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Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

1000 replies

ICouldBeVioletSky · 25/12/2024 22:04

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

The Independent Schools Council says the threat of closures after the imposition of VAT on fees is ‘very real’

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

OP posts:
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16
Another76543 · 27/12/2024 09:27

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:18

Yeah, No. Many of them are living in school owned properties, so when they get made redundant will become homeless/looking for rentals in an inflated market that they cannot afford on a state school salary. Most also left the state sector years ago because of class sizes/under-resourcing/pay/etc so will likely chose NOT to return but either change careers or take overseas placements - where the schools will offer free/subsidised places for their kids, as part of their salary package which is also a factor in why they teach in particular schools as it offered the work life/balance of being able to have their children in the same location as their work. Most also offered all the state and community groups free use of their facilities in order to maintain charity status - they’ll no longer need to do that (or may close and be unable to) so all the state schools will have to raise funds or charge parents for swimming and after school sports activities as they will now have to pay hire costs.

And of course there is the fact that the independent school kids who arrive in the state sector will do so with their privately obtained SEN diagnoses, whilest kids from poorer families will remain languishing on the CAMHS waitlist for 3-5 years. This means they will get SEN in-school provision years ahead of their less privileged peers, and parents will now also have the funds to get expert support in taking on the LEA to secure their EHCPs very quickly, also by-passing all the other state school kids in the system. So, yeah, levelling up and equal access to education is totally going to happen… VAT is totally the answer to ensuring every child, and children form less privileged backgrounds especially, get a shot at a better education and support. Not. 🤦🏽‍♀️

Those who think that private school teachers will move into the thousands of unfilled state vacancies are deluded. There’s an increasing problem of teachers (experienced and newly qualified) moving abroad to teach.

https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2023/nov/05/newly-qualified-teachers-quit-uk-for-schools-abroad-due-to-abject-pay-and-conditions

I’m not entirely sure where the government think they are getting the 6500 new teachers from. They can’t even fill the current vacancies, let alone thousands more

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:27

Catshit · 27/12/2024 09:21

Interestingly, our local authority doesn’t accept private diagnosis.

I also don’t believe many middle-age teachers in work based accommodation don’t have a house they left on the side certainly my experience anyway.

Ours does because the clinicians providing them are often the same ones doing them in the NHS. And it has no choice when they get taken to court by well-funded parents.

Frowningprovidence · 27/12/2024 09:28

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:18

Yeah, No. Many of them are living in school owned properties, so when they get made redundant will become homeless/looking for rentals in an inflated market that they cannot afford on a state school salary. Most also left the state sector years ago because of class sizes/under-resourcing/pay/etc so will likely chose NOT to return but either change careers or take overseas placements - where the schools will offer free/subsidised places for their kids, as part of their salary package which is also a factor in why they teach in particular schools as it offered the work life/balance of being able to have their children in the same location as their work. Most also offered all the state and community groups free use of their facilities in order to maintain charity status - they’ll no longer need to do that (or may close and be unable to) so all the state schools will have to raise funds or charge parents for swimming and after school sports activities as they will now have to pay hire costs.

And of course there is the fact that the independent school kids who arrive in the state sector will do so with their privately obtained SEN diagnoses, whilest kids from poorer families will remain languishing on the CAMHS waitlist for 3-5 years. This means they will get SEN in-school provision years ahead of their less privileged peers, and parents will now also have the funds to get expert support in taking on the LEA to secure their EHCPs very quickly, also by-passing all the other state school kids in the system. So, yeah, levelling up and equal access to education is totally going to happen… VAT is totally the answer to ensuring every child, and children form less privileged backgrounds especially, get a shot at a better education and support. Not. 🤦🏽‍♀️

SEN support is technically needs led and not diagnosis led.

The ehcp process will still be painful and not quick! People will still apply for an assessment, be turned down, appeal, go through the 20 odd week assesment, get a crap ehcp back, go to tribunal to get it right (long wait) then get an ehcp which wont be delivered, and will then have to enforce it.

I'm not saying it won't be faster than someone who cant pay for evidence or negotiate a tribunal, but I dont want people thinking they will achieve this very quickly and easily.

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:31

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:27

Ours does because the clinicians providing them are often the same ones doing them in the NHS. And it has no choice when they get taken to court by well-funded parents.

This is why the government is relooking at SEN provision. The original feedback they are getting from consultation is that too many times support goes to children of parents with money to fight for the support, rather than the children with the highest needs. So I would hope this would change.

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:31

And some countries like Scotland do not have ECHPs. The whole system may change.

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:34

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:23

@CautiousLurker01 Tied housing to employment is always precarious. We had to help my in-laws when they lost their tied housing. The staff in tied housing will have to find somewhere else to rent. It is tough out there, but they will have better contacts than most.

Privately obtained SEN diagnosis are often not accepted in the state sector.

I have not read any state schools or community groups complaining about the lack of access that will happen to private school facilities. Maybe the kind of schools that will withdraw these facilities really were not providing anything of high value after all?

More than half the LEA funded kids I know at my local private specialist school for boys with ND and other SEN needs started with private assessments. The families then found the funds to take the LEA to court for their ECHP (between £30-45k each) where the LEA required their people to confirm assessment or, as it was the same clinician providing the assessment privately as would be hired to do so by the LEA/within CAMHS, simply accepted the diagnosis.

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:37

Frowningprovidence · 27/12/2024 09:28

SEN support is technically needs led and not diagnosis led.

The ehcp process will still be painful and not quick! People will still apply for an assessment, be turned down, appeal, go through the 20 odd week assesment, get a crap ehcp back, go to tribunal to get it right (long wait) then get an ehcp which wont be delivered, and will then have to enforce it.

I'm not saying it won't be faster than someone who cant pay for evidence or negotiate a tribunal, but I dont want people thinking they will achieve this very quickly and easily.

20 weeks is quicker than the several years many children wait if their parents cannot afford to expedite matters by hiring legal representation. The impact upon learning and MH for a child languishing unsupported in a state school for several years is brutal (and I know families that have done this because the school would not even agree to make the referral or acknowledge there might be an SEN need).

Another76543 · 27/12/2024 09:37

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:23

@CautiousLurker01 Tied housing to employment is always precarious. We had to help my in-laws when they lost their tied housing. The staff in tied housing will have to find somewhere else to rent. It is tough out there, but they will have better contacts than most.

Privately obtained SEN diagnosis are often not accepted in the state sector.

I have not read any state schools or community groups complaining about the lack of access that will happen to private school facilities. Maybe the kind of schools that will withdraw these facilities really were not providing anything of high value after all?

There have been numerous media reports about the effect of the policy on facilities being made available to the public. Swimming clubs especially are struggling. With many council run pools being closed, swimming clubs are increasingly relying on private schools to provide facilities. Where schools have previously made these facilities available for free or at low cost, they are having to reconsider this.

https://www.bedfordindependent.co.uk/bedford-school-defends-changes-to-pool-use-as-historic-swimming-club-claims-theyve-been-left-in-deep-water/

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/02/marlborough-college-cancels-summer-schools-budget-tax-raids/

Bedford School defends changes to pool use as historic swimming club claims they've been left in deep water - Bedford Independent

Bedford School has further defended its decision to change how swimming clubs can use its pool after Bedford Swim Squad (BSS), formerly...

https://www.bedfordindependent.co.uk/bedford-school-defends-changes-to-pool-use-as-historic-swimming-club-claims-theyve-been-left-in-deep-water

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:40

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:31

This is why the government is relooking at SEN provision. The original feedback they are getting from consultation is that too many times support goes to children of parents with money to fight for the support, rather than the children with the highest needs. So I would hope this would change.

They can’t do it quick enough, IMHO. No child should have to languish unsupported or have their care predicated on parents who understand/can play the system more effectively and advocate for them better. In an ideal world, every child would be regularly assessed for SEN or additional needs throughout their 13 years in education… but we are already struggling to fill basic teaching spaces so won’t hold my breath.

Another76543 · 27/12/2024 09:43

Jellytrain · 27/12/2024 09:19

Good! My children are disadvantaged because they don't go to private school. So the less that go the better.

How is the policy going to help your children though? Children moving from private to state puts even more pressure on the state system. Around 7% of children go to private school. How is it “good” if that figure reduces to, say, 5%? Those 5% still have an advantage, but the state system would be under even more pressure.

Frowningprovidence · 27/12/2024 09:45

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:37

20 weeks is quicker than the several years many children wait if their parents cannot afford to expedite matters by hiring legal representation. The impact upon learning and MH for a child languishing unsupported in a state school for several years is brutal (and I know families that have done this because the school would not even agree to make the referral or acknowledge there might be an SEN need).

I agree it is quicker and I did say that. I absolutely agree that poor chikdren have no chance.

I just didn't want people thinking this will be quick and easy for them if they are weighing up whether they can still afford fees.

The process I outlined is not 20 weeks. That's one stage of it after they agree to assess and the first draft will be crap. The tribunal backlog is great. It will be at least a year and very frustrating.

Diomi · 27/12/2024 09:45

fanaticalfairy · 27/12/2024 08:52

Indeed teachers won't move to state.

They'd be eaten alive.

They'll go into industry or tutoring.

Teachers move between the two quite a bit without getting eaten alive. It is true that quite a few move from independent schools to private tuition but a lot also go to international private schools. That seems to be a growing industry.

EnidSpyton · 27/12/2024 09:45

Catshit · 27/12/2024 09:10

Not to state schools, I have teachers being beaten up for goodness sake.

And that’s not what I’m saying.

I’m saying if you can’t cope with a job so you move to an easier one why would you suddenly be welcomed to all other areas of employment?

Working in a private school is not easier than working in a state school. It’s just different. The demands and pressures are different, the cohorts are different, the workload is different. Both jobs have their own challenges and difficulties and rewards. And they suit different types of teachers and personalities.

Most of us working in private schools as teachers do so because we want to be able to teach our subject to the highest possible level within a secondary school setting, with children who want to learn, in an environment where they can learn. We also have to deal with many of the same behavioural and pastoral issues as our state school colleagues, but with the adequate time and resource to manage them effectively, and usually parents who support us in managing those issues. As such, we get to be the best teachers we can be in an environment where we’re not abused or forced to work impossible hours to get an unmanageable workload completed.

I know some of my colleagues would struggle to manage extreme behaviours that can be seen in state schools, for sure. But I also know plenty of state school teachers who also can’t manage the behaviour they’re faced with on a day to day basis, and neither should they bloody well have to. It’s not a race to the bottom, ffs.

I taught in state schools for years, and I could do it again if I absolutely had to. It’s not that private school teachers can’t cope in state. It’s that we don’t want to have to. Frankly, no one should have to cope with what so many state schools require of teachers on a day to day basis. That’s the problem that Labour should be sorting out with their education policies. Not taxing people who are trying to opt out of their children being part of a broken education system Labour currently have no meaningful policies in place to fix.

AnotherNewt · 27/12/2024 09:47

Araminta1003 · 27/12/2024 08:08

“We have paid next term's fees. And the school made a point that there is a massive backlog of private schools receiving their VAT registration numbers”

Complete shambles! They have had since July to sort this out and it has been years in the planning as we are always told. In addition, Rachel Reeves has 14 days to respond to the juidicial review filed 20 December. The rules are clear as to when delays are allowed and when not. These muppets haven’t planned ZILCH!

I think rigor in planning and implementing policies ended when John Major left office.

And that’s do long ago now that people have utterly forgotten what administrative competence is like

Heathbear · 27/12/2024 09:49

Fordian · 27/12/2024 00:07

For me, so many of the sob stories have been eye-opener.

'St Aloyisious is, sadly closing. It had educated children aged 4-18, 250 of them with a staff of 80' 😞

17 kids per staff member???

Wow.

On the staffing list for a local two form entry primary state school - so 420 intake, there are 70 people listed. NB people not FTE. So teachers and TAs (many of whom work part time) lunchtime assistants, office staff, caretaker etc.

shockeditellyou · 27/12/2024 09:50

CautiousLurker01 · 27/12/2024 09:23

But the ‘best teachers’ have kids in local schools/or the private school where they work, or have partners with jobs in other sectors, so are tied to particular geographies where they may have mortgages… but where there may not be teaching jobs or equivalent head of department vacancies.

You can be the best teacher in the world, but if your family have lived in a certain town forever and your partner works locally, there will NOT an abundance of equivalent jobs waiting for you.

What has that got to do with the price of fish? That’s true of pretty much every industry, Except that in many cases, teachers also benefit from substantial discounts on school fees for their own children, or employer-provided accommodation.

None of the job-related arguments here are unique to education. There are no good reasons why private sector teachers should enjoy special benefits over and above any other industry.

And can we give it a rest about private schools being beacons of the community? All of the private schools round here charge for use of their facilities, and they are only available at odd times when the school is not using them. And in one other case, their support offering to a state school is letting the children come over to take Ancient Greek for GCSE outside of the school day. Which is, as I’m sure you will agree, a real boon to social mobility.

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:55

AnotherNewt · 27/12/2024 09:47

I think rigor in planning and implementing policies ended when John Major left office.

And that’s do long ago now that people have utterly forgotten what administrative competence is like

Every government since has cut bureaucracy. What that means in practice is staff to do this kind of work.

fanaticalfairy · 27/12/2024 10:01

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 09:31

This is why the government is relooking at SEN provision. The original feedback they are getting from consultation is that too many times support goes to children of parents with money to fight for the support, rather than the children with the highest needs. So I would hope this would change.

And where's that extra money coming from, because the VAT in independent schools fees won't cover it, especially after they've claimed back capital expenditure for the last decade, and ongoing claims in the future...

MerryMaker · 27/12/2024 10:04

@fanaticalfairy Government spend on SEN has been increasing every year and yet the outcomes for SEN children are not. It is about using the budget more wisely, not increasing it. And using it for the children who most need help, not those who can fight best for support.

Saturdayssandwichsociety · 27/12/2024 10:04

IVTT · 26/12/2024 16:40

I have a child in Year 6. From the parents I know well, 21% say they will now not move into Yr 7 in Sept 2025. It remains to be seen what the actual number will be of course.
Then there are the parents I don’t know so well and the children that would have come from State Primary that won’t come.
This is a high-performing and popular school where kids join in Yr 6 normally to avoid the entrance exam. No-one joined in Yr 6 this Sept.

I hope everyone rejoicing in the demise of these schools will be equally enthusiastic when their kids are in classes of 40. There is no limit on secondary class sizes after all, so pack them in! I’m sure teachers will be delighted at the prospect too.

Even if every single privately educated child left and joined state it would not bring state classes to 40.
Only 6% of children are privately educated. Also in the lower the years at the moment there's capacity in the state system due to the falling birth rate. Tbh the state system actually needs more kids coming in at the bottom as schools arent as viable if they aren't full.

fanaticalfairy · 27/12/2024 10:04

Araminta1003 · 27/12/2024 09:15

What would be a real shame is if lots of private schools go bust and all the grounds etc get sold off to private investors on the cheap. So the Government really does need to have a contingency plan to takeover schools where there is need and work closely with local authorities and provide funding accordingly. I can’t see how anyone could argue with that. It’s very worrying that they couldn’t even organise HMRC to be staffed adequately to have the registrations done in time, hardly rocket science. Translates to zero foreplanning and further loss to the country. There is huge real estate value in a lot of these schools and tons and tons of jobs. That cannot be denied regardless of anyone’s opinions on the social equality aspect of private schooling.

Where are they getting this money from to buy buildings?

comedia24 · 27/12/2024 10:05

Anyone who thinks that labour is going to improve SEN provision with no money, no plan and no good ideas is suffering from a surfeit of unwarranted enthusiasm. I'd love to think you're right but there's no talk of the root and branch reform or money that's needed.

And yes, all government systems (health, education, benefits, you name it) reward the more able to navigate and the SEN 'offering' is no different is it...

Another76543 · 27/12/2024 10:08

Saturdayssandwichsociety · 27/12/2024 10:04

Even if every single privately educated child left and joined state it would not bring state classes to 40.
Only 6% of children are privately educated. Also in the lower the years at the moment there's capacity in the state system due to the falling birth rate. Tbh the state system actually needs more kids coming in at the bottom as schools arent as viable if they aren't full.

There are around 20% in the private sector at 6th form level. At secondary level especially (particularly years 9 and 10), many areas have no capacity in the state sector for extra pupils.

Catshit · 27/12/2024 10:09

I’m interested that the thread has grown to nd about SEN kids only

like private schools are sen schools only

fanaticalfairy · 27/12/2024 10:09

Jellytrain · 27/12/2024 09:19

Good! My children are disadvantaged because they don't go to private school. So the less that go the better.

They won't be advantaged by the closures .. in fact it will just increase the divide between state and independent.

When people are sending 3 kids through Eton at £52k+ a child, do you really think they'd struggle to send them for an extra £10k.each?

They won't.

The wealthy are SO MASSIVELY wealthy, it makes no odds.

It's the people who are putting their kids through inde schools with help of grandparents etc, because their child is SEND etc that are going to be disadvantaged. Your child will have more kids in their class ... More disruption etc.

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