Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

Just a little reality check for those saying private school children can just move to state schools. Bucks & Herts have very few in year places available at present. In Herts there are several in East Herts but West is extremely pressured.

Now look at house prices in all the towns in this area with decent transport links into London. All of these places have very distinct school catchment areas and, I think, only one or two has in year places available currently.

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE (FULL GRAMMAR)
Beaconsfield - £1,040,000
Little Chalfont - £899,000
Amersham - £755,000
Chesham - £496,000
Aylesbury - £337,000

HERTFORDSHIRE (COMPREHENSIVE)
Harpenden - £926,000
Berkhamsted - £723,000
St Albans - £623,000
Tring - £560,000
Hemel Hempstead - £429,000

So where do all the children go? Unless people move to East Herts or the councils suddenly add in extra classes in these areas then they have nowhere to go.

My children are at private - one with minor SEN for which they would never get an EHCP - and people opting to move to state at the natural break points (11+ and 16+) has increased dramatically. At sixth form applications to state are up 30%.

People are going to be up in arms at all these private school kids “taking away” places from those who could never afford private. These children are just as entitled to the places as anyone else.

This is the reality of an ill thought out policy that has been rushed through. Whilst I obviously don’t want to pay VAT, if it genuinely went to help improving education for all children then I would have no problem. It’s politics of envy and will make absolutely no difference to the great majority of state educated children.

It’s also a great distraction from the real issue that the state system is approaching breaking point after years of under funding. I’m not sure how private schools caused that?

“Both of our local outstanding comps, with progress scores well over one, have top set maths classes of over 40” @shockeditellyou - you don’t know how many of the 40 get help at home or tutoring or have access to excellent online subscription resources. Or do you?
Most children from educated households in top sets are supported one way or another.

State teachers are all knuckle dragging incompetents until they go to work at private schools when they turn into superheroes. Funny that.

The local authorities do pay for independent school places where they cannot find a suitable place in a state school.

There's 5 LA funded kids in our school...

Would you move to a job where you got insulted, sworn at and were at risk of physical abuse?

Not to state schools, I have teachers being beaten up for goodness sake.

And that’s not what I’m saying.

I’m saying if you can’t cope with a job so you move to an easier one why would you suddenly be welcomed to all other areas of employment?

It's not about being "good enough" it's about not wanting a chair thrown at you, whilst being told to fuck off.

Of course they can change careers, that's exactly what will happen. There's not going to be a huge influx of teachers moving from Inde to State ... There's just going to be larger classes

Who says they can’t cope? They just want don’t want to.

You don’t have to be worthy in life.

Do you have a lot of private schools in your area?

Because unless you do, the level of vacancies in your schools in any going to make much difference; the places won’t be needed there. Also, as you acknowledge, they’re in the wrong year groups.

Remember research shows as no correlation between class size and learning

Remember kids with SEND and sensory issues for whom class size and noise is the difference between them being able to attend school and access learning, or not

Because you won't be putting your reason for moving from a teacher into an Independent School into a new role as (let's say) an office administrator as "uhhh because it's too hard at state schools waaaah". You'll cite lots of reasons like "change in lace/career" etc

Yes for SEND children

What would be a real shame is if lots of private schools go bust and all the grounds etc get sold off to private investors on the cheap. So the Government really does need to have a contingency plan to takeover schools where there is need and work closely with local authorities and provide funding accordingly. I can’t see how anyone could argue with that. It’s very worrying that they couldn’t even organise HMRC to be staffed adequately to have the registrations done in time, hardly rocket science. Translates to zero foreplanning and further loss to the country. There is huge real estate value in a lot of these schools and tons and tons of jobs. That cannot be denied regardless of anyone’s opinions on the social equality aspect of private schooling.

My point about not being good enough was that they will move out of teaching if they are not good enough teachers to get work in the remaining private schools. The best teachers will still have jobs.

Because a lot of children, particularly those with disabilities like asd find a big class overwhelming and can't learn in it, but they have the capability for 'top set' learning.

In a lot of comps, the small class they need to learn and feel comfortable, might only be taught the material for the lower tier paper. Not always.

Why should the government take over private schools? If they sell off their grounds cheap that is a private matter and nothing to do with the government.

Yeah, No. Many of them are living in school owned properties, so when they get made redundant will become homeless/looking for rentals in an inflated market that they cannot afford on a state school salary. Most also left the state sector years ago because of class sizes/under-resourcing/pay/etc so will likely chose NOT to return but either change careers or take overseas placements - where the schools will offer free/subsidised places for their kids, as part of their salary package which is also a factor in why they teach in particular schools as it offered the work life/balance of being able to have their children in the same location as their work. Most also offered all the state and community groups free use of their facilities in order to maintain charity status - they’ll no longer need to do that (or may close and be unable to) so all the state schools will have to raise funds or charge parents for swimming and after school sports activities as they will now have to pay hire costs.

And of course there is the fact that the independent school kids who arrive in the state sector will do so with their privately obtained SEN diagnoses, whilest kids from poorer families will remain languishing on the CAMHS waitlist for 3-5 years. This means they will get SEN in-school provision years ahead of their less privileged peers, and parents will now also have the funds to get expert support in taking on the LEA to secure their EHCPs very quickly, also by-passing all the other state school kids in the system. So, yeah, levelling up and equal access to education is totally going to happen… VAT is totally the answer to ensuring every child, and children form less privileged backgrounds especially, get a shot at a better education and support. Not. 🤦🏽‍♀️

Good! My children are disadvantaged because they don't go to private school. So the less that go the better.

The reason that independent school teachers won’t move into the state system is because lots don’t want to, not because they can’t cope. Most teachers would prefer to choose a school where they can teach keen, well behaved pupils rather than a school with behaviour issues where the job is more about crowd control rather than educating.

State schools are facing a recruitment crisis. They won’t be choosing to turn down experienced teachers if they applied for the vacancies.

Yes, and what do you think is going to happen to the SEND kids in independent schools that are there because there's no provision in the state sector, and the parents are funding the places..
But just can't afford another £6k per year or whatever. And the SEND kids that are already in funded places at those same schools?

School A closes, because parents can't afford the fee rises... , and 500 kids have no school. 350 move to other independent schools. 150 need placing in state schools, if which 40 have severe SEND, 5 of which are LA funded.

School B is staying open, having increased fees to £27k, accepting pupils from school A to keep it afloat.

Where will the LA lace those children when they're having to perhaps find places? If they can't find a place in a state school magically (because they're already funding 5 of them...) where will they go? It is possible that the La may be funding 15 places from September 2025...

Interestingly, our local authority doesn’t accept private diagnosis.

I also don’t believe many middle-age teachers in work based accommodation don’t have a house they left on the side certainly my experience anyway.

Teachers are leaving because they’re not paid enough. The level of pay has not kept up with inflation. It’s a simple as that.

But the ‘best teachers’ have kids in local schools/or the private school where they work, or have partners with jobs in other sectors, so are tied to particular geographies where they may have mortgages… but where there may not be teaching jobs or equivalent head of department vacancies.

You can be the best teacher in the world, but if your family have lived in a certain town forever and your partner works locally, there will NOT an abundance of equivalent jobs waiting for you.

@CautiousLurker01 Tied housing to employment is always precarious. We had to help my in-laws when they lost their tied housing. The staff in tied housing will have to find somewhere else to rent. It is tough out there, but they will have better contacts than most.

Privately obtained SEN diagnosis are often not accepted in the state sector.

I have not read any state schools or community groups complaining about the lack of access that will happen to private school facilities. Maybe the kind of schools that will withdraw these facilities really were not providing anything of high value after all?

@CautiousLurker01 then they will have to do what people like myself have had to, change careers. Its hard, but a common experience during a working lifetime.