Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

All the ISI inspections are published online in full.

There are lots of vacancies in plenty of those areas of work.

“What's Oxford got to do with it?”

It is a form of elite education isn’t it? That people waive around to prove they are “clever”. Academic ability appears to have nothing to do with being competent at running a country! There should be far more people in politics at the top level with actual real life 20 years plus business and industry and scientific experience. Not your Reeves retail banking nonsense. It’s why this country is going to the dogs. We are run by playground Oxford union politicians with no real life or proper real world experience. Do you think Oxford and Westminster are real life? They are not- biggest bubble of them all. And you want to blame private schools instead.

"By the way, the entire Cabinet is state-educated now"
This is possibly the greatest own-goal and advertisement for private education that anyone could make.

"just 3,000 children will drop out of private education this year "
wishful thinking and completely inaccurate. 13,000 have already left. It'll be far more by July.

" the class size thing won’t matter in 4/5 years".

This is also wishful thinking. The bulge years with the largest cohorts are current year 6 and 7. In 4/5 years they'll still be in the system and doing their GCSEs so that's the point at which the secondary system will be under maximum pressure. Its true that falling birthrate will mean more spaces in lower primary, but it won't help availability of secondary places at all. It's also likely that the falling birthrate on top of VAT will cause entire prep schools to close, which will create enormous logistical problems for local authorities which will have to place hundreds of children at once. It's likely to cause carnage in areas like Edinburgh which have a higher than average percentage of pupils in private education and almost no capacity in state schools.

Indeed teachers won't move to state.

They'd be eaten alive.

They'll go into industry or tutoring.

I think you have an outdated attitude and information about Oxbridge these days.

From my experience the people who go there are so amazingly clever and worked very hard in intense terms , learn to prioritise and negotiate.

They are also increasingly largely state educated

They can’t cope with 30 kids yet they’re gonna be welcomed into other jobs?

It might well end up with the local councils finding places in the remaining independent schools!

So the government will be paying for the independent spaces... At a higher rate!

samarrange · Yesterday 23:29
I don't have access to the article, but a friend who does tells me that it reports that just 3,000 children will drop out of private education this year as a result of this measure.

Just because this article says just 3000 children will drop out of private education doesn’t mean it’s true. The journalist who wrote it can’t foresee the future any more than the rest of us can.

Yep.

Why wouldn't they be?

Ince you've taught in a lovely school where children are engaged, polite and focused enough...you're not going to step into a workplace where kids shout, swear and physically assault you.

The ISI compliance reports only say if various minimum standards are met or not met. The minimum standards are low.
The educational quality inspection reports give headline judgements of various standards under the headings excellent, good, sound or unsatisfactory. There is no overall rating of the school. Any recommendations read like very broad brush strokes so it is hard to decipher what the real issues are.
These reports in no way compare to an Ofsted report. Any school failing to get an excellent ISI report must be of a very poor standard. But some parents still pay to send their children to such schools.

You said that the entire cabinet was state educated. That is factually incorrect. Starmer attended a private school for part of his education. The defence secretary attended private school for 6th form. Lammy attended a boarding school; state boarding schools charge fees (bursaries are available). More than 10% of the cabinet attended fee paying schools.

With regard to state boarding schools, I don’t have an issue with them. However, I don’t think they should be free from VAT if other boarding schools have to charge VAT for exactly the same provision.

I think some private schools will close, I think the charitable status of private schools is wrong as they aren't a charity. However, regarding the VAT on fees I disagree as state schools don't pay VAT or most don't on purchases as it's education.

Regarding ofsted - it is tougher than the independent school inspectorate where teaching is concerned but independent schools are subject to ofsted safeguarding I believe.

The Labour Party in my view seem to be tackling marginal groups ie independent schools.farmers, wasps women, trail hunting rather than the big issue which is immigration whilst making a mess of the economy. Tbh I think the new Labour MPs ought to start making career plans as they won't have a job in 4 1/2 years time.

anyway, I’ve yet to see where these thousands of kids are applying to because our place (very good normal school) has yet to see this influx

@fanaticalfairy or if it's a large independent in an area with no state capacity, the government might have to step in and rescue the school. because - who knew! - the school was necessary to the local community.

Adults can change careers if they want to. If they are not good enough teachers to get jobs in the remaining private schools, they can seek work elsewhere.

Because they’re incapable

Private schools benefit from the Teachers’ Pension Scheme, although many are pulling out of that due to the increased costs.

And why are people surprised that a Labour government is implementing some ideology-driven policies? They aren’t banning private education, just removing a tax break from people who are privileged enough to have thousands of pounds spare every year to afford private fees.

I also haven’t seen numbers showing that private school closures are happening at a rate faster than state schools; we are losing schools round here because of demographics. I wholeheartedly agree with a PP who pointed out that communities are being doubly screwed via house prices and then people not using village amenities such as the school.

And if all those private schools are so great, then they’ll be able to make cost savings, as many excellent state schools have been doing relentlessly for many years.

Quite the opposite of diversity if everyone is the same…

There is no way the local authority will do that.
Tbh if you send your children to private school you should make sure you are in a secure enough financial position not to have to move them during exam years. Most parents will have done this.

“They can’t cope with 30 kids yet they’re gonna be welcomed into other jobs?”

It is the unmet SEND needs and lack of school readiness and behaviour issues that MANY state school teachers are not able to cope with anymore - on top of the massive paperwork culture rather than just get on with teaching. That’s why the whole profession is bleeding dry. Most teachers want to crack on with teaching school ready kids the content not being a substitute parent/social worker/psychologist. If you have a health service and other services that fail to meet the needs of children and a pandemic which sets kids back massively (especially socially and emotionally) and a sugar and screen addicted population, that is what happens. But keep blaming the private school scarecrow. Won’t improve anything.
It isn’t the falling birthdate that is the problem. It’s the falling rate of the tax payer who actually contributes into the system over and above what they take out. The falling birthdate will be made up more than adequately by immigration.

@Araminta1003 then these adults can change careers.

And why do people keep banging on about class sizes? Both of our local outstanding comps, with progress scores well over one, have top set maths classes of over 40. It means that the bottom sets have sizes of around 15. But apparently state school teachers are all knuckle dragging incompetents…

Because it’s not all about outstanding academic achievements. My DC wouldn’t cope in a class of 30+ (I know, we’ve tried). Class size matters to them.

There might be some differences in your school but the situation there is not the same for most state schools.

There is no overall rating of the school.

This is the same as OFSTED now.

These reports in no way compare to an Ofsted report.

The ISI report for our private school is far more detailed and helpful that the OFSTED report for our catchment state school. In fact, it’s twice as long.