a miscalculated law, assuming the government won’t reverse it proactively? The Lib Dems say they don’t support it and the Tories don’t support it.

This policy if I understand correctly will be actively taking money off kids in state schools to house kids coming out from private into state schools,(new entrants to state education who would anecdotally be disproportionately likely I would say to have more expensive SEND needs but I can’t evidence that nationally). hopefully that’s being measured but I note the poor record keeping in general by government of private school pupil demographics which has been a significant disadvantage in trying to oppose this move, it has left the sector very vulnerable.

As closures won’t be reversible, and higher fees won’t come down, the move continuing will disrupt jobs and livelihoods and families of both private school pupils and teachers and other staff ? And with no benefits to the overall public purse?

this is worth a read https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10125/CBP-10125.pdf#page20

Glee and spite, well firstly, I've followed these threads carefully and there have been isolated comments but nothing significant. But secondly, glee and spite work both ways. I live in an area with many private schools (mine went to state) and in social situations we had some unbelievable comments from private school parents and have seen the same on these threads - not doing our best for our children, not ambitious enough, not willing to make enough sacrifices, 'we just couldn't risk state school', I could go on.